A large area of low pressure over Central America, southern Mexico and surrounding waters is expected to interact with a stalled front from the eastern Pacific and the remnants of Tropical Depression 11-E to create a tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical or subtropical zone in the Gulf of Mexico next week storm. If such a storm does develop, the chances of it becoming a devastating landfalling hurricane like Helen are slim. For Florida, the storm is more likely to be a massive, chaotic, heavy rainfall event.
Lukewarm model support for development
Fortunately, upper winds over the Gulf of Mexico are not conducive to the formation of a powerful hurricane over the coming week, and there will be plenty of dry air to interfere with development. Friday morning's GFS and European model constellations offer little support for a developing hurricane in the Gulf, instead favoring loose, heavy rainfall in the western part of the Gulf before moving eastward, bringing three to seven inches of heavy rain (76-152 mm ) to most of Florida (Figure 2). Florida is expected to see five days of heavy rain starting Sunday, regardless of whether a named storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
In the Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8 a.m. ET on Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave the two-day and seven-day chances of a tropical or subtropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico at 0 percent and 40 percent, respectively.
Kirk peaks as a Cat 4 in the open Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk reached its peak as a Category 4 storm at 5 a.m. EST on Friday, with wind speeds of 145 mph (235 km/h) and a central pressure of 934 mb. After that, Hurricane Kirk has begun to slowly weaken. Kirk arrived safely in the mid-tropical Atlantic at 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, about 975 miles (1,570 kilometers) east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 140 mph (220 km/h), and satellite imagery showed Kirk was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, causing winds to weaken.
Models agree that Cyclone Kirk will continue to weaken over the next few days as it skirts the west side of a strong subtropical ridge and then follows a classic recurved path to the north and northeast, away from land, until it becomes Posttropical cyclones embedded in the midlatitude jet stream. Post-tropical Kirk is expected to bring strong winds of 50-60 mph (80-95 km/h) and heavy rain to western Europe on Wednesday.
Large waves from the Kirk reach the Leeward Islands on Friday and will affect Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday before impacting the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas on Sunday, causing potential rip currents and hazardous beach conditions.
Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie was located in the remote tropical Atlantic about 670 miles (1,075 kilometers) west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands at 11 a.m. EDT on Friday as an intensified tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), the central pressure is 996 mb. Leslie is expected to peak as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday with winds of 105 mph (170 km/h) and move northwest into the mid-Atlantic. Leslie does not pose a threat to any land area.
Hurricane Helen Aftermath
There are many worthy charities offering help following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene and I encourage everyone to consider making a donation. What I support is the Partnership for Inclusive Disaster Strategies (formerly Portlight.org), founded by members of the Weather Underground community. Their focus is on the needs of people with disabilities.
Bob Henson contributed to this article.
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