not many people know
Paul Homewood
Not only is this bullshit, it’s deceptive bullshit!
Officials have called the deadly rains and flooding caused by Hurricane Helene “biblical” and “generational.” But weather forecasters use another term: “once in a thousand years.”
Helen was actually the second thousand-year storm to hit North Carolina in as many days. Less than two weeks before Helen made landfall, an unnamed tropical storm brought once-in-1,000-year rainfall to communities on the other side of the state, flooding homes along the coast.
The idea of two such rainfall events occurring back-to-back may seem confusing. After all, it sounds like they should only happen once every 1,000 years. But really, it's all about chance. It is more important than ever for communities and infrastructure managers to understand the possibilities and how climate change may alter them.
Researchers were able to clearly identify these two extremely rare floods in North Carolina based on rainfall frequency estimates. Scientists use years of precipitation measurements at a specific location to deduce the composition of century-old storms at that location.
Add in the effects of climate change, which are not included in current estimates, and the potential for catastrophic rainfall also increases, said UCLA climatologist Daniel Swain. A hotter atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to more frequent and intense downpours.
Take Helen’s Rain for example. While statistical estimates based on historical records suggest this was a once-in-1,000-year event, quick analysis after the storm found that rainfall as severe as Helen's now occurs about once every 70 years due to global warming.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/10/18/what-it-really-means-when-a-1-in-1000-year-rainstorm-hits
So, North Carolina was hit with two “once-in-a-millennium” rainstorms in two weeks? Really?
Sorry, but it must be pointed out that this is absolutely a fraud.
Let's start with Helen.
Storm rainfall amounts were mostly less than 20 inches in the most affected areas of North Carolina, but a few high-elevation areas received slightly more.
http://web.archive.org/web/20240930152623/https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
However, these totals accumulated steadily over three days, such as in Asheville:
However, in 1916 we know that 22 inches fell over the same area in just 24 hours, which is still a record for the entire United States.
Clearly, Helen's flood was not unprecedented.
What about the other storm:
This refers to a small rainstorm that dumped 10 inches of rain on a small stretch of coast around Southport, North Carolina, on September 17. I tell the story here.
http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/
But again, ten inches a day along the Carolina coast is pretty much normal when a tropical storm passes.
For example, the 24-hour record during Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina in 1999 was 14.8 inches:
But according to Wikipedia, North Carolina was more severely affected by Floyd:
North Carolina bore the brunt of the storm's damage. In total, Hurricane Floyd killed 51 people in North Carolina, mostly from freshwater flooding, and caused billions of dollars in damage.
The storm surge from this major hurricane reached 9-10 feet (2.7-3.0 m) along the southeastern part of the state. The hurricane also spawned many tornadoes, most of which caused only minor damage. During the storm, damaged power lines temporarily knocked out power to more than 500,000 customers.[2]
Just weeks before Floyd's attack, Hurricane Dennis It brought up to 15 inches (380 mm) of rain to southeastern North Carolina. When Hurricane Floyd moved across the state in early September, it produced torrential downpours of up to 19.06 inches (484 mm). wilmington. Although moving quickly, the extreme rainfall was caused by Floyd's interaction with an approaching cold front across the region.[2]
Extensive flooding, particularly near North Carolina Highway 91 and the White Oak Loop, caused rivers to swell; nearly every river basin in eastern North Carolina reached 500-year flood levels or above.[33] Most localized flooding occurred overnight; within hours of Hurricane Floyd's passage, nearly 17 inches (430 mm) of rain fell, and many residents were unaware of the flooding until it entered their homes. The U.S. Navy, National Guard and Coast Guard conducted nearly 1,700 freshwater rescues of people trapped on rooftops due to rapidly rising water levels. In contrast, many of the worst-affected areas did not reach flood peaks in the weeks after the storm as water accumulated in rivers and flowed downstream (see flood map, right).
of passing Hurricane Irene Four weeks later, an additional 6 inches (150 mm) of rain fell on the still-saturated area, causing further flooding.
