Were the Los Angeles fires inevitable? – Watt?

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog

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The weather forecast for the Los Angeles area on Tuesday and Wednesday is nearly perfect.

High-resolution models, such as the NWS HRRR model, predict very strong winds and low relative humidity, with wind speeds in excess of 60 mph predicted. The area has been very dry over the past few months, with almost no rain.

NOAA's HRRR model forecast for wildfire potential Monday shows Very Values ​​are higher in the Pacific Palisades region (see below). It's hard to imagine doing it better.

The National Weather Service has an ominous forecast for wildfire dangers. I blogged about this on Monday because I was worried.

However, despite all these warnings, a fire (actually three fires) broke out, killing at least five people. More than a thousand homes were destroyed. Losses could easily reach into the billions of dollars. The story isn't over yet.

Have local governments done enough to prevent this anticipated disaster? Should Southern California Edison be more aggressive in shutting off power?

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The size of the Palisade Fire this afternoon is shown in the map below and is currently approximately 16,000 acres.

There were two other fires, the Easton Fire and the Hurst Fire.

Strong winds predicted for Monday were confirmed.

Here are the maximum wind gusts for yesterday and today. Yesterday, speeds in the mountains northeast of Malibu were as high as 98 mph, and today they were as high as 89 mph.

Relative humidity is also very low.

Tuesday’s windiest

Maximum wind force at noon on Wednesday

We know the fire started around 10:30am yesterday (Tuesday) not far from the Summit community (see map)

The biggest problem is ignition. What started the fire?

Given the history of such fires, the most likely cause was sparks from electrical wires, followed by arson. Eventually, we'll find out.

If the igniting wires were the cause, Southern California Edison needs to explain why it didn't shut off power to the entire threatened area. As shown below, photos from a plane landing last night show that neighborhoods near the fire still have power.

Even Edison's own morning map showed that large areas near the fires (and high winds) were still powered.

It's just frustrating… such a good weather forecast but still such an unfortunate outcome. We need to do better.

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