Guest post by Larry Hamlin
NOAA's forecast for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season is shown below.
Now that the June-October period of the 2024 season has ended, only November remains, which historically has seen far fewer hurricanes and tropical storms occur each month.
NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an “above normal” year (most people would say “above average,” but we live in the age of government-driven climate alarmist propaganda) 17 to 25 named storms occurred.
Colorado State University North Atlantic statistics (shown below) derived from NHC “Optimum Operating Trajectories” Says there have been 15 named storms so far November hurricane season is coming to an end and will be weaker.
Compared to NOAA's projected 85% chance of 17 to 25 named storms, we have yet to experience the lowest number of 17 storms, let alone the highest number of 25 storms.
this The data shows a total of 10 hurricanes, at the lower end of NOAA's forecast range of Category 8 to Category 13 Four of these storms fall into the major hurricane category At the very low end of the NOAA projection range of 4 to 7.
The North Atlantic region ACE total so far in 2024 is 145.3, which is above the long-term historical average ACE of 122.5, as shown below.
Comparing the North Atlantic hurricane ACE and hurricane results from 2024 to the present to other years since 1851 (which can be found here), we note The results below show that the results from the lower activity month of November 2024 still hold.
As of the end of October 2024, the total hurricane ACE for 2024 is 145.3, with a total of 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and 15 named storms.
North Atlantic ACE values in 2021 and 2023 are comparable to those in 2024, at 145.7 and 145.6, respectively, with a total of 7 and 7 hurricanes, 4 and 3 major hurricanes, and 21 and 20 named storms, respectively.
Since 1851, the North Atlantic hurricane ACE total has exceeded 150 for 23 years from 1878 to 2020 (greater than the current 2024 ACE value of 145.3).
In these 23 years, 4 such storms have had impacts beyond the 15 years to 2024. The 15 major hurricane years include 5, 6, and 7 major hurricane outcomes, with 2024 having 4 major hurricanes. The years with higher rates of these major hurricanes range from 1893 to 2020.
The highest total North Atlantic season ACE recorded was 258.6 in 1933, a year that experienced six major hurricanes, resulting in an ACE that year that was 56% higher than in 2024 and 78% higher than the long-term North Atlantic historical average ACE.
The 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season is not particularly unique, and is clearly far from any type of “record year” when assessed by the metrics used to evaluate and compare hurricane year outcomes.
Flooding in 2024 from Hurricane Helene in Asheville, North Carolina (an area erroneously dubbed a “climate haven” by climate extremists) was overhyped by climate alarmists, as was Hurricane 4 in 1916 Caused severe flooding.
1916 North Atlantic hurricane season (found here) has an ACE value of 144 (compared to 145.3 in 2024), 15 named storms (compared to 15 named storms in 2024), 10 hurricanes (compared to 10 hurricanes in 2024), and 5 Major hurricanes (compared to the 4 major 2024 hurricanes) are essentially the 108-year-old “twins” of the 2024 hurricane season indicators.
But the true and extraordinary story about the 2024 hurricane season is a stark reality: This year’s hurricane season is well below “normal” throughout the global northern hemisphere.
This huge reality is obscured and ignored by climate extremists and their ignorant media, whose hype is based solely on the North Atlantic season, which accounts for only 21% of the historical average ACE results for the Northern Hemisphere season.
The data provided below shows ACE values so far in 2024 Northeast Pacific and Pacific Northwest Region accounting for 74% of the global historical seasonal ACE average results in the Northern Hemisphere.
also As shown below Northern Hemisphere ACE results for 2024 so far clearly indicate that global results are well below “normal” (just 73% of the historical average ACE).
It is unfortunate and tragic that the climate extremist media works so hard to obscure the clear picture provided by measured climate science data that shows the world is not facing a climate emergency.
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