not many people know
Paul Homewood
Starmer has just confirmed at COP29 that the UK will officially target to reduce emissions by 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels.
This is consistent with the CCC’s call last month that I analyze here. As I pointed out at the time, the emissions reductions achieved so far are low-hanging fruit, albeit expensive! But as time goes by, it gets harder and harder.
Many non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions have been slashed, which means CO2 emissions must be slashed. We can build more wind farms, but there's no getting away from the fact that electricity currently accounts for only about 10% of emissions, so deep cuts are needed elsewhere.
And this is just the beginning. Over the next 15 years we should have no emissions.
Back in 2020, a group called UK FIRES published an honest assessment of how we can get to net zero emissions. UK FIRES is a UK government-sponsored research program that aims to support a 20% reduction in the UK’s real emissions by 2050 by placing resource efficiency at the heart of the UK’s future industrial strategy.
I reported here at the time that their report was “absolutely zero.” Nothing has really changed since then – we have no new technology to solve the problem, our reliance on intermittent wind and solar is limited, electric cars and heat pumps remain unaffordable and impractical, and people want more Everything, and no less.
The grim analysis by the British Fire Service remains correct.
Their report begins like this:
Below is what I wrote at the time. Everything I said is still true.
For many people, “saving the planet” means nothing more than building wind farms, planting trees and reducing plastic use. However, the public is gradually beginning to realize that this will have a huge impact on their lives.
Still, things like scrapping gas boilers and switching to electric vehicles “won't happen for decades, so why worry now?”
However, a new study funded by the UK government warns that if we are to achieve zero emissions targets, the way we live will have to change dramatically – and much sooner than we think.
The UK fire report Absolute Zero Emissions calls for all UK airports to be closed by 2050 because there are no practical alternatives to zero-emission flying. But as part of that timetable, all airports except Heathrow, Glasgow and Belfast must close by 2030.
Suddenly, air travel will be effectively banned across much of the country because Heathrow simply cannot cater for a fraction of the demand. (Heathrow currently carries a quarter of the UK’s passengers).
But this is just one in a long list of changes being forced on the British public. The report concludes that we cannot count on technological innovation to save us.
If you think we can simply rely on renewable energy, forget it. As UK FIRES points out, even with the rapid growth of renewable energy, we still need to cut energy use by 40%, and that's not even taking into account air travel and shipping.
So forget electric cars as a solution because we won't have enough electricity to power them. The British Fire Service recommends that the number of cars on the road be reduced by 40%. Their advice – take more trains and ignore the sky-high prices, the very limited routes the railways offer and how you should get around once you reach your destination. The idea that we would all be willing to give up our cars and travel by train or bus is very naive.
The report also conveniently ignores the high CO2 footprint of manufacturing electric vehicles.
Heating is another area where we must reduce emissions. The British Fire Service wants us to buy a heat pump but doesn't seem to realize it will cost £10,000 more per home than a traditional boiler. They also don't seem to realize that heat pumps can't provide the heat we need in the middle of winter, or that the grid simply can't handle this surge in demand, even if they could.
Or maybe they do! Their guidance includes reducing the amount of time you use the heating, reducing the number of rooms and wearing warm clothes in winter.
Our diets won't escape either, as we will have to give up eating beef and lamb, let alone frozen ready meals. While we are expected to rely on arable agriculture, they also hope to drastically reduce the use of chemical fertilizers.
Meanwhile, the construction industry may come to a standstill as cement is phased out. Unfortunately, the actual manufacturing of cement produces emissions regardless of the energy used.
Forget house building, new hospitals and infrastructure, they want us to focus on retrofitting and retrofitting existing buildings.
Ironically, as the report acknowledges, we don't know how to install new renewable energy sources or build new energy-efficient buildings without cement.
If all this wasn't bad enough, they want to ban all imports by 2050 unless they can be transported by rail, which could be a problem considering we are an island! Of course, we don’t yet have zero-emission cargo ships, nor will they in the foreseeable future.
Unless we go back to the rationing methods of the 1940s, how we can feed ourselves without importing food is a mystery. Now you can forget about all the other stuff you got from abroad.
For example, what about computers and electronics? Without access to the latest technology, we will soon become an international backwater. It's like the country is back in the 90s style with Nokia phones, VHS and floppy disks!
Some may be replaced by British-made products, but it is difficult to see how industrial capacity can be restored amid planned limits on construction, energy use and industrial emissions.
But it’s not just shipping emissions that worry the authors. They also say we must be responsible for all emissions produced in the production of imported goods.
So, you might ask, how do we live in this glorious, emissions-free future?
UK Fire says we have nothing to worry about! Clearly, we can continue to do the things we love most with absolutely zero emissions. Such as sports, social life, food, hobbies, games, computing, reading, TV, radio, volunteering and sleep! The report stated, “We could all do more of this without any impact on emissions”.
In fact, with the destruction of the economy and industry, most of us will have more time to pursue these goals! (Climate scientists and bureaucrats are naturally excluded).
Nowhere in this depressing little report is there an acknowledgment that the UK only accounts for 1% of global emissions. The report first states:
We must cut greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050: this is what climate scientists tell us, this is what social protesters are demanding, and this is now the law in the UK.
Destroying the economy just because some eco-loon protesters demand it is not our business. Of course, laws can be changed.
However, we must thank the authors of this report for making us realize that frantic decarbonization efforts will have a very real and devastating impact on people’s lives.
And, as they rightly point out, these changes must begin to be put into practice very soon, certainly within this decade.
The impacts and costs of the Climate Change Bill have long been deliberately hidden from the public. This is partly the result of political machinations between all the major parties and the establishment as a whole. It was also aided and abetted by all the media, with some notable exceptions.
But their dirty little secret can't stay hidden for much longer.
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