A large area of low pressure over Central America, southern Mexico, and surrounding waters is expected to interact with the stationary front and the remnants of Tropical Depression 11-E in the eastern Pacific to produce a tropical disturbance that may develop into a tropical storm. If such a storm develops, the chances of it becoming a devastating hurricane making landfall like Helen is low. This storm is more likely to be a large, unorganized system bringing heavy rain to Florida.
Moderate support for development mode
Fortunately, upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico are not conducive to the formation of a powerful hurricane in the coming week, and there will be a lot of dry air to interfere with its development. Runs of the GFS and European ensemble models Friday morning showed little support for hurricane development in the Gulf, instead favoring the formation of a weakly organized heavy rainfall system in the western Gulf before moving eastward, bringing three to seven inches (76 – 152 mm) to most of Florida. Florida is expected to see five days of heavy rain starting Sunday, regardless of whether a named storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
In the Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8 a.m. ET on Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave a 0% chance of a tropical or subtropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico within two days and a 40% chance of a tropical cyclone forming within seven days.
Aftermath of Hurricane Helen
There are many worthy charities that have helped out following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene and I encourage everyone to consider making a donation. What I support is the Partnership for Inclusive Disaster Strategies (formerly Portlight.org), founded by members of the Weather Underground community. Their focus is on the needs of people with disabilities.
