From the Daily Skeptic
by Tilak Doshi
Another year, another Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is about to be held. The 29th Conference of the Parties is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan. The event started yesterday and will last for 11 days.
My view of last year’s UN climate conference, which was attended by a record 86,000 delegates, was actually pessimistic (some would say cynical):
Apart from high-sounding communiqués, more fanfare from climate NGOs and alarmist headlines from traditional media, COP28 in Dubai will most likely not produce anything of real significance.
But the sea change brought about by Tuesday's election of US president-elect Donald Trump – an avowed “climate denier” whose campaign has pledged to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for a second time – must leave the West behind The church faithful were stunned. Trump's reelection as president, combined with a Republican majority in the Senate, would bring about what financial and energy consultant Doomberg called “a whirlwind about to hit the progressive environmental left.” [that] The impact will be felt for decades.”
Pragmatists and alarmists at COP28
Trump’s victory is equally important for the prospects for the globalist climate change agenda, but let’s take a step back to understand the context.
Not surprisingly, in the past year since COP28, large developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam have continued to implement their ambitious plans to increase coal mining capacity and build the new fossil fuel power plants needed to grow their economies. .
It is also not surprising that the Biden administration and center-left governments in Europe and the UK continue to zealously pursue “net-zero emissions by 2050”, a mantra that Western governments have focused on since the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Many governments in the global South are struggling to obtain affordable fossil fuels. Meanwhile, as climate alarmism continues for three decades, Western policymakers continue to demonize fossil fuels and foster (with taxpayer money) their favored green technologies, such as electric vehicles, solar and wind power, and “green” Hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, many of which have yet to be proven commercially viable.
Western governments rely on their control of major financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to veto the development and use of fossil fuels in developing countries in the name of the “climate crisis.” Carbon colonialism hypocritically deprives developing countries of the means to climb the energy ladder now used by developed countries to achieve industrial prosperity and high living standards.
Last year’s COP28 became a crossroads for conflicts between the “energy pragmatists” and “climate alarmist” camps – roughly equivalent to the conflict between the “Southern countries” and the “Western collective”. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Chairman of the COP28 Climate Summit and CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said in an interview: “You are asking for the phase-out of fossil fuels… Please help me, show me the road map. The phase-out of fossil fuels will be achieved permanently. Continued socio-economic development, unless you want to take the world back to the cave.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman further amplified Jaber's comments, telling Bloomberg that the world's largest oil exporter would not agree to Western demands to phase out fossil fuels. “Absolutely not,” he said in an interview in Riyadh. “I guarantee you, no one – and I'm talking about the government – believes this… If they think this is the highest moral issue, that's great. Let them do it themselves. We'll see what they do How much can be provided.
President-elect Trump takes the stage
Oh, what a difference a year—and a U.S. presidential election—makes! As expected, within 48 hours of the election results being announced, mainstream media outlets were awash with headlines:
Bloomberg: “Trump’s stranglehold adds to growing doubts in climate talks”
Euronews: “Trump’s victory casts a pall over upcoming COP global climate talks”
Politico: 'No leader can continue to check Trump's climate wreckage'
MSN News: “Trump’s climate denial and green rollback will worsen warming”
BBC News: “Trump victory a major setback for climate action, experts say”
The activist journalist's swipe at traditional media over what a Trump victory would mean for the globalist climate agenda was one of the less interesting aspects of this year's U.N. climate extravaganza in Baku.
COP29 summit, under the shadow of Trump's return as the 47th Secretary of Stateth The President of the United States will be noteworthy for other, more lasting reasons. When the United States issued its first official notice of withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 during President Trump's first term, just three years later — coincidentally the day after the 2020 election — the decision came into effect under United Nations rules. President Joe Biden immediately restored U.S. participation in the U.N. agreement upon taking office. This time, once the Trump administration submits a withdrawal notice to the United Nations after taking office on January 20, it will take a year for the withdrawal to take effect under the terms of the agreement.th 2025.
But more important than the formal details of the UN's bureaucratic rules is the fact that next year the incoming Trump administration is expected to withdraw from the (non-binding) Paris Agreement for a second time, at a time when other Western countries that dominate the global environmental agenda are themselves Already financially exhausted.
Hours after the results of the US election were announced, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner due to a deadlock on spending and economic reforms, and the collapse of Germany's three-party ruling coalition government. The fiscal constraints imposed by years of irrational energy policies that deindustrialized and impoverished the EU economy have been punished.
Sanctions imposed on Russia's supply of cheap energy imports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have had a negative impact on Europe, effectively undermining Europe's climate leadership. Its farmers have revolted. Disloyal to the luxurious beliefs of the Brussels bureaucracy and political elites in Berlin, Paris and London, its working and middle classes have come to support the populist right as a force in the European political order.
it's all about money
The Baku UN climate summit has been dubbed the “Climate Finance Conference of the Parties” because of its core objective: to agree on how much money should be invested each year to help developing countries cope with “climate-related costs.” Judging from the current US$100 billion in annual climate financing commitments by rich countries (which have not been realized in most years), some negotiators hope to transfer US$1 trillion per year to developing countries for “climate mitigation and adaptation goals.”
But in the United States, “Bidenomics”, the United Nations' largest contributor to climate finance, and the duplicitous “Inflation Reduction Act” that promised huge subsidies for “green” energy were roundly rejected at the ballot box last week.
Trump's climate skepticism will once again encourage U.S. dominance of global oil and gas markets, continuing a strong theme from his first term. One might think that even Europe's climate-obsessed elites would be under no illusions about the Trump administration's push at the United Nations to divert massive financial resources to poor countries to combat severe weather. As someone on Main Street America might say, “that’s not going to happen” under Trump.
In fact, Trump's most ardent supporter may be COP29 host Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, who described his country's oil and gas resources as “a gift from God.” ”. Trump’s electoral victory was perfectly timed to put the nail in the coffin of the globalist environmental agenda.
Dr. Tilak K. Doshi is an economist, former Forbes contributor, and member of the CO2 Alliance. Follow him on Substack and X.
Stop pressing: Heather Mac Donald wrote a brilliant diatribe for COP29 city daily: “Any doubts about the wisdom of the next Trump administration potentially withdrawing from such meetings should be dispelled by photos of the meetings alone.”
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