from climaterealism
Author: Linny Luken
The South China Morning Post recently published an article titled “Climate change may have played a role in the region's record number of super typhoons, Hong Kong meteorologist says,” claiming that climate change “may” have caused the record number of typhoons. Super typhoon year. The title is misleading, with the word “maybe” carrying a heavy weight. The claims made in the article itself are neither more cautious nor less alarmist. Although conditions have been favorable for typhoon formation this year, trends derived from long-term data show no evidence that tropical cyclones are becoming more common or intense.
In 2024, there will be 25 named tropical storms in the northwest Pacific, including 8 super typhoons (equivalent to Category 4 or 5 hurricanes).
According to the South China Morning Post, the former director of the Hong Kong Meteorological Bureau's “Observatory” wrote on social media that “increasing seawater temperatures are conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.” This is “also the first time” that four cyclones occurred simultaneously in the northwest Pacific in November. A tropical cyclone.
While warm ocean waters are indeed a known factor in the formation of tropical cyclones, they are only one of them. Other factors such as wind shear must also be suitable for the formation of severe storms, and interestingly, the South China Morning Post article acknowledged this when quoting another Observatory scientist, Liang Yongwu. The South China Morning Post explains, “Global warming is just [a] Factors leading to the formation of tropical cyclones.
Liang said that the sea surface temperature will be higher in 2023, but there will not be as many typhoons, “[t]This explains why sea surface temperature is not the only factor. The South China Morning Post went on to list wind circulation and vertical wind shear as factors. Neither Leung nor the South China Morning Post attempted to link these conditions to climate change.
Addressing rising sea surface temperatures; while there is evidence that sea surface temperatures may be gradually rising, ocean temperatures may have only increased by about 0.7°C since 1880, according to the National Center for Environmental Information and reported in Climate Overview: Oceans Temperature” is described. According to the South China Morning Post, abnormal temperatures in the North Pacific this year were a full degree above normal. This is far beyond the average warming of just a few tenths of a degree per year, with the peak likely to be the ongoing impact of the natural El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has been in a warm phase since 2023, although it has started cooling recently.
Regarding the formation of tropical cyclones, data compiled by meteorologist Ryan Maue show that the frequency of major hurricanes around the world has declined slightly since the 1990s, and even this year the frequency has been fairly average despite warm waters. (see picture below)
Although compared to some media reports to which we responded climate realism The South China Morning Post article is relatively balanced, and it is unreasonable to link above-average sea surface temperatures and the number of supercyclones in a single region in a single year to climate change. There are many factors that influence sea surface temperatures and the formation and intensity of typhoons, but none of these factors are on the rise during the recent period of mild warming.
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