The death toll from Hurricane Helene in the southeastern United States reached 180 on Wednesday morning, October 2, according to CNN tracking. One of the three deadliest hurricanes. The only hurricanes during this period that claimed more lives than Helena were Katrina (2005) and Maria (2017). Furthermore, the only hurricane more deadly than Helene in the past 60 years was Camille (1969)—a storm similar to Helene that caused most of the 259 deaths in the U.S. Caused by flash flooding in the Appalachian Mountains (Virginia).
These figures include direct and indirect deaths. Direct deaths are caused directly by storms and storm surges, while indirect deaths may be caused by traffic accidents during evacuation, lack of life-saving medical treatment due to power outages, etc. For Katrina and Maria, assessments conducted months or years after the hurricanes made landfall also took into account “excess deaths,” comparing the overall death rate in the affected area to what would have been expected at the same time of year if the hurricanes had not struck. Rates are compared. A study by George Washington University commissioned by the Puerto Rican government estimated that between 2,658 and 3,290 excess deaths occurred in the six months between Maria's landfall and long recovery (September 2017 to February 2018). Puerto Rico cites the midpoint of that range, 2,975, as its official death toll.
Like Maria, Katrina caused many indirect deaths in hard-to-reach places in the weeks to months after landfall. A 2007 study based on death notices in the New Orleans Times-Picayune estimated that 2,358 more people died in the area between January and June 2006 than between 2002 and 2004. In 2023, the National Hurricane Center revised Katrina's official death toll from 1,833 to 1,392, based on more than 1,000 medical records from storm victims in Louisiana and Mississippi, based on two studies published by the American Meteorological Society.
Watch tropical storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico
A large area of low pressure over Central America, southern Mexico, and surrounding waters is expected to interact with a stationary front and Tropical Depression 11-E in the eastern Pacific to create a tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week. If such a storm does develop, the chances of it becoming a devastating landfalling hurricane like Helen are slim. The storm is more likely to be a large, unorganized heavy rainfall event along the southern Gulf Coast and much of Florida.
Lukewarm model support for development
The massive low-pressure system we're looking at — known as the Mesoamerican Gyre, a type of monsoon low — is a weak but broad area of surface low pressure that can persist for two weeks or more over Central America and adjacent areas. , including the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. They are most common in May, June, September, October and November. The circulation often triggers large, rainy tropical storms. Such a circulation formed in the Gulf of Mexico in June and became Tropical Storm Alberto. What is even more worrying is that the Central American circulation may also produce strong hurricanes, such as this year's Category 4 “Helen” and 2018's Category 5 “Michael”.
Fortunately, upper winds over the Gulf of Mexico are not conducive to the formation of a powerful hurricane over the coming week. On Wednesday morning, the GFS and European model cluster operations provided little support for hurricanes developing in the Gulf over the next week, favoring loosely organized heavy rainfall in the western Gulf before moving eastward, eventually bringing heavy Category 3 to 3 rain. six inches (76-152 mm) to most of Florida and parts of the southernmost U.S. Gulf Coast (Figure 2).
In the Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said the two-day and seven-day chances of tropical cyclones forming in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean are 0 percent and 40 percent, respectively.
Kirk can cross the Atlantic Ocean to level 4
For those who are fascinated by the power of hurricanes but lament the pain they cause, Kirk is a near-perfect storm. At 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Kirk was safely in the middle of the tropical Atlantic Ocean between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, about 1,250 miles (2,012 kilometers) apart. Maximum sustained winds reached 85 mph (137 km/h). Model consensus suggests that Kirk will skirt the west side of a strong subtropical ridge and then tilt north and northeast on a classic recurve path, away from land, until it becomes a centrally embedded post-tropical cyclone. Rapids. Eventually, posttropical kirk may affect northwestern Europe.
Kirk was actually on the glide path of becoming a major hurricane, being affected by light wind shear, a humid mid-atmosphere (65-70% relative humidity), and unusually warm temperatures near 29 degrees Celsius (84°) over the next few days. driven by sea surface temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification product run Wednesday morning reflects these near-optimal conditions, with Kirk having a 45% chance of becoming a Category 3 hurricane Thursday morning. The newer DTOPS model is more optimistic, giving Kirk a 69% chance of getting sustained winds of 140 mph (225 kph), the middle of the Category 4 wind range, Thursday night. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Kirk's winds will reach 115 knots (minimum Category 4 intensity) by Friday morning, followed by increased wind shear and eventually cooler sea temperatures and winds that will gradually weaken.
TD 13 is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Depression 13 was born at 11 a.m. ET Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (56 kph), and the National Hurricane Center predicted it would become Tropical Storm Leslie by Wednesday night. If so, it would become the fourth named storm during the open Atlantic week of active development that began with Isaac on Thursday, September 26 (when Helen was approaching peak intensity in the Gulf of Mexico).
TD 13 was located southeast of Hurricane Kirk in the eastern tropical Atlantic and had to withstand northwesterly wind shear from Kirk's outflow for some time. In response to steering currents in and around Kirk, the system will slowly move westward over the next few days, but will only gradually strengthen at best. By Friday, future Leslie should benefit from a slight or moderate shear drop as Kirk moves farther away. Combined with an unusually moist atmosphere (mid-level humidity of 75-80%) and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (about 29 degrees Celsius (84°F)), this should make future Leslie even more powerful, and it could become The eighth Atlantic hurricane this year this weekend. Leslie is not expected to move far enough south and west to affect the Leeward Islands before its return.
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