The continental United States still recorded its warmest fall in 130 years, although the extremely dry and hot fall eased slightly in November, NOAA reported Monday.
The United States also experienced its hottest January-November period on record, making 2024 likely to be the hottest year in U.S. history.
Last month was the sixth warmest November in the United States since 1895, behind only the second-warmest September and the second-warmest October. The average temperature for the three months combined, or fall weather, was 57.62 degrees Fahrenheit, just 0.04 degrees higher than the previous record holder in the fall of 2016 (see Figure 1 below). All other autumns on record have been at least 0.75 degrees cooler than these two.
In the fall of 2024, warm weather will be unusually common across the United States. With the exception of Oregon, most of the Lower 48 states ranked in the top 10 for fall temperatures. Six states—Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Texas, and Wisconsin—had their warmest autumns on record (see Figure 2 below).
The continued warmth continues into November in many areas before more seasonal cold fronts begin to bring temperatures closer to average towards the end of the month. Even so, Alabama, Maine, Mississippi and Louisiana all experienced their warmest Novembers on record, while every state east of the Mississippi River experienced their warmest Octobers on record.
Looking at the all-time highs and all-time lows also provides a vivid picture of the hot weather in the United States in the fall of 2024. During the three months of the fall, an average of 9,228 daily all-time highs were broken (not just tied) in the contiguous United States, while an average of 1,081 daily all-time lows were broken – a ratio of more than eight to one throughout the fall. The ratio is even more severe when compared to historical monthly records: 364 monthly highs versus 8 monthly lows. In other words, every monthly record low corresponds to 45.5 monthly record highs!
Fast-worsening U.S. drought abates slightly in November
As we noted in last month's roundup, the start of fall has been accompanied by surprisingly sunny, mild weather nearly everywhere except for the Southeast, which was ravaged by Hurricane Milton (especially Helen). The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor shows that 87.78% of the contiguous United States is experiencing drought or at least abnormal drought, according to data through Nov. 5. This is the highest weekly percentage in the 25-year history of the Drought Monitor (previous record: 85.28% on 1 November 2022) and a significant increase from the 70.65% drought/drought coverage reported on 1 October.
That week marked the peak of this fall's drought, and since then beneficial rain and mountain snow have arrived in many areas of the contiguous United States, especially in central parts of the country. In fact, last month was the 17th wettest November in the 130-year history of records. Oklahoma had its wettest November on record, while Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska had their wettest Octobers (see Figure 3).
According to data as of December 3 (see Figure 4 below), the Drought Monitor shows that coverage of drought and abnormal drought in the contiguous United States has dropped to 71.48%. Even so, 43.64% of the Lower 48 states are in drought (levels D1 to D4), which is down from the peak of 54.08% in late October, but still a troubling range. According to the Washington Post, 49 U.S. states (all but Alaska) have areas of at least moderate drought. Much of the northern High Plains and parts of the Southwest, as well as much of the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to Boston remain affected by severe to extreme drought.
In November, a two-acre brush fire broke out in Brooklyn's Prospect Park, causing about $275,000 in damage, in an eerie example of the effects of a long drought on a lush landscape. New York's Central Park received only trace amounts of moisture in December, just weeks after one of the city's longest periods of rain-free or snow-free weather on record (from September 30 to October 28). The precipitation total through December 7 was 5.04 inches – the lowest in Central Park's 155-year record-keeping history, below the previous record of 5.22 inches set in 1909.
Will this be the hottest year in U.S. history?
Although the first 11 months of 2024 are the hottest on record in the contiguous United States, temperatures this year are still likely to be well below the current full-year record holder in 2012. This is the hottest December yet, and so far this month, colder temperatures in the east have roughly balanced warmer temperatures in the west. Another strong cold snap will sweep across the eastern United States later this week, but generally above-average air is expected to return next week.
Jeff Masters contributed to this article.
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