From the Daily Skeptic
Chris Morrison
last month, daily skeptic The Met Office's practice of inventing temperature averages based on more than 100 non-existent measuring stations was highlighted. Helpfully, the Met Office even provides the coordinates, elevations and uses of these hypothetical locations. With widespread attention and frequent retweets on social media daily skeptic In the article, the Met Office revised its ridiculous statement. Needless to say, this move has not yet been announced publicly as drawing attention to this would open a Pandora's box and risk subjecting all Met Office temperature statements to wider scrutiny. Instead, the Met Office has cautiously renamed its “UK climate averages” page to “site-specific long-term averages”.
The new page features significant changes, no doubt aimed at dispelling suspicions that the Met Office has fudged the figures. Initial suggestions were that climate stations were selected to provide 30-year averages from 1991 to 2020, but this has now been replaced by the explanation that the page “is intended to show locations that provide geographical coverage of the UK, but it does not reflect conditions at each climate station”. Existing weather station or current Meteorological Bureau observation network”. Under the new page, these locations are still referred to as “climate stations,” but location details have been omitted.
Cynics may note that the Met Office has addressed the issue of inventing data from sites that did not exist, suggesting that the data now comes from “locations” that may or may not have any relation to sites that once existed Any relationship, or indeed exists today. If this is a reasonable explanation for the incident, it may indicate that the incident is far from over.
Our thanks again to diligent citizen journalist Ray Sanders, who brought the unannounced changes to the Met Office to our attention and provided a link to the previous averages page on the Wayback Machine. Saunders, who has been investigating the case for some time, discovered that the three named stations near where he lived – Dungeness, Folkestone and Dover – did not exist. Dover's claimed coordinates place the station in the water at a local beach, as shown in the Google Earth photo below.
As a result, Saunders discovered from freedom of information requests that 103 of the 302 sites marked in the climate average inventory – more than a third of the total – no longer exist. Saunders then sought more information about methods of providing figures for Folkestone and Dover. In its response, the Met Office said it was unable to provide details of the requested observing locations “as this is not recorded information”. However, it does reveal that for sites that don't exist, “we use regression analysis to create a model of the relationship between each site and other sites in the network.” This produces estimates for each month when the station is not operating. Each “estimate” is said to be based on data from six other sites, chosen because they are “highly correlated” with the target site.
As far as Dover is concerned, the nearest “station” is 7 miles away in non-existent Folkestone, followed by Manston 15 miles away. By “well correlated” the Met Office may mean they are in the same county of Kent. Either way, computer models are ready to show you the way.
Ray Sanders has sent details of his findings to new Labor science minister Peter Kyle MP, while recent Met Office changes may have been driven by a cautious political push . At the time, Sanders asked: “How could any reasonable observer know that these data were not real and were simply 'made up' by government agencies?” He called for public statements about possible inaccuracies in existing published data. , “to avoid other institutions and researchers using unreliable data and drawing erroneous conclusions.”
The Met Office also runs a historical profile section which identifies a number of sites with long term temperature records. The Lowestoft plant closed in 2010 and figures since then have been estimates. Stations in Nairndruym, Paisley and Newton Rigg are also closed but are still reporting estimated monthly figures. “Why would any scientific organization feel the need to publish what can only be described as fiction?” Sanders asked.
The original Braemar station in Aberdeenshire has recorded temperature data since Victorian times. Due to its interesting topography surrounded by high mountains, it recorded the UK's coldest temperature of -27.2°C in both 1895 and 1982. In 2005, a new site was built some distance from the original site, following the Met Office procedure, and was labeled Braemar 2 to reflect the distance and climate difference. In the historical data section of the Met Office website, it is shown that Braemar 2 provides data dating back to 1959. A false merger of sets “that is not representative of any one site,” Sanders observed.
Recent changes made by the Met Office to its climate averages page show that the state-funded agency is fully aware of the growing interest in its entire temperature-recording business. This interest continues to grow as the Met Office is fully committed to using its data to promote the political fantasy of net zero. But it has remained silent on the biggest issue raised recently, namely the increase in temperatures, accurate to one hundredth of a degree Celsius, according to a national network in which nearly eight in 10 sites are so poorly placed that they This is not achievable internationally – the recognized “uncertainty” is as high as 5°C.
Chris Morrison is daily skepticenvironment editor.
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