The U.S. metropolitan area most vulnerable to storm surge damage is Tampa/St. Petersburg. According to a 2015 report by Karen Clark & Company, U.S. cities most vulnerable to storm surge flooding. Its once-in-a-century storm (1% chance of occurring in any year) is a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). Such a storm hitting northern Tampa Bay is expected to cause $230 billion ($2,024) in damage from the storm surge alone.
Tampa Bay is not frequently hit by hurricanes because the city faces the ocean to the west and the east-west trade winds prevail at that latitude, making it rare for storms to hit Florida's west coast directly from the ocean. This is fortunate because the vast shallow waters on the continental shelf near Tampa Bay (with depths less than 300 feet 90 miles offshore) are conducive to the development of large storm surges.
The last time Tampa was hit directly by a hurricane was in 1946, when a Category 1 storm moved across the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane on October 25, 1921 was the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay area. The Category 3 storm made landfall with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h), generated a storm surge of 10-11.5 feet (3-3.5 m), and caused severe damage (equivalent to $180 million in 2024 USD). The only major hurricane to hit the city occurred on September 25, 1848, when the 1848 Gale, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, made landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with winds of 115-135 mph. A storm surge of 15 feet (4.6 m) was observed in downtown Tampa today, and the St. Petersburg Peninsula in Pinellas County was flooded, turning St. Petersburg into an island. The few human structures in the area at the time were mostly destroyed.
When the hurricane hit Tampa Bay in 1921, approximately 160,000 residents lived in the four-county area, most of them in the Highland community. Today, the area has more than 3.5 million residents, and this number is growing at the rate of approximately 50,000 people every year. Sea levels are about a foot higher now than they were in 1921, so a storm surge from the same storm would cause more damage. A 2007 study from Tufts University, Florida and climate changefound sea levels rising 2.25 feet (0.7 m), and many scientists predict that 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) will be inundated during high tides by the end of the century.
The majority of the population in the four Tampa Bay area counties lives in low-lying coastal areas, with about 50 percent of the population living below 10 feet above sea level. According to the 2010 Tampa Bay Area State Evacuation Study, more than 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for Category 1 hurricanes and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for Category 5 hurricanes. Given that only 46% of Category 1 hurricane evacuation zones were evacuated when the order was issued during the threat of Category 4 Hurricane Charley in 2004, there is a good chance that there will be casualties when the next major hurricane hits.
Based on the second part of an excellent two-part series published in Nature in 2022 tampa bay timesIn a Category 1 hurricane, 11% of properties in Tampa are at risk of flooding, while in Pinellas County (home to St. Petersburg and home to nearly one million people) the number is 20%, with nearly $30 billion worth of properties at risk . No Florida county has the most buildings and the highest risk values, the article reports: “More than 700 critical properties, such as houses of worship, gas stations, schools, government buildings and public facilities, are at risk of flooding from Category 1 storms that killed more than 500 properties were exposed. Nearly 400 hotels, mostly on Pinellas' famous beaches, were also vulnerable.
Hurricane Helen
Last month, Hurricane Helene laid bare Tampa's extreme vulnerability to storm surges. Although its center passed 130 miles (205 kilometers) west of Tampa Bay on September 26, Helen brought the worst storm surge ever recorded to the bay since 1947, with water levels 5 feet 8 feet above dry ground. According to local television station fox13news.com, four counties in the Tampa Bay area were severely damaged: 28,000 structures were damaged in Pinellas County (home to St. Petersburg), 9,900 in Pasco County, Manatee County and Sarawak County. A total of 28,000 buildings were damaged in Sota County. There were 12 storm-related deaths in Pinellas County, two in Manatee County and two in Hillsborough County.
Damage in Manatee and Sarasota counties was estimated at $1.1 billion. Damage estimates for other counties have not yet been released, but considering that Pinellas and Pasco counties had more than four times the number of damaged structures than Manatee and Sarasota counties, additional losses are expected to be in the billions of dollars , making Helen the most destructive hurricane ever recorded in Tampa Bay.
