Article by Eric Worrell
I thought science should be falsifiable?
December 10, 2024 | Elaina Hancock – University of Connecticut Communications
climate change extinction risk
Integrated global analysis of climate change extinction risks highlights we are at a critical moment requiring drastic action
The impacts of climate change are intensifying and, according to the latest United Nations Emissions Gap Report, significant action is needed if we are to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The climate crisis severely threatens global biodiversity, and effective conservation policies and efforts to mitigate catastrophic consequences rely on accurate models and predictions. To improve the certainty of available models, Mark Urban, a professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut, analyzed 485 studies, including more than 5 million predictions, to create a global assessment of climate change extinctions. The research was published in the journal Science. Urban met with UConn Today to discuss his findings.
…
Learn more: https://today.uconn.edu/2024/12/climate-change-extinction-risk/#
What did you find?
While past assessments have shown high uncertainty, this analysis increasingly shows with certainty that climate change has caused and will cause global extinctions. The risk of global extinction due to climate change is accelerating, rising from the current 2% to 30% under the highest emissions scenario. Current policies and actions make it possible for global temperatures to rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius, but this would still put 5% of species at risk. This study offers policymakers a choice: Do we limit emissions now and protect just 2 percent of endangered species, or do we choose another path that fundamentally changes the nature of the world.
Can you discuss the extinction debt and how the Earth’s hidden biodiversity impacts extinction risk assessments?
Extinction risk estimates show how many species there are Can eventually become extinct at some point in the future. The analogy I like to use is that of a kettle with a crack. We know the water will eventually flow out, but we don't know exactly when. Extinction debt is a characteristic of all those species that are heading toward extinction (losing water) and will eventually become extinct without intervention. The bad news is that many species may be in decline or about to decline due to the effects of climate change, but we don't yet recognize these threats. The good news is that we can still mitigate climate change or deploy successful conservation measures to ensure the debt is not repaid.
…
Learn more: https://today.uconn.edu/2024/12/climate-change-extinction-risk/#
reference research;
Climate change causes species extinction
Mark C. Urban
science
December 5, 2024
Volume 386, Issue 6726
Pages 1123-1128Editorial summary
Because human activity is clearly changing the global climate, researchers have been studying its potential impacts and predicting climate decline and extinction. Understanding the consequences on a global scale requires the synthesis of many studies. Following initial efforts nearly a decade ago, Urban found that we can more confidently expect that rising temperatures will lead to an increase in extinctions, with the highest emissions scenario leading to the extinction of nearly a third of the planet's species, particularly those from specific vulnerable taxa or areas. ——Sasha Vigneri
abstract
Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes in biodiversity, but forecasting these risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million predictions to provide a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increasing certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinction will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest emissions scenario would threaten about one-third of the world's species. Amphibians; species from mountainous, island and freshwater ecosystems; species living in South America, Australia and New Zealand face the greatest threats. Since 1970, climate change is predicted to be responsible for an increasing proportion of species extinctions observed globally. In addition to limiting greenhouse gas emissions, identifying species to protect first is critical to protecting biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.
Learn more: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp4461
Ancient evidence does not support the hypothesis that rising temperatures create unfavorable conditions for life.
Our monkey ancestors also thrived in a hotter world. The hottest period of the Paleocene-Eocene epoch was 5-8 degrees Celsius higher than today. It was the age of monkeys. Our monkey ancestors thrived on abundant greenhouse PETM and colonized much of the world, retreating only when severe cold drove them from their new homes.
There is also plenty of evidence that rising modern carbon dioxide levels are good for the biosphere.
Let’s not forget the coral reefs.
Clearly, setting a timetable for predictions of mass extinction is unwise in the face of overwhelming evidence that the biosphere is functioning well, deserts are shrinking, and warmer conditions and rising carbon dioxide levels are conducive to life. Without a timetable, predicting that 30% of species will one day die is about as safe as scientific prediction.
Relevant
