A BBC article titled “Scientists are sure a warming world is making Spain's storms more intense” links recent flash floods in Spain to climate change. This is wrong. [emphasis, links added]
The data refutes claims that flooding in Europe is getting worse as a result of mildly warming temperatures. Furthermore, this story ignores Spain's long history of sometimes catastrophic flooding, since many of Spain's cities are located in narrow valleys.
Dr Friederike Otto, co-director of World Weather Attribution (WWA), told the BBC: “There is no doubt that these heavy rains are exacerbated by climate change. “Every time fossil fuels warm A little bit, and the atmosphere will hold more moisture, leading to greater rainfall.”
The problem is that neither the World Meteorological Service's Otto nor the BBC cite any data to support the claim that the storm's moisture content has increased due to warming, because the data doesn't exist.
Instead, this attribution is based on predictions from a flawed computer model, which is typical of the type of “study” WWA is quick to publish.
As with all WWA studies climate realism As discussed earlier, they suffer from the logical fallacy of assuming what they are trying to prove.
WWA's research hypothesizes that climate change will cause or contribute to specific weather events, and then uses computer models to predict how large the effects will be. This is not how one conducts science.
climate realism Similar attribution claims have been refuted multiple times, for example, here , here , and here .
The recent horrific flooding in the Spanish province of Valencia has claimed the lives of more than 200 people, But there is no evidence that this flood was historically unusual. Looking back at the historical background of the floodplain, the area has experienced many severe floods.
The BBC article claimed “increased atmospheric humidity” and rising temperatures to explain the event, But as the BBC noted, other meteorologists said the event was driven by a common “gota fria” weather patternalso known as “cold drops”, have recently been named DANA in the meteorological literature.
This weather event typically brings cold air from northern latitudes over the warm Mediterranean Sea, causing sudden and intense rainfall.
The latest storms to hit Spain are consistent with the country's long history of severe autumn storms. Gotafria has not become more common or severe during the recent mild warming.
Valencia, located along and at the mouth of the Mediterranean River Turia, suffered similar floods in 1897, 1957 and 1996, respectively 127, 67 and 28 years before warming, when temperatures were warmer than in 2000 Low.
Dozens of people died in each flood. Caroline Angus chronicles the Valencian floods of 1957, Long before the era of so-called climate change, the region was experiencing well-known patterns of extreme rainfall events.
On October 14, 1957, an unprecedented flood struck Valencia, flooding the city with nearly 6,000 cubic meters of water per second. The surrounding towns of Valencia, including Pedralba and Vila Marquesante, experienced record rainfall. Caused massive flooding that affected thousands of lives and required years of recovery work.
The flood event of 1957 was not an anomaly but part of a natural cycle that Spaniards had come to recognize as part of the natural cycle. Seasonal threats from Mediterranean temperature dynamics and topography.
That storm dumped about a foot of rain over 2 days at a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels – said to contribute to climate change – were only 314 parts per million (ppm), compared with today's measured 422 ppm.
As Caroline Angus's account of the Valencian floods of 1957 reveals, these conditions were neither new nor unprecedented.
BBC focuses on 'climate change' and warming as main cause of recent floods It ignores the atmospheric mechanisms behind these storms and downplays recurring patterns that resemble natural events.
It also too easily ignores the well-known phenomenon of gota fria, Although the BBC themselves wrote, “[w]Ethereum researchers say the main cause of heavy rainfall may be natural weather events [gota fria] Fall and winter hit Spain.
Any connection to climate change is based solely on quick, non-peer-reviewed attribution claims, not data.
From a scientific perspective, it is a glaring omission that the BBC does not cite the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, Little evidence of increased precipitation was found. The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides an assessment of confidence levels in precipitation trends.
According to Chapter 12 Table 12.12 (see below), Even under flawed high-emissions climate model scenarios such as RCP8.5, the IPCC expressed “low confidence” in the clear trend of increasing heavy rainfall in southern Europe, including the Mediterranean basin.
Because it's impossible to completely ignore the fact that natural weather systems dominate rainfall patterns in Spain and elsewhere, the BBC says flooding will be more severe as rainfall increases by 7% for every degree of temperature rise.
This is inconsistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's confidence in increases in rainfall, river flooding or heavy rainfall, even though climate warming has exceeded a certain level over the past century.
This is pure speculation from the BBC and is not supported by evidence or IPCC findings.
One thing that has almost certainly contributed to the high death tolls and massive damage caused by recent floods is the massive increase in the number of people exposed to flood hazards – The expanded bullseye effect is discussed in climate realism For example, repeat here and here.
Over the past century, Valencia's population has grown from 213,550 in 1900 to 1,582,387 residents in the urban area and 2,522,383 in the metropolitan area.
When more people move to floodplains, floods cause greater damage and more people are harmed.
This is especially true if government authorities do not revise flood plans as the population grows.
Don't ask how Spain could have planned better What floods have happened in the past, or how governments and planners are preparing for expected seasonal flood cycles in the future, The BBC shifted the conversation to the assumption that current infrastructure is not adequate to withstand “new” extremes.
Yet the 1957 floods taught us that extreme flooding has long tested Spain's infrastructure.
In response to the catastrophic events of 1957, Valencia took direct action with the “Plan Sur”, which rerouted the Turia River to protect the city center from future flooding.
Sorry, New development along the distributary channel resulted in new flood damage in areas different from the 1957 flood.
Let’s be clear: reducing meteorological complexity to cliche lines like “caused by climate change” cheapens the discussion. Spain's unique geography and centuries-old storm patterns deserve more attention.
But as usual, the BBC offers an alarmist story on climate change that ignores history, science, common sense and responsibility.
This is bad journalism that misleads the public and makes it harder for them to make rational decisions about the election and weather response.
Above shows the 1957 floods in Valencia, Spain. Photos by Caroline Angus
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