from”But science has it figured out!” department.
You may remember that four days ago, WUWT published this story: Oops, the science was “settled”—until it wasn’t: Plants absorb 31% more carbon dioxide than we thought
Now, on the heels of that, another underestimated amount of carbon dioxide uptake has been discovered: New research shows the ocean is absorbing more carbon dioxide than previously thought. The article states:
New research confirms that lower ocean surface temperatures enhance carbon dioxide uptake, with the Atlantic absorbing 7% more carbon dioxide per year than previously estimated.
…
Scientists studied the “ocean epidermis” – a small patch of ocean surface less than 2 millimeters deep that is cooler than other parts of the ocean.
Theory and laboratory work suggest that this temperature difference should increase the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean, but this has never been successfully observed at sea before.
The new study, led by researchers at the University of Exeter's Penryn campus in Cornwall, used precise measurements to confirm that ocean surface temperatures do indeed contribute to carbon uptake.
Results of research conducted in the Atlantic Ocean indicate that the ocean absorbs about 7% more carbon dioxide each year than previously thought. This may sound small, but when applied to all oceans, this additional carbon sequestration is equivalent to one and a half times the carbon captured by annual forest growth in the Amazon rainforest.
Now, within a week, we've seen a 38% difference in the amount of carbon dioxide we absorb, something previously unknown to climate science. That's big.
Two recent studies on carbon dioxide uptake by oceans and land reveal the previously underestimated role of natural carbon sinks, with important implications for climate models and predictions. Here's a quick analysis of these findings and their combined implications for climate sensitivity and modeling.
- Increased ocean absorption of carbon dioxide: Research led by the University of Exeter shows that the ocean absorbs 7% more carbon dioxide every year than previously estimated. This is due to “ocean skin” – the thin, cooler layer on the surface of the ocean that enhances carbon absorption. The findings suggest that the global ocean absorbs 1.5 times the amount of carbon dioxide captured by growing Amazonian forests, highlighting the ocean's role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
- Land plants absorb more carbon dioxide: Meanwhile, research from Oak Ridge National Laboratory found that plants absorb 31% more carbon dioxide than previous models suggested. By tracking carbonyl sulfide, scientists have developed more accurate estimates of global photosynthesis, particularly in tropical rainforests that serve as important carbon sinks. The revised figure increases annual global gross primary production (GPP) from 120 petagrams of carbon to 157 petagrams, further underlining the importance of natural carbon dioxide sequestration to the climate balance.
Cumulative impacts on climate patterns and climate sensitivity
The combined effect of these findings suggests that current climate models may underestimate the role of the natural carbon cycle in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Because oceans and land absorb more carbon dioxide than previously thought, climate models need to take these increased absorption rates into account to more accurately predict temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
- climate sensitivity adjustment: Increased carbon dioxide uptake may lower climate sensitivity estimates in the short term, as more carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere than expected.
- Long-term climate predictions: Increased natural uptake may temporarily slow the rate of carbon dioxide accumulation, but this buffering effect may diminish over time as oceans approach saturation and deforestation pressure increases on terrestrial carbon sinks. Incorporating these findings could lead to more complete, temporally dynamic climate models that adjust CO2 sink efficiency in response to environmental changes.
- Policies and Mitigation Measures: Acknowledges that marine and terrestrial ecosystems increase carbon dioxide sinks and highlights the importance of reassessing the climate science used to drive policy.
We've known for some time that climate models have been “hot” because some emissions scenarios, such as RCP 8.5, are unrealistic in terms of future CO2 growth rates. See: New confirmation that climate models exaggerate atmospheric warming. Maybe these new findings will cool down some of these models (assuming there is any integrity left in climate science), and we'll hear less about the predicted climate apocalypse is coming.
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