A recent article published by The Conversation (TC) titled “COP29: Climate change could kill millions, world leaders must work to limit deaths” warns that climate change could kill millions. This is wrong. [emphasis, links added]
A critical review of empirical data reveals the opposite: Deaths from extreme weather events have decreased significantly over the past century, despite increases in greenhouse gas emissions.
Historical data outlined in the Climate Overview show that deaths from extreme weather have fallen significantly.
In the 1920s, such events killed approximately 485,000 people annually. By 2020, this number had dropped significantly to approximately 7,790 deaths per year, A reduction of more than 98%.
This sharp decline occurred during a period of significant global industrialization and rising greenhouse gas emissions, rejecting claims that climate change is causing increased mortality.
According to this article from the Associated Press, The reduction in weather-related deaths is largely due to improved preparedness, warning systems and increased resilience.
The United Nations, for example, highlights that better disaster management practices have resulted in fewer deaths, despite an increase in the frequency and intensity of some weather events.
Countries such as India and Bangladesh have taken effective measures to significantly reduce the number of deaths caused by cyclones and other extreme weather events.
The Dui Hua’s claim that “climate change could kill millions of people” lacks empirical basis. While it is critical to acknowledge and address the potential impacts of climate change, Projections that lead to alarmist conclusions often rely on worst-case climate model scenarios and fail to take into account human adaptability and technological progress.
This narrative can create unnecessary fear and can divert attention from actual solutions that have been proven to work.
It is also important to consider Historically, cold-related deaths have exceeded heat-related deathsas shown in the figure below.
Research shows that cold-related deaths significantly outnumber heat-related deaths, almost 10 to 1.
As global temperatures rise slightly, fewer cold-related deaths result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality.
Research published in The Lancet, Southern Journal of Medicine, the Centers for Disease Control and the National Health Statistics Report confirms this: cold, not heat, is the biggest temperature-related killer.
These studies also suggest that the mild warming we've seen over the past century has reduced overall mortality associated with extreme temperatures. If the planet continues to warm modestly, this positive trend should continue.
Extreme weather can be deadly and the potential risks associated with it should not be ignored.
However, contrary to what the Conversation article implies, the evidence is clear: Extreme weather has not increased during the current climate change period, and the data clearly shows that deaths from extreme weather events and unsuitable temperatures have fallen significantly.
It is crucial to place the discussion in the context of empirical evidence and historical context. The motto of the dialogue is “academic rigor, journalistic talent.”
In this article’s coverage of climate change, The Conversation betrays the first part of its motto. Readers of The Conversation would be better served if the publication relied on facts to present its work on climate change, rather than shocking fantasy.
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