Tropical Storm Sala forms in western Caribbean, threatening Honduras » Yale Climate Relations

Tropical Depression 19 formed over near-record warm waters in the western Caribbean at 4 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 14, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sala in just 9 hours. Sara's formation provides 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. There are an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per season. As of tonight, the season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index will reach 160 (31% above average), which would officially make 2024 a hyperactive season, according to the definition used by Colorado State University's Seasonal Forecast Team . This is the first time the name “Sarah” has been used since 2012's catastrophic hurricane/superstorm Sandy was added to the Atlantic list.

As of 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Sara was centered about 50 miles northeast of where the Nicaragua/Honduras border meets the Caribbean Sea. Sala is moving due west-south at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and could make landfall in northeastern Honduras as early as late Thursday. Over the next few days, Sara is expected to move slowly westward, bringing widespread rainfall of 10 to 20 inches to northern Honduras and surrounding areas, with locally higher amounts possible and the potential for catastrophic flooding. As of 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Trujillo, on Honduras' northeastern coast, had recorded 30-hour rainfall of 90.1 mm (3.55 inches).

Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) said that after a very slow period in August and early September, the Atlantic produced 11 named storms from September 24 to November 14, a record for the calendar period number.

Sarah's trajectory and intensity forecast

Sarah's large-scale predictions became a little more confident, but small-scale details were particularly complex. In fact, as of early Thursday, all forecasts from the European and GFS ensemble models had Sara moving slowly westward into the coming weekend south of a strong ridge of high pressure, then taking it northwest around the edge of high pressure and cross the Yucatan Peninsula to the Mexican Peninsula early next week.

Sala's initial westward trajectory will put its center near the northern coast of Honduras—perhaps just offshore, or sometimes just onshore. In addition to land interactions, climate conditions favored Sara, including a very moist atmosphere, light to moderate wind shear, and near-record warm sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. Depending on how long the center is above water, Sara may intensify slightly at times or weaken to tropical depression status. Regardless, continued interaction with the rugged Honduran terrain should prevent Sara from organizing into a severe tropical storm or hurricane. Unfortunately, slow westward movement near the coast will push large amounts of moisture into the Honduras mountains, causing extreme rainfall and the potential for devastating flash floods and mudslides.

Ensemble models currently agree closely on Sara's longer path as a weak tropical cyclone moving north and northeast from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. In addition to the extensive land interactions to date, such an orbit would take Sara over much cooler waters and into drier air masses, greatly reducing any threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sara (or its aftermath) could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to parts of Florida on Wednesday.

The latest hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season is Kate (Category 2, near Mexico Beach, Florida, on November 22, 1985); the last hurricane on record to make landfall in the Atlantic is Otto (on November 24, 2016, near Mexico Beach, Florida) Category 3 hurricane in southeastern Nicaragua).

Honduras still recovering from multiple hurricane disasters Over the past 20 years

There are several ominous precedents for late-season tropical cyclones stalling over or near Honduras. This tragic archive includes Hurricane Mitch, which reached Category 5 intensity in late October 1998 before stalling over Honduras as a weakening tropical storm and dumping heavy rains, with unofficial local rainfall amounts of up to 75 inches. Catastrophic mudslides and flash floods killed more than 11,000 people, including 7,000 in Honduras and 3,800 in Nicaragua, making Mitch the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in more than 200 years. “Hurricane Mitch was more than just a storm. It ended a decade of unusual optimism in Central America, a lasting blow that the region has yet to fully recover from, and a warning of what will happen in this extreme climate if societies don't learn the lessons. What might happen again in changing times, writes Luis Guillermo Solís in Americas Quarterly’s 2022 Review.

Most recently, Hurricane Eta made landfall in northern Nicaragua on November 3, 2020, as a Category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph. Eta moved very slowly as it made landfall, lingering over Central America and adjacent waters for three days, dropping more than 20 inches of catastrophic rainfall. Just two weeks later, Hurricane Iota made landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds just 15 miles from where Iota struck. Torrential rains from Eta inundated flooded areas still trying to recover from Eta.

Together, Eta and Iota caused more than 100 deaths and more than $4 billion in damage in the impoverished country, according to ReliefWeb. The two hurricanes damaged or destroyed 110 bridges and 267 roads, and destroyed large areas of productive farmland. 60% of Honduras' GDP comes from the San Pedro Sula Valley in northwestern Honduras, and economic activity in the region has been severely disrupted.

A 2023 report prepared by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for the first United Nations workshop on loss and damage in the context of the Paris Agreement found that Eta and Iota directly and indirectly affected 3.9 million people (more than the population of Honduras 40%), the country's gross domestic product fell by 0.8% in 2020, resulting in an overall GDP decline of 8.2% that year, which is largely related to the new crown epidemic. The report states that the Honduran government has only shouldered 12% of the national losses and damages caused by Eta and Iota, leaving a funding gap of 88%.

In 2021, the year after the Eta and Iota attacks, migration from Honduras to the U.S. border surged by an order of magnitude. According to a 2023 report by the Inter-American Human Rights Advocacy Group, the third most frequently cited factor (46% of immigrants) among overlapping factors affecting work was environmental factors, including hurricanes, droughts and climate change.