Tropical Storm Sala forms in western Caribbean and threatens Honduras » Yale Climate Relations

Tropical Depression 19 formed over near-record warm waters in the western Caribbean at 4 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 14, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sala in just 9 hours. The formation of Sara brings the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. There are an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per season. By tonight, the cumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index for the season will reach 160 (31% above average), officially classifying 2024 as a hyperactive season, according to the Colorado State University Seasonal Forecast Team. This is the first time the name Sarah has been used since it was added to the Atlantic rankings following catastrophic Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

EDT Thursday, Sala was about 50 miles northeast of where the Nicaragua-Honduras border meets the Caribbean Sea. Sara is moving west-south at 12 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph and could make landfall in northeastern Honduras as soon as Thursday evening. Sala is expected to move slowly westward over the next few days, bringing 10 to 20 inches of rain to northern Honduras and surrounding areas, with locally higher amounts possible and the risk of catastrophic flooding. Trujillo, on the northeastern coast of Honduras, had recorded 90.1 millimeters (3.55 inches) of rain in 30 hours as of 1 p.m. ET Thursday.

After a very slow period in August and early September, the Atlantic produced 11 named storms from September 24 to November 14, according to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. A record for the same period that year.

Sarah's trajectory and intensity forecast

Large-scale predictions for Sarah have become more reliable, but small-scale details are particularly complex. In fact, as of early Thursday, all forecasts from European models and the GFS ensemble show that Sara will slowly move westward south of a high-pressure ridge through the weekend, then move northwest around the high-pressure edge and cross Mexico early next week Yucatan Peninsula.

Sara's initial westward trajectory will keep its center near the northern coast of Honduras, possibly just offshore or possibly on land at some point. In addition to land interactions, climatic conditions favor Sara, with a very moist atmosphere, light to moderate wind shear, and near-record sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content.

Depending on how long the center remains above water, Sara may intensify slightly or weaken to tropical depression levels at times. Regardless, continued interaction with Honduras' rugged terrain should prevent Sara from organizing into a severe tropical storm or hurricane. Unfortunately, this slow westward movement near the coast will push large amounts of moisture into the mountains of Honduras, causing heavy rainfall and the potential for devastating flash floods and landslides.

Models now agree on Sara's long-term path next week as a weak tropical cyclone moving from the northern and northeastern Yucatan Peninsula toward the Gulf of Mexico. In addition to extensive interactions with land up to that point, such a trajectory would have taken Sara over considerably colder waters and into drier air masses, greatly reducing any threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sara (or its aftermath) could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to parts of Florida on Wednesday.

The most recent hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Kate (a Category 2 hurricane near Mexico Beach, Florida, on November 22, 1985); the last hurricane to impact the Atlantic was Otto (a Category 3 hurricane in southeastern Nicaragua on November 24, 2016). Category hurricane).

Honduras is still recovering from multiple hurricane disasters over the past 20 years

There is some ominous precedent for late-season tropical cyclones lingering over or near Honduras. This tragic archive includes Hurricane Mitch, which reached Category 5 in late October 1998 before stalling over Honduras as a weakening tropical storm and dumping heavy rains, with unofficial local rainfall amounts of up to 75 inches. Catastrophic landslides and flash floods killed more than 11,000 people, including 7,000 in Honduras and 3,800 in Nicaragua, making Mitch the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in more than 200 years. “Hurricane Mitch was more than just a storm. It ended a decade of unusual optimism in Central America, a lasting blow to a region that has yet to fully recover, and a warning of what could happen again in this era of extreme climate change unless society Lessons learned,” Luis Guillermo Solis wrote in Americas Quarterly’s 2022 review.

Most recently, Hurricane Eta made landfall in northern Nicaragua on November 3, 2020, as a Category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph. Eta moved very slowly as it made landfall, lingering over Central America and adjacent waters for three days, bringing more than 20 inches of catastrophic rain. Just two weeks later, Hurricane Iota made landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds just 15 miles from where Iota hit. Heavy rains from Eta flooded already-damaged areas that are still trying to recover from Eta's devastation.

According to ReliefWeb, Eta and Iota caused more than 100 deaths and more than $4 billion in damage in the impoverished country. The two hurricanes damaged or destroyed 110 bridges and 267 roads, and destroyed large areas of productive farmland. Economic activity in the San Pedro Sula Valley in northwestern Honduras, which accounts for 60% of the country's GDP, has been severely disrupted.

A 2023 report prepared by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for the first United Nations Workshop on Loss and Damage in the context of the Paris Agreement found that Eta and Iota directly affected 3.9 million people (more than 10% of the population of Honduras) indirectly. 40%) and reduce the country's gross domestic product by 0.8% in 2020, resulting in a decrease in the country's total GDP. It was 8.2% that year, largely related to COVID-19. The report states that the Honduran government has only borne 12% of the national losses and damages caused by Eta and Iota, leaving a funding gap of as high as 88%.

In 2021, the year after Eta and Iota, the number of migrants heading to the U.S. border from Honduras increased significantly. Among the overlapping factors at play, the third most frequently cited factor (46% of migrants) is environmental factors, including hurricanes, droughts and climate change, according to a 2023 report by the Inter-American Human Rights Advocacy Group.