Alarmist scientist Daniel Swain demonizes “natural climate change”, calling it a “hydro-climate shock”! – Watt?

Jim Steele

Daniel Swain is a good meteorologist, but as a disciple of notorious climate alarmists like Noah Diffenbaugh and Michael Mann, he often spreads Propaganda from climate alarmists. His latest paper advances this narrative: Global warming is exacerbating dangerous 'hydroclimate whiplash' What’s spreading fear is the growing variability between wet and dry years.

Wet years are determined by measuring precipitation, while dry years are determined by measuring precipitation. Estimate changes in evapotranspiration that cannot be measured directly. There is no change in precipitation during California's wet season. Failure to measure evapotranspiration results in great uncertainty Swain's estimate of the drying trend and what he called the whiplash effect.

Swain believes that global warming is making floods and droughts more severe because A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. However, this is a irrelevant scientific facts. The huge flaw in his argument is that without moisture, the atmosphere cannot absorb more water vapor, no matter how warm it is.

Moisture availability depends on the power that transports water from the ocean to the land. Simply consider the fact that although the Sahara is very warm, its higher temperatures do not increase desert precipitation rates or evaporation rates. The dryness of the Sahara contributes to such hot temperatures.

Think about it first The natural El Niño-La Niña oscillation (Figure A) is the main driver of dry and wet changes on the Earth.. While El Niño brings heavy rains to the western United States, it's causing drought in Indonesia. El Niño events occur every 3 to 7 years, causing natural interannual wet and dry changes. also, El Niño events have increased over the past 6,000 years as the global climate has cooledlong before any changing trends could be explained by rising carbon dioxide. The Pacific also experiences El Niño-like conditions, lasting 20-30 years, and then transitions to La Niña-like conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

El Niño-La Niña oscillations also drive the Indian Ocean Dipole (Figure B), Resulting in alternating periods of extreme humidity in East Africa and the Indonesian archipelago. El Niño-La Niña oscillations also affect Atlantic climate in the following ways: The North Atlantic subtropical high strengthens or weakens (Figure C). La Niña events strengthen the center of the pressure system and move it westward.

This shift causes wetter weather in the eastern United States as atmospheric circulation pushes more moisture westward. In contrast, El Niño events weaken pressure systems and cause droughts by shifting rainfall eastward.

final consideration The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ Figure E) is the main driver of natural wet and dry changes. The ITCZ ​​is formed where the north and south trade winds meet. This convergence transports moisture-laden air upwards, where it cools and allows the moisture to drain out like rain. More than 30% of Earth's rainfall occurs beneath the ITCZ. The remaining air is now dry and circulates to the north and south. Where dry air falls, it brings dry weather, creating most of the world's deserts.

The ITCZ ​​primarily moves north and south along the seasonal path of the sun's direct rays (Figure F). As shown in Figure D, the status of the ITCZ ​​has changed over thousands of years and decades. Because the ITCZ ​​is located further north, more moisture reaches the Sahara, turning it into a lake-filled savanna that supports abundant wildlife and human tribes. As the Earth cooled 6,000 years ago, the ITCZ ​​migrated southward and rainfall in the Sahara decreased, re-forming the desert.

Likewise, ITCZ migration affects where monsoon moisture occursIn addition, the ITCZ ​​also affects the intensity of El Niño and La Niña.

Unfortunately, Swain ignores these major drivers of natural wet and dry changes, preferring to blame global warming. As a result, Swain and his fellow climate alarmists have failed to educate the public about the known causes of natural wet and dry changes. Obsessed with the belief that global warming is a climate crisis, alarmists prefer to blame it on a warming atmosphere that can hold more water vapor. They can therefore conveniently maintain their crisis narrative that paradoxically CO2 warming will lead to wetter and drier conditions and dry out the landscape, leading to more fires. This is bad science dedicated to promoting a false climate crisis agenda.

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