Rafael expected to impact Cayman Islands and Cuba as hurricane » Yale Climate Connection

The Cayman Islands and western parts of Cuba are under hurricane warnings for Tropical Storm Rafael, which formed in the warm waters of the western Caribbean at 5 p.m. ET on Monday. Rafael is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday night and bring hurricane conditions to the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba on Wednesday.

The formation of Rafael provided the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 148 (26% above average). There are an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 117 per season.

Raphael is still in the organizational stage

At 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 5, Rafael was located 200 miles (320 kilometers) east-southeast of Grand Cayman, moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph), with maximum sustained The wind speed was 60 mph (95 km/h) and the central pressure was 994 mb. Cayman Islands radar shows Rafael bringing heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A personal weather station about 10 miles west of Kingston, Jamaica, recorded 3.54 inches (90 millimeters) of rain in the nine hours ending at 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

Satellite imagery shows that Rafael has a small number of severe thunderstorms that are steadily becoming more organized and the storm may begin to build an eyewall and develop a core. Conditions were very favorable for development, with wind shear speeds of 5-10 knots, a very humid atmosphere, very warm sea water, and temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius (86°F) – about 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (1-2°F) earlier than average in early November Temperatures are warm. Temperatures across the Caribbean are near record highs for this time of year, roughly on par with 2023 and well above other years in the past, according to a sea surface temperature analysis from the University of Arizona.

Western Caribbean Rafael Forecast

A ridge of high pressure northeast of Rafael will keep the storm mostly northwestward through Thursday, with the storm's center located about 40 miles (80 kilometers) west of the western tip of Jamaica around 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Travel between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman at around 10 minutes.

Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday morning. After landing in Cuba, it is expected to have very favorable development conditions, with small wind shear, warm sea water, high heat content, and a very humid atmosphere. This could lead to steady to rapid intensification, with Rafael approaching Category 1 hurricane strength over the Cayman Islands tonight and Category 2 hurricane strength near western Cuba on Wednesday morning. The 6Z Tuesday run of the HWRF, HMON and HAFS-A dynamic hurricane models predicts that Rafael will become a Category 1/Category 2 marginal hurricane on Wednesday morning, while the HAFS-B model is more aggressive, predicting a Category 3 hurricane over Cuba Login. The 12Z Tuesday SHIPS model shows a 29% chance of Rafael rapidly intensifying into Category 1 winds with 85 mph winds by Wednesday morning as the storm hits western Cuba.

Raphael's influence on Cuba:Major Threat to Electricity

Rafael is expected to land in Cuba at an inopportune time, as Cuba's largest power plant, the Antonio Guitras power plant, suffered a nationwide blackout from October 18 to 21 and the country's power grid continues to be unstable. The NHC's latest forecast shows that Hurricane Rafael will remain strong as it passes through western Cuba, with the hurricane's center about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the capital, Havana (population 2.1 million). This track would place the city in the dangerous front right quadrant of the storm, causing severe wind damage. Cuba's power infrastructure is very weak. The possible large-scale power outage in western Cuba may last for a long time, and the national power grid may face the risk of collapse.

Rafael expected to be dismembered in Gulf of Mexico

Passing through western Cuba could cause some disruption for Rafael, but once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico it is expected to move northwest over warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius (81-82°F) associated with this circulation. The western Caribbean Sea extends northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday, all four high-resolution dynamic hurricane models had Rafael becoming at least a Category 2 hurricane in the central Gulf.

There is considerable uncertainty about the intensity and location of the low over the central United States that will guide Rafael later this week, the National Hurricane Center commented during a discussion at 10 a.m. ET on Rafael's presence in the Gulf. Path predictions are higher and more uncertain than usual. The GFS model and its ensemble members predict that Rafael will continue to move northwestward, with the storm approaching Louisiana later this week. However, the UKMET model and the European model and their ensemble suggest a westward turn in the Gulf south of the northern Gulf Coast (Fig. 2).

Regardless of Rafael's final path in the Gulf, the storm is expected to be fragmented by strong wind shear and dry air later this week, and most models predict Rafael will not make landfall in the United States as a tropical storm. In recent weeks, recurring fall cold fronts have spread cold air over the bay, causing the water to cool significantly. Water temperatures within about 200 miles (320 kilometers) of the northern Gulf Coast have dropped below 26 degrees Celsius (79°F). What's more, the jet stream has shifted more southward in recent weeks, so Rafael will encounter high wind shear of 20-30 knots if it approaches the U.S. coast. Additionally, very dry air with relative humidity of 45-50% is expected to develop over the central and northern Gulf later this week.

Because Rafael is trapped in an unusually large area of ​​atmospheric moisture in early November, the southeastern United States may experience heavy rains from the moist air ahead of the storm. The National Weather Service has classified much of Georgia and southwestern South Carolina as a “slight risk” for heavy rainfall on Wednesday, where 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall, with locally higher amounts possible.

Another riot could move through the Bahamas toward South Florida later this week

The tail of a northwest Atlantic cold front may attempt to form a tropical disturbance later this week, which will develop over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday before moving west-northwest toward South Florida. Some members of the European model ensemble and most members of the GFS model ensemble show this disturbance developing into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. Confidence in the steering pattern is relatively high, and sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm—enough to support tropical cyclones. However, wind shear and high-rise wind structures will be less than ideal.

In the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 7 a.m. ET Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center projected that the future system would have a 20 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression within seven days, with an almost zero chance of developing into a tropical depression within two days. .