Global warming will lead to a surge in crime – does Watt have anything to say about this?

Article by Eric Worrell

“…people are spending more time outdoors…they are more likely to go to the beach or park…which means their homes will be left unattended…”

Crime changes: Surprising link between rising temperatures and rising crime rates

As temperatures continue to soar, a sobering study has found that climate change will lead to 72,000 new crimes in Australia each year.

Adelaide Long
January 5, 2025 – 5:00 pm

Australia will have to deal with an additional 1.64 million crimes caused by climate change over the remainder of this century, a shocking study has found.

Researchers Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Russell Smyth and Trong-Anh Trinh came to this shocking conclusion after matching weather data to crime rates over an 18-year period.

Their paper, Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia, found that an increase in extreme heat events in Australia would lead to an additional 72,000 crime incidents each year.

If emissions continue to rise as expected, there will be about 1.64 million new crimes per year for the rest of the 21st century.

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A study published in 2022 analyzed data from 171 countries over a decade and found a positive correlation between rising temperatures and homicide rates.

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Read more: https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/crimeate-change-shock-link- Between-rising-Temperatures-and-rising-crime-rates/news-story/ dc0d219339b5a4bd9ac179440841696a

reference research;

Crime, weather and climate change in Australia*

Serfa Avavoy Churchill, Russell Smith, Zheng Zhengying

First published: January 30, 2023

RMIT promotes open access publishing as part of an agreement between Wiley and RMIT University through the Australian Council of University Librarians.

abstract

We estimate the effect of temperature on monthly crime rates using a panel dataset that matches weather to crime rates for more than 3,000 Australian postcode areas between 2001 and 2019. We find that an increase in the standard deviation of the mean temperature is associated with an increase in crime rates of 0.008–0.011 standard deviations, depending on the specification. This means that there are more than 72,000 new crime cases in Australia every year. We estimate that climate change will result in approximately 1.64 million new crimes over the remainder of this century, assuming business as usual.

Learn more: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12720

This study offers an interesting explanation for why crime spikes in hot weather;

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[T]The likelihood of punishment is a direct function of police deterrence if Police reduce patrols in hot weather. Given that police officers earn a fixed hourly wage, if it is more expensive to work on hot days, then a simple principal/agent model would predict that they would put in less effort on hot days. It's more comfortable to be in an air-conditioned office or police car.

Temperature also affects the expected costs of property crimes such as burglary, although the relationship is less clear. If people spend more time outdoors in hot weather – for example, if they are more likely to go to the beach or park to soak up the sun, or to escape the heat in an air-conditioned shopping mall – this means their homes will be left unattended and reduce the likelihood of potential thieves being caught. However, during uncomfortably hot weather, people may prefer to stay indoors with the air conditioning on. If there is a positive relationship between weather and time spent outdoors, it may increase the likelihood of detecting an outdoor crime, thereby increasing the expected costs of outdoor crime.

Research also proves Temperature affects judicial decision-making As such, the likelihood of conviction and/or sentence and/or fine may be affected (see, For example., Heyes & Saberian, 2019).4 However, body temperature at trial or at sentencing is not in the information set of a person considering committing a crime and should not influence the decision to engage in illegal activity (Heyes & Saberian, 2019). et al., 2021).

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Learn more: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12720

The premise that warm weather is a major driver of criminal activity is absurd. Countries with hot climates like democratic Singapore, and Arab Gulf states like Dubai and Saudi Arabia, have no problem maintaining low crime rates.

I agree that there is a problem with the motivation of the Australian police, but my personal experience is that the low motivation of the Australian police is not caused by the warming weather.

I live in a quiet country town, but two years ago a couple of teenagers rode down the street on their motorcycles, stabbing the vehicle's tires before rushing off to their next victim. They use a narrow blade, so it's not immediately obvious what's going on.

Everyone was furious and especially frightened when we heard from neighbors that one of the thugs had threatened an elderly pensioner couple with a knife. People began to organize to find the criminals. I said to the police “if we catch them we will bring them to you”.

“There is no point in bringing them to us. There is nothing we can do about it, they will be out the next day”, the policeman replied. Sure enough, a few months later, a police officer called me. Police go through the motions, but judges impose non-custodial sentences and the perpetrators are back on the streets less than a week after their arrest.

What was the motivation for those police officers enduring discomfort on a hot day?

I don't blame the judge – I'm sure the judge applied the letter of the law correctly. But Australia is a signatory to a United Nations convention that discourages the incarceration of minors, allowing hardened recidivist juvenile offenders to do as they please until they actually kill someone.

Low crime rates in hot countries like Singapore and the Persian Gulf countries at least prove that weather is not the only factor. In my opinion, low crime rates in hot climate countries with strong deterrence cultures prove that Western countries can do more to deter crime, regardless of the weather.

I think the disappointing narrative that hot weather is a problem because people are more likely to go out and enjoy themselves puts the onus on changing behavior to the wrong people.

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