yesterday, washington post Published a popular article about Energy Secretary nominee Chris Wright. Post Questioning Wright's claims:
“[R]Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) actually show no increase in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes.
Post Claims Wright misrepresented the latest IPCC assessment report. [emphasis, links added]
But rather than citing the IPCC itself to show where Wright might have gone wrong, washington post Instead, rely on the description of a contributor to the IPCC (emphasize):
“he [Wright] obvious distortion [the IPCC] report,” said [Jim] Kossin said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report shows that climate warming is making storms more intense. “It's very easy to prove it. Everything is black and white. no gray area”.
let us do what Post No, look at the actual conclusions of the IPCC on tropical cyclone trends:
“Most reported long-term (decades to centuries) trends based on TC frequency or intensity indicators have low confidence…”.
It sounds like there might be some gray areas, doesn't it?
So does Kerry Emanuel of MIT, who is more bullish on human influence on tropical cyclones than the IPCC or most of his peers, but admits that current understanding is far from black and white:
“Currently, there is no scientific consensus on global or regional trends. [tropical cyclone] Activity, either in the past, as detected in observations or climate model simulations, or in the future, as our climate continues to change.
Post's The report reminds us that there is a lot of misinformation related to climate, especially hurricanes.
and washington post Curious non-experts may have a hard time knowing what's going on, since the authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are apparently willing to distort the IPCC's conclusions about hurricanes for political purposes.
Today, I share a series of data summarizing the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, with a focus on hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States.
Given how polluted the information environment around climate is, I encourage you to examine and question this data. Unfortunately, in 2024, relying on “what scientists say” is not a particularly reliable way to learn the truth.
Season summary
The graph and table above show overall statistics for overall seasonal activity. By all indicators, From a historical perspective, 2024 is a very active season – ranking 12th over the past 74 years, or the 85th percentile.
There were 5 hurricane landfalls in the continental United States: 2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ = Helen and Milton) and 3 minor hurricanes (Category 1 and 2 = Beryl, Debbie, and Francine).
Based on ongoing work (along with the inestimable Jessica Winkle), we estimate These five storms caused an estimated $89 billion in direct economic losses to the continental United Statesexcluding inland flood losses – following the approach of our 2018 paper on standardized hurricane losses, which we are currently updating to 2024 for submission to a peer-reviewed journal.
In terms of human impacts beyond economics, Inland flooding in 2024 was particularly deadly, with storms killing about 400 people, especially Hurricane Helene in the Appalachian Mountains.
This is the highest number of storm-related deaths since 2005 and Hurricane Katrina. About 20 years ago, we published a paper arguing that inland flooding from hurricanes was an underestimated threat.
Landing trends in the continental United States since 1900
The chart above shows the long-term trend of hurricane landfalls in the continental United States.
There have been a number of major hurricane landfalls over the past eight years. For eight years before that, nothing happened.
Has been around since 1900 There is no trend in either variable.
North Atlantic and global storm intensity trends
The picture above shows ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] Every hurricane in the North Atlantic since 1900. According to this indicator, North Atlantic hurricanes overall have not become more intense since 1900.
The chart above shows the same variable – ACE per hurricane – globally, and shows no trends since 1980 (the first year provided by CSU, based on previous data quality issues).
Note that while the North Atlantic was active in 2024, much of the rest of the world experienced a relatively inactive year by recent historical standards.
But what if you really, really want to show off a shocking upward trend? Here's what you do: Using ACE, determine the period during the last 125 years when North Atlantic hurricane activity was least active. That happened to be 1970 to 1979.
Then, trend analysis for 1970 begins.
The Honest Broker is written by climate expert Roger Pielke Jr. and is reader-supported. If you value what you read here, please consider subscribing and supporting the work.
Roger Pielke Jr. has been a professor at the University of Colorado since 2001. He holds degrees in mathematics, public policy, and political science, and is author of many books. (Amazon).
Read the break from The Honest Broker
