Roger Kayaza
Countless articles and opinion pieces in the popular media conflate every extreme weather event with climate change, feeding the basis of an emotionally driven narrative that climate change poses an existential threat. Remember, climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. This article describes how vendors mistakenly translate the extreme weather damage caused by rare weather patterns that stall storms into an example of climate change exacerbation when hurricanes occur in Hurricane Alley during hurricane season.
good energy hype
I was prompted to write this article when I saw an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times: Helen Destroyed My Hometown. I don’t want Anna Jane Joiner’s false hope story about climate change. She is the founder and CEO of Good Energy, a story-supporting nonprofit. Last March, I wrote an article about Irina Slaw, “Burn, Hollywood, Burn,” in which Slaw pointed out the blatant indoctrination and propaganda associated with “good energy”—“the Stories to support in the age of climate change”.
Joyner wrote after noticing that she had been checking the weather and evacuation plans as she prepared to board a plane for Climate Week in New York:
This hurricane spared me and my partner, but it devastated my hometown in the mountains of North Carolina. I've spent 20 years studying climate issues, living between Los Angeles and the Alabama Gulf Coast, and I've anticipated that one day we might lose our home. I also acknowledge that worsening fires, droughts, and heat waves threaten to make Southern California uninhabitable. But Asheville is considered a climate paradise. I always told my family we could never sell the house there. Incredibly, it was the first to be devastated by one of the worst climate disasters in U.S. history. Helen shows us that no place is safe.
Joiner went on to describe the damage caused by the storm. She then tried to connect the storm to climate change, making the climate change false hope argument:
Scientists estimate that climate change caused Hurricane Helene to increase rainfall by 50% in parts of the Carolinas and Georgia, dumping more than 40 megagallons of water. At Climate Week New York, an annual awareness event held during the United Nations General Assembly, the disconnect from this shocking reality is surreal. There were fancy parties, cheerful images of the sun and giant signs that read “HOPE.” The dominant themes are: We can solve this problem! We need to tell climate stories of hope! But the hurricane that swept through western North Carolina hundreds of miles from the ocean could not “solve” the problem. Focusing solely on optimism is like telling a cancer patient that as long as they keep a positive attitude, everything will be fine. At best, it comes across as disjointed; at worst, it feels callous. Yes, we can still prevent the worst impacts and must demand that our governments scale up solutions and take urgent action, but we cannot minimize the horror that is happening now, or that it will get worse in the years to come.
If you thought exaggeration couldn't get any worse, I have bad news:
Fossil fuel executives have known since the 1970s that burning oil, coal and natural gas would escalate climate catastrophe and bring suffering around the world. Yet they lied, sacrificed our safety for greed, and brought disaster to my hometown. If we don't stop them, their actions will leave today's children living on a planet even more hellish than Earth by the end of this century. This is not just a tragedy; it is a crime against humanity.
We're sorry that you have been affected by this. Joyner continues to argue that more stories are needed, and I'm sure she'll be happy to provide them to anyone with the money.
What happened in North Carolina felt unreal. I had no emotional framework for it and no story to help me. What I desperately need now are real stories to help us figure out how to be human in this changing world and how to face this overwhelming crisis with courage. Stories help us process our understandable fears, anxieties, sadness, despair, uncertainty, and anger and make us feel seen. These are stories that make us laugh—not because we ignore reality, but within it—and remind us that there is so much beauty left to strive for. It exemplifies how people can show extraordinary kindness and creativity amid the nightmare of climate disaster, just as they are doing right now in Asheville and the Black Hills. We need stories that expose the evils of the fossil fuel industry.
Reality
In the real world, her pessimism is unfounded. A quick review of recent articles from Watts Up With That suggests that the destruction of Helen's remains in the Asheville area was an extreme weather event rather than evidence of climate change.
Paul Homewood has a good summary of the Hurricane Helen data, which is highlighted here. Here's how he described the rainfall in Asheville:
According to data, a total of 13.98 inches (35.52 centimeters) of rain fell in Asheville, North Carolina, from September 25th to 27th. National Weather Service Record. storm flooded neighborhooddamaged roads, triggered landslides, knocked out power and cell phone service, and forced many residents to evacuate to temporary shelters. Record Hongfeng Observed on many rivers in the state. Flooding in southern Appalachia. Preliminary rainfall totals Parts of Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia were close to or exceeding 10 inches (25 centimeters).
