No, CNN and BBC, considering all the available evidence, isn’t 2024 the “hottest year on record”?

Some mainstream media uncritically echoed that 2024 is the “hottest year on record.” For example, CNN reported with the title “2024 Confirmed as the World's Hottest Year in History” and the BBC claimed that 2024 will be the hottest year in history. It was the “warmest year on record.” When these media reports are examined within the long-term historical context of available global temperature data, it becomes clear that these claims lack the certainty claimed by the headlines and may be false or exaggerated.

Close inspection reveals that such claims are largely based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS), a European organization but only one of several global temperature monitoring systems. Their press release “2024 – the second record-breaking year after the extraordinary 2023” was immediately repeated by media outlets around the world.

CCCS said:

• 2024 is the hottest year in the multi-dataset global temperature record dating back to 1850.
• The global average temperature in 2024 will be 15.10°C; 0.12°C higher than the historical highest value in 2023.
• The temperature in 2024 will be 0.72°C higher than that in 1991–The average temperature in 2020 was 1.60°C higher than before industrialization, the first year in history to exceed this level by 1.5°C

However, these numbers differ from other sources, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data set. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports:

2024 was the hottest year since global records began in 1850, with temperatures 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.10°C (0.18°F) higher than last year's record. The 10 warmest years in the 175-year record have all occurred in the past decade (2015 to 2024).

While NOAA repeated the “warmest year on record” claim, their numbers differed from those of Copernicus, undermining confidence in the accuracy of global average temperature measurements in 2024 and their differing figures. Any record-breaking claims from measurements.

Furthermore, these claims completely ignore evidence-based research, such as the Ground Station Project conducted by the Heartland Institute, which demonstrates the urban heat island effect and the poor placement of temperature stations used to measure temperature from which long-term temperature data are derived data.

It's also worth noting that the term “warmest year on record” usually refers to a record that spans about 150 years – a blink of an eye in geological time. Paleoclimatological evidence shows that the Earth experienced a period of significant increases in temperature long before the Industrial Revolution. For example, during the Emean interglacial about 120,000 years ago, global temperatures were equal to or even exceeded today's levels.

The picture below comes from a scientific study called “The 485-Million-Year History of Earth's Surface Temperature.”

How quickly they forget: The media confirmed that the earth is not abnormally warm, but is in the coldest period in 485 million years. Proxy data also suggest that temperatures during more recent periods such as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Optimum may have been comparable to or even higher than today, despite significantly lower carbon dioxide levels.

While eager to blame climate change for temperatures in 2024, the media also underestimated the impact of natural climate phenomena such as El Niño on temperatures in 2023 and 2024. . The 2023-2024 El Niño event is the main cause of recent global temperature anomalies, with many reports stating that it significantly increased global temperatures compared with neutral ocean model states, making 2024 one of the hottest years on record; This is due to El Niño causing higher ocean surface temperatures, adding to the overall heating of the climate system.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ocean temperatures will drop significantly after the 2023-2024 El Niño event ends. This cooling trend is particularly pronounced in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. NOAA reports that by December 2024, La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in these areas, have developed.

Oceans are considered to have the greatest influence on atmospheric temperature because they absorb most of the solar radiation and act as a huge heat reservoir, storing and distributing heat through ocean currents to regulate global climate; this means that changes in ocean temperature can significantly affect the overall Atmospheric temperature. It stands to reason, therefore, that global atmospheric temperatures are likely to decrease in 2025 as the oceans cool.

All in all, while global temperatures have gradually increased in recent decades, it is unclear whether the unequivocal description of 2024 as the “warmest year on record” is justified, or rather whether this is a temporary anomaly. phenomenon, partly reflecting the combined effects of natural conditions and climate change.

What is clear is that, regardless of global average temperatures, human well-being has never been better. According to Our World in Data, average lifespan has more than doubled during recent warming. Additionally, deaths from extreme weather have dropped significantly, as have temperature-related deaths, as cold kills more people than warm.

CNN and the BBC fail to place their claims into the broader context of long-term temperature and data history, and downplay or ignore completely natural weather phenomena and problematic temperature measurement conditions that can affect temperature measurements, to the dismay of viewers. great harm. Approaches that consider comprehensive scientific data, historical context and natural variability will provide a more accurate and less alarming understanding of Earth's climate dynamics.

Unfortunately, as Climate Realism has proven time and time again, the media seems more interested in pushing the climate apocalypse narrative than actually reporting the complex truths about climate.

Anthony Watts

Anthony Watts is a senior fellow in environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Since 1978, Watts has been in the weather business both in front of and behind the camera as a live television meteorologist and currently oversees daily broadcast forecasts. He created television weather graphics presentation systems, professional weather instruments, and co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He runs the world's most viewed climate website, the award-winning wattsupwiththat.com.

Originally published in Climaterealism

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