Jonathan Lesser
According to a recent publication in dialogueInstalling millions of batteries distributed across the grid, coupled with wind and solar power, in homes, businesses and local communities could avoid investment in new transmission infrastructure. But unless these batteries are installed while physically disconnected from the grid, or consumers are willing to give up reliable power, this argument is another example of power's “magical thinking.”
Residential and industrial electricity customers need to be aware of this illusion of home battery storage.
First, batteries store electricity; they don't generate it. But measures to electrify U.S. vehicles, as well as space electrification and water heating, will double electricity consumption. While some of the additional power needed may come from distributed sources such as rooftop solar, green energy advocates claim that much of the power needed will be generated by large wind and solar facilities far from towns.
The article also claimed, “[w]If we store more solar and wind energy for later use, we can use fewer transmission lines. But delivering the extra power needed will require building new transmission lines, no matter how much battery storage is installed in homes and local communities. In addition, the local electrical distribution system (poles and wires on the streets) must be upgraded to handle the additional load.
Second, building enough battery capacity (not to mention the cost of additional wind and solar generation) to ensure that households and local communities do not suffer the effects of prolonged power outages would be prohibitive.
Numbers tell stories.
In the United States, a typical residential household consumes approximately 10,800 kWh per year, or approximately 30 kWh per day. Of course, the amount will vary depending on the size of the home, the region of the country and the season of the year. With the development of electrification and hydrothermal, some areas of the country with peak summer electricity demand will experience peak demand in winter, and winter demand will surge further in areas with existing winter peaks.
According to a U.S. Department of Energy model, a typical home's heat pump consumes about 5,500 kilowatt hours per year. This alone means a 50% increase in electricity usage. Charging a typical electric vehicle can add an additional 4,300 kWh of electricity per year. Collectively, these will increase consumption by nearly 10,000 kWh per year, roughly doubling current consumption to about 60 kWh per day, although the increase will be greatest in winter when heating loads peak.
Providing additional power while ensuring the same level of service reliability (i.e. not experiencing long blackouts or limiting consumer access due to insufficient supply) will require sufficient battery storage to provide at night and during multi-day periods when power supply is insufficient electricity. Although the article recommends using the consumer's electric vehicle to provide power, few consumers want to wake up to find that their electric vehicle is uncharged and unable to travel, especially if there is no stored electricity to charge the electric vehicle.
Using average U.S. consumption, if the existing local distribution system can meet today's average load of 30 kWh/day, then sufficient battery storage must be built to supply the remaining 30 kWh. What's more, there's the peak power demand from electric heat pumps and electric vehicle chargers. For example, a typical Level 2 home electric vehicle charger consumes 20 kilowatts (kW) of electricity. The heat pump can consume 7 kW of power.
The largest Tesla Powerwall is designed for home use, providing up to 11.5 kW of power and 13.5 kWh of storage under ideal conditions. (As temperatures drop, so do battery capacity and efficiency.) Therefore, at least three Powerwall units are needed to provide a typical home with enough power to supplement existing grid capacity. For 1 million homes, this means 3 million Powerwall units providing up to 40.5 million kWh (40,500 MWh) of battery storage.
Installation costs approximately $12,000, which equates to a cost per home of $36,000. The United States has more than 80 million single-family homes and more than 130 million residential units. Therefore, 240 million Powerwalls would be needed for single-family homes alone, costing nearly $3 trillion. By comparison, Tesla's current production capacity is 700,000 vehicles per year. Therefore, equipping all single-family homes with them would require nearly 350 years of Powerwall production. Mineral demand will also be staggering, with billions of tons of ore needing to be mined to obtain the necessary lithium, copper, cobalt and other metals.
In theory, power systems could be designed to provide reliable service using wind, solar and battery storage. But in reality, no matter how many batteries are installed, new transmission and distribution lines still require huge investment. It would also be extremely expensive.
It may be fashionable to ignore physical and economic realities, but in the long run, reality always wins. The grid and its components make up a complex system that most of us take for granted, leading to misleading claims about the simplicity of electrifying everything and powering it almost entirely with wind, solar and batteries. Utilities and planners can help provide public services by explaining why this is not possible with today's technology.
Jonathan Lesser is a senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analysis, a senior fellow at the Discovery Institute, and president of Continental Economics.
This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and provided via RealClearWire.
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