from NoTricksZone
Author: P. Gosselin
The Committee on Food Security predicts that the weather in Western Europe will be somewhat cool and humid in October this year. Surface frost is already widespread.
hat tip snow fan
Chart: NOAA
As shown in the figure above, the deviation of 2m air temperature from 1991-2020 from the globally valid WMO climate mean is expected to be around 0°C. Above average rainfall is expected.
For Germany's higher altitudes, October can be snowy at times… Germany's natural gas storage facilities are nearly full at 96% ahead of Russia's third consecutive winter attack, which is a good thing… Source: CFSv2 forecast TA2m and European precipitation.
The ECMWF long-term forecast also predicts that October 2024 will be quite cool across Central Europe, especially in the first half.
cold atlantic sea
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic between Iceland and Europe cool in the second half of September, and westerly and northwesterly winds in western and central Europe warm the air layer closer to the ground less warmly: this suggests that October is quite cool?
Source: Snowfan, NOAA reanalysis SSTA North Atlantic
NOAA's reanalysis shows that temperatures in the North Atlantic between Iceland and Europe were too cold in the second half of September 2024 compared with WMO 1991-2020 global climate averages.
Cooler October weather in Western and Central Europe is indicated by cooler than average temperatures in the near-surface subpolar air mass due to westerly to northwesterly winds.
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