from climaterealism
Author: Linny Luken
The most recent article is located at Forbes“Four Deadly Weather Extremes: Climate Forecasters' Achilles' Heel” is a mixture of true and false claims about the effects of climate change and warming. Forbes is correct that existing data does not show that extreme weather is getting worse, but it is wrong in some of its other assertions, such as that coral reefs are in danger.
First, writer Ian Palmer describes the so-called Exxon Knew scandal, citing some of the predictions about carbon dioxide emissions and global warming contained in models built by ExxonMobil in the 1980s. This narrative about the fuel giant ignores the fact that other studies being conducted internally show different results and suggest contrary views. Even in the warming theories proposed by some Exxon scientists, they acknowledge that their findings are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. The popular scientific consensus before the 1980s was that mini Ice Aces were about to be born.
ExxonMobil doesn’t “know” or hide anything, and Palmer noted that ExxonMobil’s model output is “approximately global warmingno climate change,” and predicting the downstream effects of climate change on weather and other systems is “another big step forward and fraught with uncertainty.”
he wrote [Emphasis mine] :
If the world is sensitive to global warming of 0.2°C or 0.5°C, or even 1.0°C, climate change indicators should appear in long-term data trends.
…
Global warming does have global consequences. These direct index These include melting Arctic and Antarctic ice, retreating glaciers, rising sea levels, coral bleaching and changes to some biodiversity habitats. These problems are already serious, but no Often associated with loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, famine, mass migration, or government collapse.
Globally, each of these direct indicators has worsened over the past 50 years, and long-term data have proven this. For example, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef has reached an all-time high.
While it is true that some habitats are changing and ice is melting, as expected after a cold period, this has been greatly exaggerated by the media. He is also completely wrong to believe that coral reefs are more at risk of bleaching now than they were when the weather was colder and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were lower. He is also wrong to suggest that the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is threatened by recent bleaching events, when in fact the GBR is thriving.
The first thing to note about coral reefs is that coral bleaching is not coral death. While the media and Palmer are vigorously promoting the record-breaking level of bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, data shows that after bleaching, the reef's live coral coverage has repeatedly hit record highs. It is currently in its best shape in recent decades. Bleaching is caused by a variety of factors, including cold snaps and chemicals in sunscreen, and is not entirely caused by warm ocean waters (in which corals thrive) or dissolved carbon dioxide. Furthermore, as discussed in many Climate Realism posts, corals are doing well across the globe, often adapting to bleaching, and new corals are being discovered all the time, sometimes in unexpected locations.
Regarding the melting of ice at the poles, while the melting of ice may seem alarming, the truth is more complicated and the overall amount of ice in these locations has barely changed. There is a long-term melting trend, but this trend predates the Industrial Revolution and will continue as long as we don't return to Little Ice Age temperatures.
It's true that global mean sea levels are rising, but the effects are not evenly distributed along coastlines or beyond their natural range and rate of rise since the Earth began emerging from the last ice age, Palmer rightly acknowledges: Despite the media It is often asserted that this has nothing to do with loss of life. Sea levels have risen more than 400 feet since the last ice age, and tide measurements don't show any alarming acceleration in the rate of rise. Climate Overview: Sea Level Rise covers this succinctly. There is no reason to believe again that if humans stopped burning fossil fuels, sea levels would stop rising.
Palmer went on to describe four types of “deadly extreme weather such as droughts, wildfires, floods and hurricanes.”
This is where his analysis is spot on. Palmer wrote:
But the four deadly weather extremes have not gotten worse over the past 50 years. Long-term data, such as hurricanes, show a large number of events occurring around the world and, although there are fluctuations, do not reveal long-term trends. These events are reliably recorded and carefully counted.
The same goes for statistics on droughts, wildfires and floods around the world. Globally, none of these four deadly weather extremes have worsened over the past 40-50 years – despite global temperatures rising by 1.0 degrees Celsius in that period.
Palmer's statement was accurate, and he went on to ponder, if there is not an increase in these catastrophic weather types that do pose a direct threat to human health, “Why should the world worry about future deterioration?”
He insisted that the “urgency” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions “remains important” based on early direct indicators of climate change, but said it was “not as dire as climate modellers, media and scientists often portray”. media.
Most surprisingly, Palmer ends the article by admitting that the oil and gas industry cannot therefore be blamed for worsening extreme weather, although he does assert that the oil and gas industry “may be responsible for direct indicators of global warming.” .
However, debate continues over the extent to which human emissions of carbon dioxide affect even direct indicators of warming, especially since human activity accounts for only 3.4% of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today. Many so-called solutions to the problem, such as ending the use of fossil fuels for electricity and transportation, will have far more dire consequences for civilization, human life, and health than slow sea level rise or habitat changes, such as widespread famine, many modern Loss of pharmaceuticals and medical technology and reduced availability of life-saving electricity.
this Forbes The article is a mixture of fact and nonsense, and deserves credit for the facts it tells, not the misleading parts of it. Forbes should get some credit for publishing an article, a good portion of which presents facts that contradict the popular claim that humans are causing catastrophic climate change. If it follows the norm of recent mainstream media practice, it would stifle any discussion of data that clearly shows extreme weather is not getting worse and persist in the speculation that climate change will if we don't stop using fossils. It will cause us trouble.
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