Author: Diana Fuchgot-Ross
29thth Participants at the Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan were filled with dire predictions: Under President-elect Trump, the world’s climate will get worse. But when Trump follows through on his campaign promise to increase U.S. oil and gas production and lifts President Biden's moratorium on new LNG exports, global emissions are likely to fall rather than rise.
This is because U.S. natural gas exports typically displace coal, reducing global CO2 emissions2 emission. Even Germany, Europe's largest manufacturer, is using lignite (rather than less polluting bituminous coal) to address a shortage of renewable energy because it has closed nuclear power plants and Russian natural gas is no longer available.
About 3 billion people in emerging economies lack electricity and running water and rely on wood and dung to cook. Natural gas power plants will reduce particulate matter in wood and manure, making the air cleaner. Under President Joe Biden, the World Bank will no longer provide loans to fossil fuel power plants.
More U.S. gas exports would lower the price of Russian and Qatari gas, hurting countries that invade Ukraine and have ties to Iran. Prices are determined based on future production, and even announcing energy production can weaken America's enemies.
Natural gas production lowers U.S. CO2 emissions2It has fallen by 1 billion tons over the past 16 years as natural gas replaced coal for power generation. During the same period, CO2 China's emissions increased by 5 billion tons.
Between 2022 and 2023, U.S. coal exports to Europe will increase by 22% compared with the previous year. Since coal emits more emissions than natural gas, it is surprising that Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm did not call for a moratorium on coal exports, only on natural gas.
U.S. natural gas exports to Europe have been surging since Russia cut natural gas flows in 2022. The U.S. exported an average of nearly 12 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day in 2023, more than any other country, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Europe is the United States' largest customer, and EU President Ursula von der Leyen said in a phone call to President-elect Trump that U.S. gas could replace Russian gas.
But even if the United States immediately stopped using all fossil fuels, global temperatures would drop by only two-tenths of a degree Celsius by 2100, according to government modeling. This is because China, India, Africa and Latin America are increasing their use of coal to match Western living standards. China has large supplies of coal but little natural gas and uses domestic coal supplies to generate electricity to power its global manufacturing capabilities.
A second Trump administration will not only encourage natural gas production It would also more quickly allow pipelines and LNG terminals to transport gas from the country’s interior to ports and into export terminals for shipment to Europe and Asia.
U.S. natural gas production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day, higher than pre-pandemic levels, but production is largely on private land. That number could be higher if Biden doesn't restrict leasing on federal lands and pipeline approvals are faster.
Trump's energy plan includes reforms that would allow different energy sources to compete on a level playing field, open up more land to natural gas development, reverse Biden's climate agenda, accelerate the development of nuclear technology and protect the energy grid.
Unlike Biden, Trump will not direct the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to slow construction of pipelines and liquefied natural gas export terminals in the name of a transition to renewable energy. Nor will Trump direct the Securities and Exchange Commission to block investment in pipelines or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to block loans for fossil fuel projects.
The more natural gas is exported, the lower global emissions will be. With Trump's changes, natural gas will be able to get to where it's needed thanks to faster infrastructure permitting.
As the northern hemisphere enters winter, the need for more energy for homes and businesses becomes more urgent, and natural gas is cleaner than coal. COP29 attendees have no reason to demonize Trump’s energy agenda, which will benefit the environment.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth serves as director of the Center for Energy, Climate, and the Environment and as a Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in Energy and Environmental Policy at The Heritage Foundation.
This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and provided via RealClearWire.
Relevant
