It's November, the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and an active 2024 hurricane season looks set to produce a named storm named “Patty” in the western Caribbean in November. A widespread low-pressure system known as the Central American Gyre (CAG) is developing over Central America and the southwestern Caribbean, which will bring heavy rain to parts of Central America. Panama and Costa Rica are set to receive more than 10 inches (250 millimeters) of rain in the coming week, potentially triggering dangerous flash floods and landslides. The circulation also has the potential to generate tropical storms.
A gyre, a type of monsoon depression, is a weak but widespread area of surface low pressure that can persist for two weeks or more over Central America and adjacent areas of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, including the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. They are most common in May, June, September, October and November. Gyres often produce small circulations, either strong or weak, that can develop into fully developed tropical cyclones. One of these cells formed in the Gulf of Mexico in June and became the first named storm of the season, Alberto. What's more serious is that this year's two catastrophic hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, Helen and Milton, also originated from CAG.
The Central American gyre usually takes several days to form, and once fully formed, it takes several more days for a tropical cyclone to form. The location of a tropical cyclone generated by the Central American Gyre is difficult to predict more than two days in advance, but our leading forecast models have consistently predicted that it will trigger the next storm named after the Central American Gyre. time. Conditions in the area were generally favorable for development, with wind shear of 10-20 knots, a moist atmosphere and sea surface temperatures near 29 degrees Celsius (84 °F), about 0.5 -1.0 degrees Celsius above average.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the northern Caribbean Sea will keep the developing system slowly moving northward, which could bring heavy rain to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Haiti in the coming days. The system will likely move further northwest on Tuesday, which could push it into the Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
Tough conditions for golf in Mexico
If possible Patty eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it will develop in a much worse environment than hurricanes Helen and Milton in September and October. In recent weeks, recurring fall cold fronts have spread cold air over the bay, causing the water to cool significantly. More importantly, the jet stream has moved further south, which will bring strong wind shear and accompanied by dry air, making it difficult for tropical cyclones to strengthen in the Gulf area.
In the Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8 a.m. ET on Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development in the Western Caribbean within two days and a 70% chance of developing within seven days. . As of Thursday, no Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions had been scheduled for the system.
Bob Hansen contributed to this article.
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