Despite climate scares, your cappuccino is still safe – is it worth it?

Vijay Jayaraj

A few hundred years ago, coffee was an almost unknown commodity, with few countries consuming it on a commercial scale. But today it has become a wildly popular beverage, prompting several companies to compete for the best coffee beans in the world.

It is estimated that 21 billion pounds of green coffee is produced globally each year and is grown on more than 25 million acres. The United States, Brazil and Japan are the largest coffee consumers.

Although China was late to the game, it is now driving global demand. In the 2023-2024 crop year, China's consumption will reach nearly 6 million 60kg bags, while domestic production is less than 2 million bags. The balance has been transferred.

But will this global Javanese joy be interrupted by production shortages caused by climate change? A simple Google search will yield thousands of news articles about how global warming is killing Arabica and Robusta coffee beans.

I am currently working in India where tea is king. But coffee consumption is rising and will soon reach levels in Scandinavia, Canada and Indonesia. Coincidentally, I’m writing this in a city just a few hours away from the largest coffee-growing region in the country.

Indian coffee traders say the impact of climate change is “minimal for now”.

“There are difficulties with water (and) temperature, but they have not affected production, mainly because they are not new,” Benki Coffee's Suhas Dwarkanath said.

India's commerce ministry confirmed this, allaying fears of weather disruption and predicting an increase in coffee production in 2024-25. The Indian Coffee Board has laid out a ten-year roadmap to double the country's coffee production and exports.

While focusing on the impact of weather, analysts and the media often overlook other factors that can have a significant impact on coffee crops.

Colombia, for example, has gained important benefits from improved agronomic practices. In fact, coffee crops benefit from adaptation to climate change and enhanced pest control methods. These two factors are believed to be responsible for Colombia's record coffee bean production in 2024, which is expected to be 20% higher than the previous year.

Similarly, Brazil's production increased by 32% this year. Brazil accounts for more than one-third of the global coffee supply and is the main producer of Arabica coffee beans, accounting for approximately 75% of the world's coffee production.

Worst case scenario coffee

It’s worth noting that most concerns about future temperature rises are based on faulty climate models currently used for predictions. These models are notorious for apparent errors, including exaggerating the warming effects of greenhouse gases and failing to account for other causes of warming.

Even if temperatures do rise significantly, coffee production could move to cooler regions at higher altitudes and at latitudes away from the equator. For example, areas favoring the cultivation of Arabica and Robusta coffee are alternatives to existing coffee-producing countries such as Southern California and Brazil and India.

In Colombia, researchers modeled “climate suitability and crop yields under current and future climate scenarios,” including factors such as soil constraints, pest infestation and socioeconomic factors. They found that “the foothills of the eastern Andes, the highlands of the Orinoquia region, and the humid areas of the Caribbean” would be highly favorable for coffee cultivation if average temperatures increased.

In Ethiopia, one of the world's largest coffee producers, it was found that climate change would increase the area suitable for cultivation by 44% by 2080.

Similarly, under future climate warming, it is expected that the area suitable for growing coffee on the plateau of Yunnan Province in China will increase significantly.

All of this does not take into account improved coffee hybrids that can increase yields by 30-60%. Researchers are now finding that these varieties are more resistant to climate change and pests.

I think it’s safe to say that our coffee supply is safe for the foreseeable future. So the next time you hear that emissions from internal combustion engines are jeopardizing your morning cup of coffee, take it with a grain of salt, or maybe a glass of salted caramel cappuccino.

This review was first published on american thinker January 13, 2025.

Vijay Jayaraj is a scientific research assistant carbon monoxide₂ allianceFairfax, Virginia. he He holds a master's degree in environmental science from the University of East Anglia, UK, a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, and a bachelor's degree in engineering from Anna University, India.

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