Human-caused climate change has increased the wind speeds of recent Atlantic hurricanes, making them more destructive and costly, according to two scientific reports released today.
The study, “Anthropogenic ocean warming exacerbates recent hurricanes,” published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate, found that between 2019 and 2023, Atlantic hurricanes' maximum sustained wind speeds increased by 19 mph due to human activity ( 31 km/h).
A parallel report from Climate Central, a nonprofit scientific research organization, applied techniques developed in environmental research papers to the 2024 hurricane season and found that climate change increased the maximum wind speeds of all 11 Atlantic hurricanes in 2024, thereby increasing their maximum duration. Wind speeds increase by 9 to 28 mph (14-45 km/h).
The increase in wind speeds moved seven of the hurricanes into the higher Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind category, and upgraded Hurricanes Debbie and Oscar from tropical storms to hurricanes. The report found that without human-induced increases in ocean temperatures, Hurricanes Beryl and Milton would have been Category 4 storms, but the additional human-caused warming increased wind speeds by 18 mph (29 kph) and 23 mph, respectively. / hour (37 km/h), respectively, to upgrade it to Category 5 intensity.
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“Every hurricane in 2024 will be stronger than it was 100 years ago,” said Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central and lead author of the new study. “Human carbon Pollution is exacerbating hurricane disasters in our communities.”
Hurricane wind force is increased by 10% and damage caused is doubled.
Rather than running detailed, high-resolution models of each hurricane to study how they would change with or without human-caused ocean warming, the study used “potential intensity” theory to estimate how climate change would affect hurricanes. Potential intensity theory was pioneered in 1987 by MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel, who theorized that for every 1 degree Celsius (1.8°F) increase in tropical ocean temperatures, hurricane wind speeds An increase of about 5% is expected, assuming no change in average wind speeds near the tropical ocean surface. Computer models found slightly smaller increases (4%).
A report released in October 2024 by the international scientific organization World Weather Attribution showed that Hurricane Milton's winds had increased by about 10% due to human-caused climate change. Researchers at Imperial College London separately determined that climate change increased the wind speeds of Hurricane Helene by about 13 mph (or 11%) and Milton by nearly 11 mph (or 10%) when it made landfall.
While a 10% increase in hurricane winds due to climate change may not sound like a big deal, it is significant because hurricane damage increases exponentially with wind speed. For example, a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (161 km/h) can cause 10 times the damage of a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph (121 km/h), according to NOAA. This includes not only damage from wind, but also damage from storm surge, inland flooding and tornadoes. Bottom line: A 10% increase in wind power roughly doubles hurricane damage (Figure 2).
Using previously published damage functions and global asset exposure value data, the researchers determined that 44% of the economic losses caused by Helen and 45% of the economic losses caused by Milton were attributable to climate change. They added that the analysis “likely underestimates the true cost of hurricanes because it does not take into account long-term economic impacts, such as lost productivity and worsening health conditions.”
In an interview with CNN, Jim Kossin, a retired hurricane expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said: “I think this paper is a good way to estimate the impact of multiple man-made hurricanes on hurricanes. [human-caused] “These factors increase hurricane intensity in the Atlantic, but I don't think these estimates are predictive into the future,” because ocean temperatures are affected by factors other than carbon pollution, and the effects of temperature changes on hurricanes may vary depending on the environment. future.
Where's Sarah?
The new study focuses on ocean warming associated with climate change, which could make hurricanes more powerful. But sometimes potential hurricanes don't develop at all because other factors prevent them from taking advantage of those waters warmed by climate change. That was the case with Tropical Storm Sala, which dropped more than 90 inches of rain in one location in Honduras in early November and killed at least seven people. Forecast models days ahead showed that Sara had the potential to become a major hurricane due to unusually warm waters in the Caribbean. However, the turmoil that gave birth to Sarah ended up approaching land sooner than initially expected. The resulting land interactions prevented Sara from developing the structure, which could otherwise harness record-warming waters and cause truly devastating hurricanes.
Bob Henson contributed to this article.
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