Will climate change really shorten our lifespans significantly? » Yale Climate Connection

A reader asked us:

Will climate change really shorten our lifespans significantly? I read that by 2030, humans may face extinction due to lack of water and temperatures will become unbearable..

We asked YCC Spanish writer Johani Ponce to answer this question. This is your answer.

The Yale Center on Climate Change and Health stated that climate change is the greatest public health challenge of the 21st century and is closely related to life expectancy. The impacts of climate change on human health, both current and projected, will increase morbidity and mortality from heat waves, droughts, floods, forest fires and other natural disasters, reduce life expectancy and create mental health problems for affected populations. In addition, climate change is associated with increased incidence of diseases borne by food, water, and vectors (animals such as disease-carrying mosquitoes), as well as increased food insecurity and malnutrition, negatively affecting health and thus lifespan.

Violent conflicts over competition for scarce resources and the displacement of people due to rising sea levels or economic deprivation are also adding pressure on global health, leading to shorter life expectancy. However, by addressing climate change, opportunities arise to improve public health. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to plant-based agriculture (including consuming more plant-based foods and less meat to reduce pollution), and improving active transportation infrastructure (such as walking and cycling) can not only mitigate climate change; Provides significant health benefits and helps extend life.

There is no doubt that climate change is one of the greatest challenges we face this century. However, despite the seriousness of the situation, the most catastrophic prediction – that humans will become extinct by 2030 – is at odds with scientific consensus. Climate scientists, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), point out that although global warming will have serious consequences, humanity is not expected to disappear as a result. The recent IPCC report, which brought together hundreds of experts on the subject, assessed different possible scenarios, all of which pose serious risks, but extinction is not one of them.

Adam Schlosser, deputy director of the Joint Program on Global Change Science and Policy at MIT, said the likelihood of human extinction due to climate change is “very low, if not non-existent.” However, he warned that the consequences for some areas could be devastating. For example, island nations face threats from rising sea levels, which could force them to relocate and pose an existential threat to their people.

The IPCC report classifies future climate scenarios based on the amount of greenhouse gases we continue to emit. The most severe scenario, RCP8.5, predicts extreme warming and catastrophic consequences, while the most manageable, RCP2.6, predicts a less severe future. Fortunately, Schlosser noted, the world appears to be moving from the most extreme scenarios, such as RCP8.5, to intermediate outcomes, such as RCP6.0, thanks to advances in clean energy and emissions reductions.

Still, there are significant risks in the intermediate scenario. The IPCC warns that the impacts of climate change have exceeded expectations, with more intense storms, heat waves and more severe droughts occurring. The poorest and most vulnerable regions have the least impact from climate change but face the most severe consequences. Communities that lack adaptation resources are most at risk from climate impacts.

Schlosser believes that the real existential risk does not fall on all of humanity, but on the most vulnerable, who are ill-equipped to adapt to these disasters. Rich countries will be able to devote more resources to combating the impacts of climate change, while low-income countries will find their efforts to improve the quality of life of their residents diverted towards climate adaptation, thereby affecting progress in reducing extreme poverty.

Climate change is not the only existential threat facing humanity. Factors such as nuclear war or a global pandemic also pose considerable risks. However, Schlosser understands why some people use alarmist language when referring to climate change: They are trying to attract public attention, even though the message may be distorted.

Climate change does not mean the extinction of humanity, but it does pose an urgent threat to millions of people, especially the most vulnerable. The real question is not whether humanity will survive, but how many lives and communities will see their livelihoods and ways of survival collapse. The answer depends on the decisions we make today and our ability to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.