A hurricane warning was issued for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba as Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the warm waters of the western Caribbean at 5pm Monday. Rafael is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday night and bring hurricane conditions to the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba on Wednesday.
The formation of Rafael resulted in a 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 148 (26% above average). There are an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 117 per season.
Raphael is still in the organizational stage
At 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 5, Rafael was located 200 miles (320 kilometers) east-southeast of Grand Cayman, moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph) with maximum sustained The wind speed was 60 mph (95 km/h) and the central pressure was 994 mb. Cayman Islands radar shows Rafael bringing heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A personal weather station about 10 miles west of Kingston, Jamaica, recorded 3.54 inches (90 millimeters) of rain in the nine hours before 11 a.m. ET Tuesday.
Satellite imagery shows Rafael has a moderate number of severe thunderstorms that are steadily increasing and becoming more organized. The storm may begin to form an eyewall and develop an inner core. Conditions were very favorable for development, with wind shear speeds of 5-10 knots, a very humid atmosphere, and very warm sea water with temperatures in the 30s Celsius (86°F), approximately 0.5 to 2°C (1-2°F) in early November. Normally warm. A University of Arizona analysis of sea surface temperatures shows that overall, the Caribbean is close to recording its highest temperatures for this time of year, similar to levels seen in 2023 and well above other previous years.
Western Caribbean Rafael Forecast
A ridge of high pressure northeast of Rafael will keep the storm mainly northwest through Thursday, with the storm center about 40 miles (80 kilometers) west of the western tip of Jamaica around 2 p.m. Tuesday, then 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday Travel between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman at around 10 minutes.
Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday morning. Prior to arrival in Cuba, development conditions were expected to be very favorable, including light wind shear, warm water, high heat content, and a very humid atmosphere. This could lead to stable or rapid intensification of hurricanes, with Rafael reaching Category 1 status in the Cayman Islands tonight and Category 2 status near western Cuba on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday's 6Z HWRF, HMON and HAFS-A dynamic hurricane models predict Rafael will become a Category 1 or borderline Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning, while the HAFS-B model is more aggressive, predicting a Category 3 hurricane affecting Cuba . Tuesday's 12Z SHIPS model shows Rafael will rapidly intensify to Category 1 with 85 mph winds by Wednesday morning, with a 29 percent chance that the storm will impact western Cuba.
Raphael's influence in Cuba: a huge threat to the electricity supply
Rafael is expected to land in Cuba at an inopportune time, as Cuba's power grid continues to be unstable due to a failure at the country's largest Antonio Guitras power plant, which caused a nationwide blackout from October 18 to 21. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Rafael will maintain hurricane strength as it passes through western Cuba, with its center located about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the capital, Havana (population 2.1 million). This track would place the city in the storm's most dangerous front right quadrant, causing severe wind damage. Cuba's power infrastructure is very fragile. The possible large-scale power outage in western Cuba may last for a long time, and the entire national power grid may be at risk of collapse.
Rafael expected to break up in Gulf of Mexico
Passing through western Cuba may disrupt Rafael to some extent, but once the storm emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to move northwest in warm waters of 27-28°C (81-82°F) associated with the circulation, moving from the west The Caribbean Sea extends into the center of the Gulf of Mexico. All four high-resolution hurricane models predict Rafael will reach at least a Category 2 hurricane status in the central Gulf by Thursday.
There is considerable uncertainty about the strength and location of the low over the central United States that will guide Rafael into late this week, the National Hurricane Center commented on Rafael during a discussion at 10 a.m. ET Projections of Erl's trajectory in the Gulf have been subject to greater than usual uncertainty. The GFS model and its ensemble members predict that Rafael will continue to move northwest, with the storm approaching Louisiana this weekend. However, the UKMET model and the European model and their ensemble indicate a westward turn of the Gulf south of the northern Gulf Coast (Fig. 2).
Regardless of Rafael's final path in the Gulf, the storm is expected to explode later this week due to high wind shear and dry air, and most models predict Rafael will not make landfall in the United States as a tropical storm. In recent weeks, recurring fall cold fronts have spread cold air over the bay, causing the water to cool significantly. Waters within about 200 miles (320 kilometers) of the northern Gulf Coast have cooled to below 26 degrees Celsius (79°F). What's more, the jet stream has moved further south in recent weeks, and if it approaches the U.S. coast, Rafael will encounter high wind shear of 20-30 knots. %between.
As Raphael is immersed in an unusually large area of atmospheric moisture in early November, heavy rains are possible over the southeastern United States due to the movement of moist air ahead of the storm. The National Weather Service has classified much of Georgia and southwestern South Carolina as a “slight risk” for excessive rainfall on Wednesday, where three to five inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, could fall.
Another riot could move through the Bahamas toward south Florida later this week
The southern end of the northwest Atlantic cold front may try to organize into a tropical disturbance later this week, which will form southeast of the Bahamas on Friday before moving west or west-northwest toward southern Florida. Some members of the European ensemble model and most members of the GFS model ensemble indicate that this disturbance may develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. Confidence in the steering pattern is relatively high and sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm, which is sufficient to support a tropical cyclone. However, the wind shear and wind structure of the upper floors will be less than ideal.
In the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 7 a.m. ET on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center projected that the future system would have at least a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression within seven days, with a near-zero chance over the next two days.
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