Many mainstream media uncritically echoed the statement that 2024 is the “hottest year on record.” For example, CNN reported with the title “2024 Confirmed as the Hottest Year on Record Globally” and the BBC reported with the headline Claim: “2024 confirmed as hottest year on record.”
When these media reports are examined within the long-term historical context of available global temperature data, it is clear: These claims lack the certainty claimed by the headlines and are likely to be false or exaggerated.
Close inspection reveals that such claims are largely based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS), a European organization but only one of several global temperature monitoring systems.
Their press release “2024 – the second record-breaking year after the extraordinary 2023” was immediately repeated by media outlets around the world.
CCCS said:
- 2024 is the hottest year in the multi-dataset global temperature record dating back to 1850.
- The global average temperature in 2024 will be 15.10°C; 0.12°C higher than the historical highest value in 2023.
- The temperature in 2024 will be 0.72°C higher than that in 1991–The average temperature in 2020 was 1.60°C higher than before industrialization, the first year in history to exceed this level by 1.5°C
However, these numbers differ from other sources, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data set.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports:
“2024 is the hottest year since global records began in 1850, with temperatures 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This is higher than last year's record out of 0.10°C (0.18°F). The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred in the past decade (2015 to 2024).
Although NOAA repeated its statement of “the hottest year on record,” Their numbers differ from those of Copernicus, undermining confidence in the accuracy of global average temperature measurements in 2024as well as any record-breaking claims from different data measurements.
Furthermore, these claims completely ignore evidence-based research, such as the ground station project conducted by the Heartland Institute, which demonstrates the urban heat island effect and the poor placement of temperature stations used to measure temperature, making it impossible to obtain long-term temperature data. , The cause of recent warming may be as much as 50%, with the remainder likely to be partly or entirely natural, driven for example by El Niño events.
It's also worth noting that the term “warmest year on record” usually refers to a record that spans about 150 years – a blink of an eye in geological time. Paleoclimatological evidence shows that the Earth experienced a period of significant increases in temperature long before the Industrial Revolution.
For example, during the Emei Interglacial Period about 120,000 years ago, Global temperatures were equal to or even exceeded current levels.
The picture below comes from a scientific study called “The 485-Million-Year History of Earth's Surface Temperature.”
How quickly they forget: The media confirmed that the earth is not abnormally warm, but is in the coldest period in 485 million years.
Agency data also shows Despite significantly lower carbon dioxide levels, more recent periods such as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Optimum may have had temperatures comparable to or even higher than today.
While eager to blame climate change for temperatures in 2024, the media also underestimated the impact of natural climate phenomena such as El Niño on temperatures in 2023 and 2024. .
The 2023-2024 El Niño event is the main cause of recent global temperature anomalies, with many reports stating that it has significantly increased global temperatures Compared to the neutral ocean mode state, Making 2024 one of the hottest years on record;This is due to Increased ocean surface temperatures associated with El Niño add to the overall heating of the climate system.
Ocean temperatures will drop significantly after the end of the El Niño event in 2023-2024, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. This cooling trend is particularly pronounced in the eastern and central tropical Pacific.
NOAA reports that by December 2024, La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in these areas, have developed.
Oceans are considered to have the greatest impact on atmospheric temperature because they absorb most of the solar radiation and act as a huge heat reservoir, storing and distributing heat through ocean currents to regulate global climate; This means that changes in ocean temperatures can significantly affect overall atmospheric temperatures.
It stands to reason, therefore, that global atmospheric temperatures are likely to decrease in 2025 as the oceans cool.
In summary, although global temperatures have gradually increased in recent decades, It's unclear whether the unequivocal description of 2024 as the “warmest year on record” is justified, or whether this is just a temporary anomaly that reflects in part a combination of natural conditions and man-made measurement errors.
What is clear is that, regardless of global average temperatures, human well-being has never been better.
According to Our World in Data, average lifespan has more than doubled during recent warming. Additionally, deaths from extreme weather have dropped significantly, as have temperature-related deaths, as cold kills more people than warm.
CNN and the BBC do a disservice to viewers by failing to place their claims within the broader historical context of long-term temperatures and data, and by downplaying or ignoring completely natural weather phenomena and questionable temperature measurement conditions that affect temperature measurements when making temperature claims. great harm.
Approaches that consider comprehensive scientific data, historical context and natural variability will provide a more accurate and less alarming understanding of Earth's climate dynamics.
Unfortunately, as Climate Realism has proven time and time again, the media seems more interested in pushing the climate apocalypse narrative than actually reporting the complex truths about climate.
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