From the Daily Skeptic
Chris Morrison
A sensational scientific paper has debunked alarmist claims that global temperatures are soaring. Just published results nature “Limited evidence” showing surge in warming. “In most surface temperature time series, no changes in the warming rate were detected after the 1970s, despite the record-breaking temperatures observed in 2023,” said the paper, which was authored by a team of mathematicians and scientists Written by an international panel, it is unlikely to be recognized by the mainstream media, which is generally hysterical about the anomalous experience of 2023. As we've seen, misinformation is constantly being released to scare the public, with climate comedian Jim Dale predicting the end of the world and exhorting people to “connect the dots” on an almost daily basis as an example.
In science, one swallow does not make a summer, and in climate science, it is impossible to select short-term or individual weather events to show trends. The paper is a brilliant piece of climate science work because it takes a long-term statistical perspective and challenges the two-cent clickbait alarmists who look for headlines on the BBC. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a biased body, but it understands the importance of long-term climate trends, noting that in most extreme weather events humans have little or no involvement, much to the chagrin of net-zero advocates . But these findings and papers on warming trends are inconvenient for those promoting the unproven claim that humans control the climate thermostat through the use of hydrocarbons.
The paper is highly technical, and mathematically inclined readers can study the full workings in the open access publication. It noted that global temperature data sets fluctuate due to short-term changes, which often cause spikes and slowdowns in warming. It added that it is important to consider random noise caused by natural variability when investigating recent temperature pauses and the recent “so-called warming acceleration”. In fact, many plausible explanations have been given for the recent spike, with attention focused on the giant Hunga Tonga submarine volcano, which adds 13% extra water vapor to the stratosphere, an intense phenomenon. child Even recent changes in shipping fuels have led to a reduction in atmospheric particulate matter. Mathematicians used several “change points” and found that “no warming wave could be reliably detected at any time after 1970.”
While the focus is on whether global warming continues to accelerate, there is recognition of how unusual the 2023 surface temperature anomaly is. To put it bluntly, the earth is “boiling.” Last year's hysteria was useful for short-term alarmism, but they helped destroy the “established” science surrounding CO22. If man-made CO2 is responsible for rising temperatures, why did temperatures stop when gas concentrations in the atmosphere rose from 1998 to 2012? Does the alarmism of the BBC and most other mainstream media only apply if temperatures continue to soar for a few months?
One of the key conclusions of this article comes from considering two time series—1970-2023 and 2013-2023. This certainly includes the early 1970s, when concerns about global cooling were rife and average temperatures were falling. The estimated temperature trend is said to be 0.019°C per year for the first time period and 0.029°C per year for the second time period (including last year's peak). This estimated slope of 0.029°C is “well below” the increase needed to indicate a change in the recent warming trend. This is due to short-term changes in the Met Office HadCRUT global database since 1970 and “uncertainty” about the 2012 change point. This uncertainty stems from speculation about whether 2012 and the end of the pause marked a year of important changes in longer time series. “The period recorded by HadCRUT is simply not long enough to currently detect a statistically significant surge,” they noted.
Cliff Mass is a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington. He has a golden rule for extreme weather: “The more extreme the climate or weather record, the greater the impact of natural variability and the smaller the impact of human-caused global warming.”
Mathematicians use change-point statistical techniques aimed at identifying structural changes over time. Four global average surface temperature records for the period 1850 to 2023 were used, including HadCRUT. This is of course problematic, as there is substantial evidence that these datasets' careless treatment of urban thermal corruption (i.e., the fact that urban areas are warming through continued development) exaggerates warming trends. Additionally, there are a lot of retrospective adjustments, often cooling the past and warming the near future, to add to the “trend.” Despite numerous articles about the “pause” from 1998 to 2012, the Met Office has now removed it from its own records, adding 30% to the retrospective warming. Perhaps the Met Office has nothing to worry about, with mathematicians pointing out that such pauses are “not unusual” given the extent of short-term variability present in the data. But these data sets are the best we have, and there is no doubt that the Earth has warmed slightly over the past 200 years, since the end of the Little Ice Age. In the absence of a better approach, it is fair to use these data sets for scientific analysis, although it may suggest that overall warming may be lower than suggested in this paper.
Chris Morrison is daily skepticof Environment editor.
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