A lesson in insight – what do you think about this?

Over the past two years, headlines, policy statements and social media have been filled with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every rise in the chart is seen as irrefutable evidence that humanity is heading toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offers little room for nuance, and as usual, the loudest voices declare that the end is near. But a recent tweet from Javier Viños, backed up by a chart of global sea surface temperatures (SST), reminds us that the climate “emergency” can occur even in the face of the faintest signs of natural change Disappears quickly.

Vinos' tweets are known for their brevity and restraint. For the first time in 21 months, global ocean temperatures have returned to levels last seen nine years ago in December 2015. Let's understand this for a moment. After two years of being bombarded with claims that the Earth's oceans are on an inexorable trajectory to warming, we find ourselves… back where we were nearly a decade ago. The chart he shared makes this clear, showing that average sea surface temperatures have moved out of “abnormal” territory, contradicting two years of sensational headlines.

What the data shows

This chart summarizes sea surface temperature data from NOAA and the University of Maine Climate Change Institute, plotting daily sea surface temperature readings from 60°S to 60°N, covering a large swath of Earth's oceans. The most striking feature is the orange 2023 line, which shows significant warmth – well above the 1991-2020 baseline average – and then gradually declines. Data for 2024 (dark red) followed suit, falling steadily back to levels not seen since 2015.

Vinos describes this trend as part of “how little is known about natural climate change,” a statement that should be taped to the desk of every climate modeler and policymaker. The graph itself illustrates the point well: the chaotic, sinuous lines from year to year reveal the natural ebb and flow of ocean temperatures, contrasting with the popular narrative that climate change follows a simple linear trajectory of doom.

The exaggeration of the past two years

In 2023, the discussion about ocean temperatures reached a fever pitch. Every spike in temperature is described as an existential crisis. Headlines report unprecedented marine heat waves, ecosystems being pushed to the edge, and melting polar ice accelerating sea level rise. Words like “record breaking” and “new normal” are thrown around with abandon.

However, we now have a situation where average sea surface temperatures have plummeted to levels last seen nearly a decade ago. What does this tell us? Ocean temperature fluctuations. Long-term trends are more complex than alarmists would have you believe. Perhaps most importantly, overconfidence in computer models and myopic focus on short-term anomalies is simply misplaced.

Misunderstandings about natural variation

Vinos's choice of words – “very little is known about natural climate change” – gets to the heart of the matter. Despite decades of research and countless billions of dollars spent, the science of climate change remains rife with uncertainty. Climate models have difficulty replicating observed phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multilayered Decadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Take the unseasonably warm 2023, for example. It coincides with a strong El Niño event, which naturally warms surface waters in the Pacific and affects global weather patterns. While the media cites this as evidence of man-made warming, much of it may be due to this completely natural phenomenon.

Furthermore, the complexities of ocean-atmosphere interactions, deep ocean currents, and solar variability remain poorly understood. Therefore, the idea that we can attribute every phenomenon on the chart to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is not only reductive, but also scientifically irresponsible.

The danger of overreaction

The problem with climate hyperbole is not just that it’s wrong, but also that it leads to bad policy. Over the past two years, countries have doubled down on costly decarbonization efforts, citing “unprecedented” ocean temperatures. Policies like “net zero” that aim to completely eliminate the use of fossil fuels have disrupted energy markets, driven up inflation and pushed millions into energy poverty – all in the name of “saving the planet” .

But what if this warming is primarily a natural phenomenon? What if the temperature spike of 2023 is just another bump in the chaotic rhythm of natural change? Billions of dollars spent on “fixing” the climate, then, would constitute a colossal waste, solving a problem that either doesn’t exist or is never fully understood.

Lessons for the future

Vinos’ tweet and accompanying data underscore the need for humility in climate science and policymaking. The complex interactions between factors affecting ocean temperature cannot be explained by simplistic explanations and linear trends. Rather than rushing to declare every fluctuation a crisis, we should acknowledge that significant uncertainty remains and take a more cautious approach to science and policy.

Policymakers would do well to remember the following:

1. Natural variation is not a mistake; This is a function Earth's climate system.
2. Short-term trends do not equal long-term trajectories. Two years of abnormal temperatures does not prove climate catastrophe, just as a return to 2015 levels does not prove climate catastrophe.
3. Correlation is not causation. Rising temperatures do not mean that human activity is the only or even primary cause.
4. Preventative policies are not free. When governments adopt drastic measures such as net zero emissions without understanding the bigger picture, the economic and social consequences can be severe.

in conclusion

The chart shared by Javier Vinos should serve as a wake-up call to those caught up in the climate hysteria of the past two years. While it's easy to view every rise in temperature as evidence of impending doom, the reality is much more nuanced. Ocean temperatures are now back to 2015 levels, a stark reminder of the chaotic, unpredictable nature of the climate system.

In the end, the greatest threat to rational policy is not rising temperatures but the relentless tide of hyperbole that drowns out careful analysis and critical thinking. If we truly want to solve environmental challenges, we must first learn to differentiate between signal and noise. As the latest data shows, there's a lot more noise out there than we thought.

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