International regulators say California grid is at risk of energy shortages – What does Watt have to say?

from climaterealism

Guest post by Kenneth Schrupp

Editor's note: California has long been the poster child for bad energy policy. Its policies and regulations to combat climate change have led to higher energy prices in the state than in any state except Hawaii, and power shortages and blackouts have become a fact of life in California every summer. As the state encourages people to buy electric vehicles (EVs) and appliances, and will actually enforce such purchases in the near future, governments are often forced to ask EV owners not to charge their vehicles at certain times to keep the lights on. The guest post below shows that Heartland is not the only organization to acknowledge that California’s power supply situation is untenable.

exist A recent study from the Heartland Institute Some of the specific problems utilities face as they push for net-zero emissions targets are of their own making. If utilities continue to prioritize fighting climate change over providing dispatchable, reliable, affordable power, California is a harbinger of what’s to come. California’s utilities have no such choice because their power supply decisions are driven by progressive state legislators and regulators. However, the rest of the United States is not necessarily California.

(The Center Square) — International regulators warn that California’s energy grid is at risk of energy shortages in 2029, noting that increased electrification of buildings and transportation is driving energy demand as reliable baseline natural gas power is replaced. Rapid growth.

“Growing demand and planned generator retirements will cause energy adequacy risks to re-emerge in the coming years,” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the federally appointed international grid regulator, wrote in its latest grid reliability report. “Have A resource portfolio that includes large amounts of solar energy [panels]the risk of supply shortages is associated with the evening hours of summer, when demand is high and solar output is reduced.

The NERC report noted that while the grid covering most of California, Nevada and parts of Baja Mexico has provided new energy through solar and batteries, the retirement of natural gas generation that can operate at any time of day regardless of weather , which may cause shortages.

“The analysis assumes projected demand increases of 3.5 GW, significant resource additions (4.6 GW solar PV, 7.6 GW batteries, and 0.8 GW natural gas imports from repowering coal-fired units in Utah), and more than 3 projects Retired gas-fired generation capacity reaches GW,” NERC continued. “As demand grows and resource mix becomes increasingly variable, periods of supply shortages are likely.”

The report says that after 2034, unless new planned resources are added, the region will not have sufficient reserve capacity to exceed the reference margin level (i.e. excess generation beyond peak demand to ensure reliable operation). It also said that if new resources do not come online on time, the region will need to import more energy from elsewhere by 2029, which could become a problem if other regions also face the pain of transitioning to intermittent energy.

“Total peak internal demand is expected to grow from approximately 56.4 GW in 2024 to 69.1 GW in 2034, with load growth of 22.5% over the forecast period,” NERC wrote. “Transportation and building electrification are the main drivers of demand growth. driving force.”

The report said California is most likely to face grid issues each September between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m., when the sun can't provide as much energy but demand is still high.

California must spend $20 billion to upgrade its transmission system to be able to power electric vehicles, a figure that does not include further upgrades to electrify buildings; most new residential parking spaces by 2026, according to a Berkeley study Electric vehicle chargers will be required, and all new cars in the state must be zero-emission by 2035.

Starting in 2035, all new cars in the state must be zero-emission. From 2026, most new residential parking spaces will need to be equipped with electric vehicle chargers.

A major round of grid upgrades will come from a $15 billion loan from the Department of Energy to Pacific Gas and Electric Co., which provides transmission, battery storage and hydropower upgrades to 19 million Californians, or about half the state's population. PGE increased energy prices by 127% between January 2014 and 2024, according to the California Public Utilities Commission, which regulates the state's utilities.

Since PGE rates are currently 40 cents per kWh, they will soon reach a break-even point of 50 cents per kWh, at which point it will cost more to drive a Tesla Model 3 on electronics than to drive a Toyota Camry on gasoline .

Relevant