Is climate policy due for a break? – Watt?

The week between Christmas and New Year is a special time – a liminal space where the usual madness of modern life pauses and reflection takes center stage. For many, now is the time to step back, take stock, and plan for the year ahead. This tradition can do wonders for climate policy, where hasty decisions and dogmatic thinking often dominate conversations. Maybe it’s time for climate policy to take a break.

In a field driven by alarmist narratives and speculative science, the concept of a pause—a true break to reassess—is desperately needed. Policies based on climate models filled with uncertainty may do harm as well as any good. Instead of doubling down on net-zero emissions mandates or renewable energy quotas, policymakers can use this downtime to ask: Are these policies actually benefiting humanity, or are they paving the way for unintended consequences?

Pause to reflect on predictions

Climate policy is often based on dire predictions that never come true. As we move into 2025, it’s worth recalling the many doomsday predictions that have come to nothing. Take, for example, claims that Pacific islands will now be submerged or that Arctic ice will disappear entirely. Instead, the islands remain habitable, polar bears still roam the Arctic, or any of the many other failures seen on the WUWT's own timeline of failure predictions.

Policymakers rarely acknowledge these glaring mistakes. Instead, they are doubling down, basing policy on models that overestimate warming and underestimate humanity’s ability to adapt. Shouldn’t this year-end holiday season be the perfect opportunity to re-evaluate these models and their real-world records? If climate science cannot reliably predict the future, why do we treat it like a crystal ball?

This holiday pause could also be a time to question whether the harm caused by rushed climate policies outweighs its intended benefits. Think of lives disrupted by soaring energy costs, industries paralyzed by overregulation, and developing countries stalled in their pursuit of prosperity—all based on uncertain forecasts.

Energy Policy: Common Sense Season

Winter is the time when the consequences of misguided energy policy are most apparent. With many families struggling to heat their homes amid skyrocketing energy prices, it's clear that the push for unreliable wind and solar power has left many vulnerable. Policymakers often view these difficulties as “necessary sacrifices,” but what are the sacrifices for? If the goal is to mitigate future harm, why ignore the real harm happening now?

Imagine if policymakers spent a week in the shoes of an average household – choosing between heating and buying groceries – or a business owner facing closure due to unsustainable energy costs. These first-hand experiences may prompt a more balanced approach: prioritizing reliable energy sources, such as natural gas or nuclear power, over intermittent and expensive renewable energy sources.

Learning from 2024: A year of policy uncertainty

The contradictions in global climate policy were once again on display last year at COP29 in Baku. As delegates take to private jets to lecture the world about emissions, Europe's energy crisis continues to highlight the fragility of green energy systems. From Germany’s backsliding on phasing out coal to California’s rolling blackouts, 2024 is a banner year for how uncertainty-based policies fail in practice.

These examples highlight a fundamental problem: Climate policies often ignore the real-world trade-offs they impose. Leaders talk about “saving the planet,” but their actions reveal priorities that are out of touch with the needs of ordinary people. Taking a “sabbatical” allows climate policymakers to reflect on whether their policies are doing more harm than good – especially for the world’s most vulnerable.

Climate Policy New Year’s Resolutions

As we head into 2025, it’s time for climate policy to adopt some New Year’s resolutions. Here are some ideas worth considering:

1. acknowledge uncertainty: Recognize the large gaps between climate models and predictions and adjust policies to reflect this uncertainty.
2. stop hurting poor people: Reassessing how policies like carbon taxes and renewable energy mandates disproportionately impact low-income households and developing countries.
3. Support energy innovation: Shift the focus from limiting energy use to encouraging technological advances in nuclear power, clean coal, and other practical solutions.
4. Ending the culture of alarmism: Replace the constant clamor for disaster with a balanced discussion about risks and opportunities.

in conclusion

A pause in reflection does not mean abandoning environmental stewardship. Rather, it is about taking a more considered approach—weighing the costs and benefits of each policy. Now is the time to stop rushing to achieve uncertain goals and instead prioritize solutions that meet current needs without mortgaging the future.

Should climate policy be paused? Absolutely. Because sometimes, the most productive thing you can do is stop, reflect, and reconsider. Let 2025 be the year we replace reckless promises with rational action, and in doing so create a better path forward for everyone.

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