Heartland Institute Press Release
Blaming hurricane intensity on human activity and “climate change” is wrong
Storms of similar size and intensity struck the Tampa Bay area in 1848 and 1921, when humans' contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide was negligible
Even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said there are no climate signals in tropical storms
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (October 8, 2024) – On Wednesday, Hurricane Milton will become one of the largest storms ever to hit the Tampa Bay area of Florida and one of the few Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the satellite era One (1966 to present). It will likely join Hurricane Michael in 2018 as the only Category 5 hurricanes to form in the Gulf of Mexico in October and make landfall with that intensity.
While the history of Gulf hurricanes developing so powerfully and directly hitting Tampa Bay shows that this is rare, it is not unprecedented, and “climate change” caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide is not the culprit.
Heartland Institute climate and environmental experts James Taylor, Anthony Watts, H. Sterling Burnett, Linny Luken and Steven Milloy provided the media with insights into the storm. Historical background.
They provide quotes in the Facts and Opinions section of this release below. To contact them for comment, please contact Vice President and Director of Communications Jim Lakely at media@heartland.org or call/text 312-731-9364.
Fact: Milton is not without precedent
Storms of similar size and intensity struck the Tampa Bay area in 1848 and 1921.
Historical data shows little long-term trend in Florida's major hurricane activity – Hurricane Helene, which hit the Panhandle last month – since 1900.
No one born in the 1950s or later experienced the record hurricane activity of the 1940s, and hurricane activity in the early 1900s may be underestimated because Florida was virtually uninhabited in 1900.
The chart below shows the intensity of major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or greater) that have hit Florida since 1900, updated with Helene:
Fact: Hurricanes are not “intensifying”
Many might claim that Milton's rapid intensification was unprecedented. This is also wrong. As shown below – based on a study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters – Over the past 33 years, there has been no significant upward trend in “rapid intensification” of hurricanes forming in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
Fact: There is no upward trend in hurricane activity
There has also been no upward trend in global cyclone activity since 1980.
Fact: IPCC says there are no climate signals in tropical storms
Climate science itself shows that there is no correlation between climate change and hurricane intensity or frequency. Table 12.12 in Chapter 12 on page 90 of the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2023). The occurrence of climate impact drivers (CIDs) at different times does not show any current or future correlation.
The colors in the table below correspond to the confidence in areas with the highest confidence: white indicates where evidence of a climate change signal is lacking or non-existent, resulting in an overall lower confidence in emerging signals. Note the colors of the tropical cyclones in the table screenshot below:
The following statements can be used with attribution. For more information on historical trends, visit the Heartland Institute’s Climate Overview website.
- Florida, especially the Tampa area, has been in a golden age of hurricane avoidance.
- The Tampa area is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, and a severe hurricane strike can be catastrophic, even apocalyptic. Scientists tell us it's remarkable that no major hurricane has hit Tampa in more than a century, and that Tampa is long overdue for another major hurricane.
- That such a remarkable streak without a major hurricane may finally be coming to an end is not an indictment of climate change but an illustration of how hurricanes are becoming increasingly rare as the planet warms modestly.
- Climate charlatans will undoubtedly try to link Hurricane Milton to climate change. However, hurricane activity affecting Florida and the entire United States is less frequent and severe than it was a few decades ago. Climate change may not make all hurricanes disappear, but as the planet warms modestly, they are becoming less frequent and severe.
- Meteorologists report that upper atmospheric wind shear could disrupt Hurricane Milton and reduce its power and speed before it makes landfall in Florida. Scientists have long linked rising global temperatures to upper-atmosphere wind shear suppressing the formation and intensity of hurricanes. That's why rising water temperatures don't “intensify” hurricanes.
- Florida recently experienced an 11-year period without a major hurricane (ending in 2017), by far the longest period on record.
- Florida recently experienced a 10-year period (as of 2016) without a hurricane of any size, the longest period on record to date.
- From 2009 to 2017, the United States was hit by fewer hurricanes than at any other time in history.
- The United States recently went a record-breaking 11 consecutive years without a major hurricane of Category 3 or above (2005-2017).
James Taylor
President
heartland institute
“Of course, at this stage we don't know how powerful Milton will be when it makes landfall, or where it will hit, but if it hits Tampa Bay as predicted, it will cause massive damage. However, if it does happen, , neither the intensity nor the speed of the hurricanes themselves, nor the timing or location of the hurricane season, is as unprecedented as many stories claim, but neither the data nor the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provide evidence for climate change. Provide any support for the theory that the hurricane worsened.
“Instead, the devastation Milton wreaked in Tampa Bay, or wherever he ultimately made landfall, would be the only unprecedented thing not due to changing climatic conditions but to changing demographics. Unlike 1921 and 1848 (respectively) Global Warming 103 years ago and 176 years ago) Tampa Bay and its surrounding areas have more people, property, and infrastructure than when similar hurricanes hit the city directly.
“In 1921, Tampa Bay's population was 135,000. Now it's over three million. Hopefully, most people will heed the early warnings provided by the technology available and stay out of harm's way, so the death toll, if any, will be low. But you can’t move homes and infrastructure, so the damage will be quite high—not because of the changing nature of the hurricane, but because of the expanded bullseye effect: More people and things hurt means more damage.
“I pray the windshear knocks it down and/or hits less populated areas of the country.”
Dr. H. Sterling Burnett
Director, Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy
heartland institute
Chief Editor, environment and climate news
While much of the media described Hurricane Milton as an “unprecedented” hurricane because it was “impacted” by climate change, a review of the factual record and scientific literature suggests the opposite. Tampa Bay experienced major hurricanes in 1848 and 1921, long before climate change emerged.
“Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made it clear in its latest report that they found no evidence that climate change is affecting hurricanes in any way. Milton's minimum pressure of 897mb was not unprecedented and was the fifth-lowest pressure ever recorded . While Milton remains dangerous, attempts to paint him as a climate change-driven monster simply don’t stand up to scrutiny and aren’t helpful to those affected.
Anthony Watts
Senior Researcher
heartland institute
“There is no doubt that, despite the facts, the media focus in the wake of Hurricane Milton will be on the climate change angle, and quickly attributed 'studies' will soon come out to support the media narrative. Sadly, the media will almost certainly Fake news will be promoted to create more fear and confusion, rather than focusing on things that actually help reduce the impact of natural hurricanes—such as storm-resilient infrastructure and dispatchable power.
“Florida's government has done a great job in the past (especially recently) of responding quickly to these disasters and focusing on helping people rather than wasting time playing the climate change card and shifting the blame to those who dare to demand stability and affordability. Let's hope this trend continues.
Linnie Luken researcher
Arthur Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy
heartland institute
“The Tampa Bay area has been hit by at least two major hurricanes before (1848 and 1921), there is no trend of hurricanes hitting Florida, any aspect of hurricanes is outside the range of natural variability, and emissions are unlikely to affect hurricanes in the first place, Because emissions don't actually warm the oceans, blaming them on hurricanes is an absolutely bankrupt statement.
Steven Milloy Senior Policy Fellow, E&E Legal Department
Policy Advisor, Heartland Institute
Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop and promote free market solutions to social and economic problems. For more information please visit our website
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