In the 173 years of Atlantic hurricane records, only a handful of storms have ever roamed the Gulf of Mexico as hurricanes, but then died before making landfall on the Gulf Coast as tropical cyclones. To the delight of Gulf Coast residents, this month's Hurricane Rafael is expected to join the short list of eight underperforming hurricanes and will be the only major hurricane among them.
Rafael briefly intensified into a Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf early Friday, becoming the most westerly major hurricane ever recorded in November. Thankfully, Rafael will stay on the water, although its effects will be felt along the Gulf Coast. pic.twitter.com/B2StQ0nNly
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) November 8, 2024
As of 4 p.m. ET on Friday, Rafael was a compact Category 2 hurricane located about 500 miles (805 kilometers) east of Brownsville, Texas, with winds of 9 mph (14 kph) / hour) moving westward. Minimum center pressure is 967 mb. Rafael's top sustained winds dropped to 100 mph (161 kph) after peaking at 120 mph (193 kph) early Friday, a level that brought it to Category 3 intensity, the same level as in 1985 Hurricane Kate tied for the strongest November Gulf hurricane on record.
Severe thunderstorms remained within Rafael late Friday night, but they were no longer clearly visible on satellite imagery, and wind shear limited upper-level wind flow to the west of Rafael.
Raphael had no shortage of warm water to keep him alive. As of November 7, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico reached historically high levels for the year. But dry air lurking to the north and west of Rafael and high pressure to the west of Rafael will keep the storm from moving landward while reducing showers and thunderstorms (convection) through the weekend. Mid-level relative humidity around Rafael is expected to drop from 45-50% Friday afternoon to 25-30% Monday. Over time, dry air and wind shear can weaken Raphael's convection and damage its structure.
In a forecast issued at 4 p.m. ET on Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that Rafael will weaken to below hurricane strength by Saturday night and become a remnant low on Monday, drifting south toward the Bay of Campeche.
284 in total #hurricane In NOAA's database from 1851 to 2023, only 8 ships failed to make at least one TD landing on the Gulf Coast
Marco (2020) is the latest.
look like #rafael will be the ninth. pic.twitter.com/rYsuLYHveO
— Jonathan Edelman (@wxjerdman) November 8, 2024
Raphael's Analogy: Hurricane Jeanne in 1980
Among the Gulf hurricanes that failed to make landfall as tropical cyclones, the strongest was “Jenny” (see Figure 2 above). Jeanne reached its peak Category 2 intensity on November 11, 1980, in the south-central Gulf, not far from where Rafael reached its peak intensity. Similar to Rafael's expected trajectory, Jeanne moved westward but encountered a blocking high, trapping it near the coast of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, where it moved erratically while weakening and eventually Merge with the front.
Also failing to make landfall before dissipating in the Gulf was Category 1 Hurricane Alberto (1982). The latter was a storm in early June that intensified in the bay off Cuba's northwest coast, causing devastating flooding that killed 23 people and caused more than $200 million in damage (2024 USD).
Like Alberto, Rafael caused major problems for Cuba before entering the Gulf. Category 3 storm Rafael made landfall on Cuba's southwestern coast on Wednesday, knocking out Cuba's national power grid for a day – the second such failure in the past month. Reuters reported on Friday that the Havana area remained without power as of Thursday evening, but no timetable for restoration had been announced.
As hurricane season draws to a close, attention remains on Caribbean and nearby areas
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th. Temperatures in the Caribbean remain warm enough to support hurricane development, with the average temperature on November 7 being around 29.5 degrees Celsius (85 degrees Fahrenheit), warmer than any other year except last year (2023). Any development in the Caribbean still deserves attention for its regional impact.
Jeff Masters contributed to this article.
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