this tar river The worst flooding occurred, with downstream areas exceeding 500-year flood levels; its highest point was 24 feet (7.3 m) above flood stage. The flood started in rocky mountainsup to 30% of which remained underwater for several days. exist Tarboromuch of downtown is under several feet of water.[34] nearby, small town princeville The town was largely destroyed when water from the Taal River overwhelmed the town's embankments, and for ten days the town was flooded with more than 20 feet (6.1 m) of water.[35] Further downstream, greenville Suffered severe flood; damage in pitt county This alone is estimated at $1.6 billion (1999 US$, 2022 US$2.81 billion).[13] washingtonDamage was also observed where peak flood levels were observed. Some Greenville residents had to swim six feet underwater to reach the front doors of their homes and apartments.[36] Due to severe flooding in downtown Greenville, East Carolina Pirates Forced to move football game to #9 Miami arrive North Carolinaof Carter-Finley Stadium In Raleigh, they defeated the Hurricanes 27-23.[37]
this Neuse River, roanoke river, waccamaw riverand new river Although the damage in these areas was smaller (compared to the Taal River) due to lower population density, it exceeded the 500-year flood level. because most cape fear river The basin is located to the west of the peak rainfall area, and the city wilmington Despite the highest rainfall locally, it did not experience the worst flooding; however, the Northeast Cape Fear River (a tributary) did exceed the 500-year flood stage. Of the state's eastern rivers, only timber river Escaped catastrophic floods.[33]
Rainfall and strong winds affected many homes across the state, destroying 7,000 homes, leaving 17,000 uninhabitable and 56,000 damaged. In the aftermath of the storm, 10,000 people were living in temporary shelters. Widespread flooding caused severe damage to crops. As North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services Secretary H. David Bruton said: “Nothing has wreaked so much havoc on families here since the Civil War. The recovery process will be much longer than the water fall.[13] The storm resulted in the loss of approximately 31,000 jobs at more than 60,000 businesses, resulting in nearly $4 billion in lost corporate revenue (1999 USD, 2022 USD 7.02 billion).[38] In most of the affected areas, officials urged people to boil water or buy bottled water in the wake of the Floyd incident.[39]
In contrast to the problems experienced in eastern North Carolina, much of the western part of the state remains in severe drought.[13[13[13[13
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd#Southeastern_United_States
Floyd threw a 19-inch ball to Wilmington, which is not uncommon in the wider area.
Also keep an eye out for Hurricane Dennis, which dropped 15 inches of rain in the area a few weeks ago. This certainly debunked Bloomberg’s story about two such incidents that should never have happened.
NOAA released 33-day rainfall totals for both storms. Taking Wilmington as an example, it received 28 inches:
.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170109112928/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/september/Sep99rn2.txt
https://web.archive.org/web/20170109113605/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/extremes/1999/september/ncrain3_pg.gif
During the Floyd incident, Wilmington lost 18 inches in two days.
Meanwhile, Dennis has lost 19.91 inches in height, mostly in the last two days of August:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/dennis1999.html
Floyd and Dennis were exceptions, but many other tropical storms brought as much rain as Southport did last month.
So where do they get this “once in a thousand years” nonsense?
Yes, I realize it doesn't literally mean once every thousand years – it's just a statement of probability. You can win the lottery, but that doesn't mean there's no chance of winning again.
But nonetheless, if they arrive at such a result, there must be something fundamentally wrong with their model.
In fact, even the scientists who come up with this nonsense admit that these claims are based on “historical records.” Obviously, the “historical record” does not support their claims. They are nothing more than statistical charades designed to mislead.
If we rely on historical records, we can only tell us about the situation in the past hundred years or so. In other words, they mentioned once every 70 years, which is probably accurate considering these are based on individual locations. It also means the U.S. is likely to see an event like this somewhere every year.
However, based on historical records, they have no way of knowing how frequent these events were before global warming. This is where the model is twisted to provide whatever result the authors want – that is, a 1,000-year event.
The entire goal is to scare the public into believing the weather is worse than before:
Not only is this bad science, it’s also deliberate disinformation.
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