Hurricane Rafael made landfall about 40 miles southwest of Havana in southwestern Cuba at 4:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 6, as a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 956 mb. Rafael was the first major hurricane to make landfall in Cuba in November since Hurricane Michelle in 2001.
Rafael traveled northwest, passing about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of Havana, with peak sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and gusts of 71 mph (71 km/h) measured at 3:50 p.m. EST. 114 km/h). Rafael's strong winds caused severe disruption to Cuba's power grid, triggering an island-wide blackout just days after the country's power grid suffered a complete failure from October 18 to 22.
Rafael was upgraded to a major hurricane on Wednesday, making the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season the 17th storm season with 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 153 (31% above average). There are an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 117 per season.
Rafael interrupted due to flight over Cuba
Rafael flew over western Cuba for two hours before entering the Gulf of Mexico, disrupting the hurricane's core and downgrading the storm to a Category 2 with winds of 105 mph. Nonetheless, Rafael was one of only six November hurricanes in the Gulf (Figure 1) and one of only three Category 2+ storms. The other hurricanes were Category 2 Hurricane Ida in 2009 and Category 3 Hurricane Kate in 1985.
At 10 a.m. EDT on Thursday, November 7, Rafael was located 200 miles (320 kilometers) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h), with maximum sustained Wind speed is 100 mph (160 km/h). Key West radar shows Rafael is bringing some heavy rain to the southwest Florida coast and the Florida Keys, as well as parts of western Cuba. As of 10 a.m. ET Thursday, Rafael had dumped 2-5 inches (50-125 mm) of rain on the Lower Florida Keys. A 24-hour rainfall of 6.30 inches (160 mm) was reported in Jaguey Grande, Cuba. Moisture moved north ahead of Raphael, bringing localized amounts of up to a foot of rain to South Carolina (see blue sky post below).
Satellite images from Thursday showed Rafael's performance was less impressive than Wednesday's. One eye no longer protrudes, and the eyewall thunderstorm's cloud tops are warmer and less symmetrical.
Rafael is expected to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico
Over the next three days, Rafael's current will move primarily westward, keeping the storm's core away from any land areas. Rafael is located in waters with a temperature of 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and is associated with a circulation that extends from the western Caribbean Sea northward to the central Gulf of Mexico. As the hurricane moves westward, sea temperatures will drop by about 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F). Wind shear is expected to be 10-20 knots, but Rafael will move into increasingly dry air and wind shear should weaken significantly by early next week.
There is considerable model uncertainty on Raphael's track early next week. The two thick black lines in Figure 2 above show that the European model (left) predicts a west-southwest track to Mexico, while the GFS model (right) predicts a northerly track to Louisiana. About half of the European band members and nearly all of the GFS members tended to head north, toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast. This more northerly track would have taken Rafael into an area of greater wind shear and drier air, causing wind speeds to weaken rapidly, and none of the team members charted U.S. hurricane landfall.
Riots unlikely in Leeward Islands
A tropical disturbance over the Leeward Islands moving westward at about 15 mph will bring 1-2 inches of heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Bringing 1-2 inches of heavy rain. 6Z Some members of the European and GFS model clusters on Thursday indicated that this disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook released at 7 a.m. ET Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave a 20 percent chance of the system developing in two and seven days. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Sarah.
Bob Henson contributed to this article.
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