We’re close to a blackout now – but what about 2030? – Watt?

not many people know

Paul Homewood

https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/ Generation-by-fuel-type

Electricity demand peaked last night at nearly 48 GW, but winds were light today and power supply will be tight again tonight.

No doubt we will muddle through again, but no one in the media seems to have pointed out the elephant in the room; the fact that as we move to heat pumps and electric vehicles, electricity demand will start to rise rapidly.

The “Future Energy Scenario” released by State Grid last year predicted that peak demand will increase to 65 GW in 2030 and 81 GW in 2035:

https://www.neso.energy/publications/future-energy-scenarios-fes

Even with 9 GW of interconnector capacity and our entire CCGT fleet operating at full capacity, we'd be lucky to get 50 GW at the moment. (On Tuesday, due to power outages, the I/C was operating at approximately 6 GW of capacity).

However, there are currently no plans to build new gas capacity, Hinkley Point C's power generation will barely offset the closure of the old nuclear power station, and the planned additional wind capacity will only provide a few gigabytes at best on a windless day like today. Watts of electricity.

It's not just a matter of odd peak demand times. FES already assumes that there will be a lot of demand smoothing, EV charging at night, etc., so daily miles driven will be much lower than today.

Over the past 24 hours, demand averaged 39 GW. On a pro-rata basis, the 81 GW in 2035 is likely to be at least 67 GW.

For example, FES calculates that residential heat pumps will consume 40 terawatt hours per year by 2035, and about 8 terawatt hours per month in winter. The calculation comes to 11 GW, possibly more in very cold weather. This is assuming they run evenly 24 hours a day, which is an optimistic assumption.

Electric vehicles will also significantly increase electricity demand during off-peak periods.

Therefore, daily demand during cold weather could exceed 70 GW. While pumped hydro and batteries may provide assistance for an hour or two in the evening, they then need to be recharged and therefore will not provide any assistance within 24 hours.

Instead, we still need at least 70 GW of dispatchable generation capacity.

Currently we only have 40 gigawatts.

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