As renewable energy rises, the world may be approaching a climate tipping point » Yale Climate Connection

Climate pollution from burning fossil fuels reached a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, an increase of 0.8% from the previous year, dashing hopes that global emissions could peak this year.

That's according to the latest annual global carbon budget, which highlights a deeper challenge: the world's continued reliance on coal, oil and gas, which will continue to increase emissions and damage the climate. The report, organized by a global coalition of scientists centered at the University of Exeter, paints a complex picture of global energy trends, with disturbing growth in some areas and signs of progress in others.

Emissions in most rich countries have fallen this year, although in many cases the declines have been relatively small. At the same time, climate pollution has increased in most developing economies, driven by economic growth and rising energy demand. Global consumption of coal, oil and natural gas all increased, but the growth rate of coal and oil was less than 1%.

While global emissions have yet to reach a clear “peak”—the point at which carbon pollution stops rising and eventually switches to a sustained decline—there are signs that this turning point may be coming. The rapid deployment of clean technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs) may help accelerate this transition, although faster progress is needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

These global trends have urgent consequences for our climate, economy and ecosystems. To understand what's behind this year's record highs and what they signal for the future, let's explore the key factors shaping today's climate pollution.

China’s climate emissions have reached peak

Given China's status as the world's largest emitter, understanding its emissions trajectory is key to assessing global climate progress. China's climate pollution more than tripled between 2000 and 2023. In 2023, the country's emissions increased by nearly 5%. But this year they have remained almost unchanged, rising an estimated 0.2%.

Much of China's explosive growth in emissions since the turn of the century stems from the rapid expansion of coal power, which was built to meet the energy needs of the country's rapidly growing economy. But in recent years, clean energy has become the dominant source of new power generation in China, so coal emissions will only increase by 0.3% by 2024.

Currently, more than half of new cars sold in China are pure electric or plug-in hybrids. The Global Carbon Budget estimates that the country's oil consumption will fall by 0.8% in 2024, with continued declines expected as the transition to electric mobility continues.

Other industry trends are at play here, too. Real estate construction activity in China has been shrinking due to a glut of unsold homes and unfinished projects. Therefore, climate pollution caused by China's cement production will be significantly reduced by 8.1% by 2024. of gas. But Chinese solar and wind energy production is growing much faster than natural gas generation, and China's clean energy supplies may soon be enough to meet the country's electricity needs and curb demand for more natural gas.

Taken together, the evidence suggests that climate pollution in China may peak this year and is expected to decline in the near future. Given that China is the world's second most populous country and has the highest total emissions, this is a positive sign for efforts to curb global climate pollution.

Other rich countries have also made some progress

While China stands out the most, climate pollution fell in most other wealthy developed countries in 2024, although often less than the year before.

The EU has managed to curb climate pollution by about 3.8%, although this is lower than the 8.4% decline expected in 2023. disuse. Despite this, European natural gas consumption will still fall by 1.3% in 2024.

In the United States, climate pollution fell by about 0.6%. Coal consumption continued its long-term decline, and sales of electric vehicles drove oil consumption down 0.7%. However, despite the continued deployment of clean power generation, U.S. natural gas consumption will still grow by about 1% in 2024.

Why? After more than a decade of stable total electricity consumption, U.S. electricity demand is currently growing, driven primarily by the electrification of vehicles and buildings, as well as the growth of data centers, artificial intelligence, and cryptocurrency mining. The deployment of solar, wind and nuclear power is only sufficient to meet some of this growing demand, so the use of natural gas has increased slightly to meet the rest, while the retirement of some coal-fired power plants has also been delayed.

In other examples from other rich countries, Canada and Australia have seen climate pollution fall by a few tenths of a percent. While Australia's coal and natural gas consumption has shrunk significantly due to the rapid growth of renewable energy, its oil use has increased as electric vehicle sales have declined this year. In neighboring New Zealand, climate pollution fell by nearly 5% as coal and oil use declined.

It's a similar story in Japan and South Korea, where emissions will fall by 4% by 2024 as consumption of all fossil fuels falls. 3%.

Developing countries need help curbing climate pollution

Emissions have increased in India and other parts of the world due to increased consumption of all fossil fuels. This is the norm in developing countries, where energy needs increase as economies grow and more citizens escape poverty.

So far, most of the increased demand has been met by burning fossil fuels, but that doesn't have to be the case. Many developing countries would rather skip fossil fuels and meet their growing needs with clean energy. But this requires international investment, which has historically been lacking.

This was one of the key issues at the recent 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan. An independent expert panel on climate finance recommended that annual international climate finance reach $1 trillion by 2030, with about $300 billion provided by governments and supplemented by public and private financing. The agreement reached by the countries involved in CO29 is close to achieving these recommendations. But it remains to be seen whether the promised funds will be delivered – much of it is expected to be raised through private financing – a move many developing countries are deeply unhappy about.

Nature’s role in absorbing climate pollution

While human activities continue to drive increases in global emissions, nature also plays a vital role in offsetting some of these impacts. Consistent with previous years, Earth's soils and plants will have absorbed about a quarter of human climate pollution by 2024, with oceans absorbing nearly 30%. The remaining 45% is added to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

This amount of natural carbon removal is reassuring because by 2023, Earth's soils and plants were absorbing unusually small amounts of carbon, leading some to speculate that nature's carbon sinks may be failing. Rather, this appears to be a temporary result of last year's major El Niño event, which tends to cause droughts that reduce the biosphere's short-term carbon uptake.

Measures to reduce deforestation and expand forest areas have also had some success over the past decade. Although deforestation remains a problem in Brazil, Indonesia and Congo, global deforestation rates in recent years have been half what they were a decade ago.

But widespread wildfires this year, particularly in the Amazon, are causing climate change, hampering the total amount of climate pollution that can be naturally absorbed by 2024. capabilities will be affected.

A turning point for global climate pollution?

While global emissions trends illustrate the challenges we face, there are signs that humanity may be approaching a peak in global climate pollution. Emissions have been falling in rich countries, but these efforts must be accelerated, and financial support for developing countries is crucial to help them transition to clean energy solutions.

China’s shift in emissions growth offers some hope for the climate future, showing that even the largest emitters can make meaningful progress by taking bold action today.