The death toll from the catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles has risen to 24 and is expected to continue to rise. The Eaton Fire killed 16 people directly, making it the fifth deadliest wildfire in California, while the Palisades Fire killed eight people and was the state's 14th deadliest wildfire.
However, once the health effects of toxic smoke from fires become clearer, the total number of deaths from disasters is likely to be higher. As a disaster of this magnitude causes massive disruption to people's lives, many more deaths are expected in the coming years, similar to what is observed after major hurricanes, which cause thousands of indirect deaths As many as 15 people died.
Wildfire smoke deadly
“Our research suggests that more people may die from smoke in fires than from the fires themselves,” Marshall Burke, an associate professor of earth system science at Stanford University, wrote in a 2020 policy report written in English. There were far more people, and many would have died in the fire.
Smoke from wildfires contains high concentrations of PM2.5, with particles no larger than 2.5 microns in diameter. These particles have long been linked to an increased risk of illness and death because they are small enough to enter the lungs and bloodstream, damaging the cardiovascular and respiratory systems.
A 2024 study, “Mortality from PM2.5 in California Wildland Fires, 2008 to 2018,” found that in 2018, the year that Paradise and several other communities burned, smoke from wildfires may have caused More than 10 people died prematurely.
Research shows that wildfire smoke may have caused more than 52,000 premature deaths in California over the 11 years between 2008 and 2018, an average of nearly 5,000 deaths per year, with an economic impact of more than $430 billion associated with these deaths.
This problem extends beyond California. A 2024 paper, “Long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 and mortality in the contiguous United States,” found that long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke may have caused more than 11,000 deaths per year between 2007 and 2020. , 46,000 to 99,000 people die each year from inhaling PM2.5 released by wildfires, with approximately 13% of these deaths according to a 2024 study “Attributing Human Deaths from Fire PM2.5 to Climate Change” Attributable to climate change.
The future impact of wildfire smoke on global warming is of great concern. A 2024 paper, “The Mortality Burden from Wildfire Smoke Under Future Climate Change,” found that under a warming scenario, increased wildfire smoke in the United States due to climate change could lead to 27,800 deaths per year by 2050. causing losses of US$244 billion. That's a 76% increase compared to the estimated average from 2011 to 2020, the authors wrote.
“Our study shows that the health costs of wildfire smoke caused by climate change may be one of the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the United States,” the authors added.
Buildings release toxic smoke when burning
Millions of people in the Los Angeles area experienced two days of heavy smoke, causing air quality at the peak of the fires to be in the red “unhealthy” range and even in the “hazardous” range near the fires. These air quality ratings only consider the small particles the EPA monitors: PM2.5 (particles 2.5 microns or smaller in diameter). Because of the urban nature of these fires, last week's “unhealthy” air quality ratings did not take into account the clearly toxic components of the smoke.
A similar incident occurred during the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, California, which burned more than 18,000 structures: Significantly increased levels of lead and zinc were detected in the air. The presence of lead is particularly concerning because it has been linked to high blood pressure, reproductive effects and cancer. Infants and young children are particularly sensitive to low levels of lead, which is known to cause behavioral changes and learning deficits. Additionally, wildfire smoke contains toxic carcinogens similar to those found in tobacco smoke.
Hundreds of Californians could die prematurely from smoke inhalation in the coming years as large numbers of people were exposed to dangerous toxic smoke from last week's fires. Of particular concern is the situation of many elderly or sick people who were evacuated and forced to breathe high concentrations of toxic fumes from burning buildings and vehicles. News footage of dozens of nursing home residents in wheelchairs, exposed on smoke-filled streets, is particularly heartbreaking as it becomes clear that these vulnerable groups will inevitably suffer high rates of health complications in the coming weeks. and death.
“Short-term (days or weeks) exposure to wildfire smoke is strongly associated with increased severity of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and COVID-19; inflammation or infection, including bronchitis and pneumonia; emergency room visits; California Air Resources The committee said it has Spanish-language resources.
Additionally, a 2024 study reported that “long-term exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with higher mortality from a variety of diseases, including cardiovascular disease, ischemic disease (related to blood flow), digestive system disease, endocrine disease disease and chronic kidney disease.
The spread of infectious diseases after disasters
The spread of infectious diseases among evacuees will also have an impact. January is the peak of flu season, and California is facing “very high” case numbers, according to the CDC. Influenza and COVID-19 are expected to spread rapidly among tens of thousands of displaced people in shelters or temporary housing.
Comparison to post-hurricane excess mortality: Thousands more expected to die
A shocking study, Deaths from Tropical Cyclones in the United States, published in 2024 by Rachel Young and Solomon Tsiang, showed that hurricanes that made landfall in the United States between 1930 and 2015 caused an average of 24 direct deaths. However, they observed a significant increase in excess deaths (more deaths than expected for that period) that continued 15 years after the hurricanes, with each hurricane causing a total of 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths. This impact is 300-480 times greater than the government's estimated direct death toll, equivalent to 3.2-5.1% of all deaths in the continental United States.
The highest mortality rates were from cardiovascular disease (36 percent) and cancer at 12 percent, “consistent with evidence that stress from extreme weather events affects long-term health,” the authors wrote.
Young and Tsiang identified five ways hurricanes can cause excess deaths. Four of these factors may apply to catastrophic wildfire events like the one California just experienced:
- Economic damage: It may alter household economic decisions, ultimately leading to worse health outcomes. For example, a person who loses his or her job may also lose health insurance, or retirement savings may be used to repair property damage, thereby reducing resources for future medical expenses.
- Changes in social networks: They may affect future health. For example, people of working age may move, disrupting the social support networks of older people who remain in the area.
- Fiscal adjustments by local or state governments: In response to disasters, these adjustments may affect long-term health outcomes. For example, restructuring budgets to support recovery could reduce spending on health infrastructure.
- High physical and mental stress: In the long term, this may change health outcomes.
- Changes in the natural environment: This factor applies primarily to floods and has less to do with forest fires. For example, ecological changes may redistribute disease vectors or exposure to harmful chemicals due to flooding.
In the context of the California fires, the first four factors represent considerable risks that could result in thousands of indirect deaths in the coming years.
How you can help
In addition to sending prayers and positive thoughts to the victims of the Los Angeles fires, I have been supporting multiple charities. I encourage everyone to help in any way you can. Below I've shared links to two organizations I've contributed to:
https://www.paypal.com/donate?campaign_id=EBG2VCFWZ566E
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