Hurricane Rafael made landfall in southwestern Cuba, approximately 40 miles southwest of Havana, at 4:15 pm (EST) on Wednesday, October 6, with winds of 115 mph (185 km) and a Category 3 in the center storm. Rafael was the first major hurricane to make landfall in Cuba in November since Hurricane Michelle in 2001.
Rafael traveled northwest, passing about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of Havana, where sustained winds were measured at 44 mph (71 km/h), with gusts as high as 71 mph (114 km/h) at 3:50 p.m. ) (EST) ). Rafael's strong winds caused severe disruption to Cuba's power grid, causing blackouts across the island, just days after the country's power grid suffered a complete failure between October 18 and 22.
Rafael was upgraded to a major hurricane on Wednesday, bringing the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 153 (31% above average). There are an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 117 per season.
Rafael affected by flying over Cuba
Rafael flew over western Cuba for two hours before emerging in the Gulf of Mexico, impacting the hurricane's core, reducing its intensity to Category 2 with winds of 105 mph. However, Rafael was one of only six November hurricanes in the Gulf (Figure 1) and one of only three Category 2 or higher hurricanes. The other hurricanes were Category 2 Hurricane Ida in 2009 and Category 3 Hurricane Kate in 1985.
At 10 a.m. EDT on Thursday, November 7, Rafael was located 200 miles (320 kilometers) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h) with sustained winds to 100 mph (160 km/h) ) and a center pressure of 971 MB. Key West radar showed Rafael bringing heavy rain to the southwest coast of Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as parts of western Cuba. As of 10 a.m. ET Thursday, Rafael brought 2 to 5 inches (50-125 mm) of rain to the Lower Florida Keys. A 24-hour rainfall of 6.30 inches (160 mm) was reported in Jagüey Grande, Cuba. Moisture moved northward ahead of Raphael, causing localized rainfall amounts of up to a foot in South Carolina.
Satellite images on Thursday showed Rafael's performance was less impressive than on Wednesday. The eye is no longer prominent, and the eyewall storm's cloud tops are warmer and less symmetrical.
Rafael expected to weaken in Gulf of Mexico
Rafael's turning tide moved primarily westward over the next three days, moving the storm's core away from land. Rafael is located in warm 82°F (28°C) waters associated with the gyre, which extends from the western Caribbean Sea northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. As a hurricane moves westward, it will encounter water that is about 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) cooler. Wind shear is expected to be moderate at 10-20 knots, but Rafael will move into increasingly drier air, which should cause wind shear to weaken significantly early next week.
As of early next week, there is considerable model uncertainty regarding Raphael's path. The two black lines in Figure 2 above show the European model (left) predicting a west-southwest trajectory toward Mexico, while the GFS model (right) predicts a north-southwest trajectory toward Louisiana. About half of the European model group members and nearly all of the GFS are leaning toward a northerly route, toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast. This further northerly route will take Rafael into areas with greater wind shear and drier air. area, this will cause wind speeds to weaken rapidly.
Riots unlikely in Leeward Islands
A tropical disturbance over the Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Thursday's 6Z Europe and some members of the GFS model cluster showed the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook released at 7 a.m. ET Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave a 20 percent chance for the system to develop in two and seven days. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Sarah.
Bob Hansen contributed to this article.
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