from masterresource
Kennedy Corn
“What to expect from COP 29 in Baku in November? In the words of the great American philosopher Lawrence “Yogi” Berra: “It will be like deja vu all over again.”
Remember COP28? Forget it. Most everyone else has. This is COP 29, taking place from November 11 to 24, 2024, the 29th annual international greenwashing event on the actions the world has committed to taking to combat climate change caused by man-made global warming. Most of these meetings have had little real impact, generating more heat, resentment, posturing and light – sometimes even state-sponsored repression – than significant measurable reductions in greenhouse gas (mainly carbon dioxide) emissions. action.
The official name of these much-hyped, often overlooked and sometimes amusing gatherings is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, inevitably abbreviated to UNFCC. The choice of Azerbaijan to host this conference is of great significance. It is the third predominantly Muslim country and third authoritarian regime to host the conference: Egypt in 2022, the United Arab Emirates in 2023 and Azerbaijan in November.
Welcome to Baku, population 2 million, the capital of Azerbaijan, population 10 million. Azerbaijan is the second major oil producer in a row to host the gathering, which sees fossil fuels, at least rhetorically, as a key driver of rising global temperatures.
Azerbaijan: oil power
The country is located on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea: to the north is Russia and Georgia, to the east is Armenia (including territory claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan), and to the south is Iran. The country has strong ties to oil. According to the International Energy Agency, oil and gas account for 90% of the country's export earnings and around 60% of the state budget. The roots of oil are deep.
The birthplace of petroleum, oil production began around 1850 with the drilling of wells and expanded with the introduction of kerosene lamps and the internal combustion engine. By the beginning of the 20th century, Azerbaijan had become the world's leading oil country, producing more than half of the world's supply, and was known as the “Black Gold Capital.”
The Republic of Azerbaijan was a satellite state of the Soviet Union from 1920 to 1991. It was nominally a “semi-presidential republic”, meaning it had both a democratically elected president and a parliamentary prime minister, but in fact since 1993 Heydar Aliyev Aliyev has been a hereditary monarchy since he came to power. His son Ilhan Aliyev now leads the country and hand-picked the host team that will lead the conference.
The country has a poor record on human rights. According to a 2023 analysis by Human Rights Watch,
The government severely restricted freedoms of speech, assembly, and association. Despite some progress in notorious torture cases, torture and ill-treatment in police custody and detention facilities persist.
U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) earlier this month criticized the choice of Azerbaijan to host the conference. Cardin is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and will retire at the end of this Congress. He said, “Hosting a major international conference like COP29 should carry responsibilities and expectations, that is, the host country allows frank discussion of information and issues, which requires recognition of freedom of speech and assembly.” Azerbaijan has not done so.
Kadin called on Haidar’s government to “release those unjustly imprisoned by the government, including Armenian detainees, as well as community activists who have peacefully demonstrated against poor labor practices and harmful environmental impacts of the Jovdal gold mine operation.”
Agenda 29
When the policy waffle chefs of the world arrive in Baku in November, the formal and informal agenda will be familiar: advancing government-favored technologies and energy, portraying their patrons as environmental saints, and avoiding aid to poor countries. The embarrassing problem is that they may suffer from the effects of climate change, but they are doing very little compared to the world's rich countries that are causing the problem.
For most formal representatives representing mature and entrenched industries and countries, Job 1 will be damage control. It is reported financial times (September 13):
Western countries involved in global climate change negotiations say oil-rich countries are working together to slow progress on a landmark deal to end the use of fossil fuels.
At COP 28 (remember that?), the conference agreed to “transition” away from fossil fuels by 2050 (a future far enough in the future that there would be few immediate consequences) and to triple renewable energy by 2030. A side agreement, not part of the deal An official conference led by nuclear powers has called for tripling global nuclear power generation capacity by 2030, an unachievable goal.
The Financial Times lists Saudi Arabia, Russia and Bolivia as oil producers in the hope of halting the phasing out of fossil energy. The United States, the world's largest oil producer, is likely to produce press releases with some word salad. Azerbaijan may tap dance around the topic during its hosting duties.
compensatory gymnastics
Another long-standing question is what, how much, how and when the wealthy will compensate victims of poverty. Scottish nation According to the report, “Finance is expected to dominate the COP29 conference to be held in Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, with countries still deadlocked on how to provide more funds to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.”
An early Conference of the Parties agreed to establish a $100 billion annual compensation fund, but did not specify how it would work, how much would be allocated, or other necessary details. COP28 agreed to “operate” such a fund, whatever that specifically means, and undoubtedly does nothing. The United States has pledged $100 million, but without administrative mechanisms and transfers of funds, this pledge is meaningless.
Looking at Dubai's compensation agreement, one critic commented that the agreement “contains no specific details on size, financial targets or financing methods. Instead, the decision simply “invites” developed countries to “take the lead” in providing funding and Support and encourage commitment from other parties.
It also did not detail which countries would be eligible for the funds, stating vaguely that funds would be used for “economic and non-economic losses and damages related to the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow-onset events.” So far, the promises have been underwhelming.
According to the Financial Times, at a pre-conference technical meeting in Baku in mid-month, “African governments called for more measures to be taken [$1.3 trillion] A year in climate finance.
in conclusion
COP29 continues on the path outlined in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. James Hanson, the father of modern climate activism, commented at the time that Paris
It's really a scam, fake. It's just crap…no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels, they will continue to burn.
What to expect from COP 29 in Baku in November? In the words of the great American philosopher Lawrence “Yogi” Berra: “It was like deja vu all over again.”
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