Note that 14 inches of rainfall occurred in three days. Joyner cited a statement Climate change caused Hurricane Helene to increase rainfall by 50% in parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. I found the reference stating “In an interim rapid attribution statement, three scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory said rainfall in the 24 hours that Helen passed “has increased the likelihood of rainfall in these areas by a factor of 20 due to global warming.” Comparing the 24-hour period, Rainfall “The likelihood of rainfall in these areas has increased 20 times due to global warming.” Comparing 24 hours when referring to three-day storm totals clearly shows that storm movement is a major factor in rainfall amounts, and the attribution analysis here Something went wrong.
Charles Rotter's article Based on Steve McIntyre and Andy Revkin's observations on the real lessons to be learned from the storm, the arguments in Joyner's op-ed are completely disproven. McIntyre explained that flood control dams were planned on some of the rivers that flooded devastatingly, but were never built. Clearly, building dams has negative consequences, while keeping rivers open has positive benefits. But if you want to prevent flood damage without building dams, you should act cautiously. Revkin points out that this is not the case:
Levkin also descriptive A 1960 report, “Flooding in the French Broad and Swannanoa Rivers Around Asheville,” explained that the storm was no surprise to experts:
Andy reports that the report states that developments around Asheville “will cause past major floods to become even more severe if they occur again. Burrows and buildings in the floodplain, as well as many bridges spanning streams, have been severely degraded.” Flood Capacity. “On the French Broad River, floodwaters at the same level as the 1916 flood will reach 3 to 4 feet today; flood heights between Pearson Bridge and the West Asheville Viaduct are higher than actual flood heights. In Swavah On the Nanoa River, if a repeat of the 1916 flood occurred, the water level at Biltmore would be 2.5 feet higher today, and the water level upstream of the Recreation Park Dam would be 15 feet higher.
Anthony Watts Described several articles Climate Realism debunks media claims about the overall impact of climate change on storms. He shows that the idea that storms like Helen are worsening climate change simply doesn't hold up. Of particular note was a major flood in Asheville in 1916. good comparison This storm and the storm of 1916. He found that the peak level of the 1916 flood was 23 feet. During this storm, the maximum height was 24.7 feet.
Note that the 1960 report predicted that if a repeat storm occurred in 1916, flood levels would be 3 to 4 times higher due to development. Hurricane Helen's flood peaks were less than two feet higher than the 1916 storm. The observed increase in flood peaks is due to development rather than climate change.
in conclusion
Joyner concluded her article:
I need help making sense of it all, stories have always been the way humans make sense of the world. But when I’m grieving an unimaginable loss, the last thing I want is an upbeat story of hope. As climate scientist Kate Marvel says: “In the face of climate change, we need courage, not hope.”
I find it difficult to sympathize with the sadness of those who support Hollywood’s narratives in the age of climate change, when reality paints a different picture of the world. Data shows that “Helen” is a relatively typical hurricane lane hurricane that occurs during the hurricane season. Asheville has experienced devastating flooding before, and evidence suggests larger peaks may have been caused by development. There is nothing to suggest this is anything more than an extreme weather event. This is certainly no evidence of any worsening of the effects of climate change.
The worst part, in my opinion, is that the usual suspects are using this tragedy to call for America to cut back on fossil fuels to prevent this from happening again. Putting aside the lack of a cause-and-effect relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and specific weather events, the relative size of U.S. and global emissions, and the rate of change of those emissions, the indisputable fact is that storms causing this kind of damage have happened before, And what will happen is that there will be a renewed emphasis on everything that is being done to reduce emissions. If no measures are taken to adapt to this extreme weather, tragedy will inevitably happen again. A blind emphasis on reducing emissions is not in society’s best interests.
Roger Caiazza blogs about energy and environmental issues in New York at the Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York. This represents his opinion and not that of his previous employer or any other company with which he is associated.
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