Additional estimates of hurricane risk for Tampa Bay
In 2010, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Commission issued Tampa Bay Disaster PlanIn the scene, a Category 5 hurricane named Hurricane Phoenix hits downtown Tampa with winds of 160 mph and a storm surge of 26 feet. The study projected about 2,000 deaths and nearly $250 billion in losses in the city.
In 2016, Dr. Peter Sousounis, a meteorologist at risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, told me in an email that his maximum damage scenario for Tampa Bay was a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 220 mph (355 kph). Hours) hit the manatee central pressure of 887 mb in the county. The catastrophic storm caused $290 billion in insured losses ($2,024) in the four-county area (Manatee, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough), for which the damage level was 10,000 one part. Because uninsured losses from hurricanes are generally roughly equivalent to insured losses, total losses from this storm could exceed $400 billion.
Tampa 'Category 6' hurricane: Shocking storm with 830 mb pressure, 233 mph winds
However, a 2015 paper by Kerry Emanuel of MIT and Ning Lin of Princeton University outlined the worst-case scenario imaginable for Tampa. gray swan tropical cyclone (English press release here ). They found that the chance of an extreme Category 5 hurricane capable of producing a storm surge of 26-36 feet (8-11 m) in Tampa was extremely low or negligible in 20th-century climates, but the estimated chance of occurrence was 1 x 5,000 1 By the end of the 21st century, it has been 150,000 years. We may need to invent a “Category 6” name for the 150,000-year storm that appeared in their simulations: runs of the HADGEM climate model revealed an unimaginably powerful hurricane with a central pressure of 830 mb and a maximum sustained Winds of 233 mph (375 km/h) followed a precise path parallel to the coast, producing a massive 36 ft (11 m) storm surge in Tampa Bay. Even allowing for a 15% reduction in wind strength due to land friction, the winds produced by this Category 6 hurricane would be similar to the EF5 tornado that ripped through Joplin, Missouri, except that the EF4 to EF5 damage would be along a 22-mile wide segment , rather than just a few yards wide.
A paper published by Columbia University hurricane scientist Adam Sobel and colleagues in the journal in July 2016 sciencetitled Human impact on tropical cyclone intensitystates that we expect wind speeds in the strongest hurricanes to increase by about 2.2 mph (1 m/s) per decade, or about 19 mph by 2100. Wind speeds as an example Based on the current maximum potential intensity a hurricane can reach in 2015 (on the Pacific coast of Mexico), it is absolutely possible for a hurricane to reach 233 mph (375 km/h) by the end of the century.
Hurricane Milton's worst case scenario for Tampa Bay right now
Our top five hurricane-specific forecast models—HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and COAMPS-TC—show significant concern for the future of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Milton. Each of these models has had at least one run in recent days predicting Milton will reach Category 4 or 5 intensity on Tuesday or Wednesday. Many runs indicate it will make landfall north of Tampa Bay, maximizing storm surge in the bay. However, several recent runs of these models predicted that strong wind shear and dry air would disrupt Milton's core before landfall, causing the hurricane to rapidly weaken and potentially produce Category 1 or 2 impacts. This will cause hurricanes to produce stronger winds.
The most damaging scenario for Tampa Bay shown in Sunday's 18Z model run (2 p.m. ET) comes from the new HAFS-B model, which shows Milton will hit as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds (170 mph). Such a storm could generate storm surges of more than 10 feet in the Gulf and cause more than $10 billion in damage. Last year, the HAFS-B model outperformed all other models in 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day forecasts.
Tampa Bay's best case scenario right now
The COAMPS-TC model run at 18Z (1 PM EDT) on October 6 presents a plausible best-case scenario for Tampa Bay (see Figure 4). Models showed Milton making landfall about 80 miles south of Tampa Bay (near Fort Myers) as a Category 3 hurricane. The road will protect Tampa Bay from high winds and storm surges. However, Tampa's best-case scenario would be a nightmare for Southwest Florida, with losses that could exceed $10 billion.
Conclusion: Prepare for the worst.
