Recently, a series of mainstream news media, including USA Today, AP News, bbc futureand fast companyA large number of articles claim that the record cold and heavy snowfall across the United States in January 2025 is more or less caused by climate change, or at least this connection cannot be ruled out. [emphasis, links added]
This is wrong.
Their argument hinges on the increasingly popular but scientifically dubious idea that climate change is disrupting the polar vortexcausing cold Arctic air to move southward into mid-latitude regions such as the United States.
While this explanation neatly wraps up the narrative that “everything bad is caused by climate change”, The science supporting these claims is weak, unproven, and riddled with contradictions.
The idea that extreme cold snaps are a product of global warming runs counter to historical records and basic knowledge of atmospheric science.
These stories rely on cherry-picked data and untested theories and ignore decades of meteorological knowledge about natural climate variability.
As discussed below, there is no conclusive evidence to support these claims. instead, Mainstream media’s claims rely on flashy headlines and alarmist language, while ignoring inconvenient facts that undermine their sensational conclusions.
Let’s first summarize the claims made in these articles:
- USA Today Describing recent Arctic explosions as being caused by polar vortex disturbances, This is linked to the melting of Arctic ice allegedly caused by man-made climate change.
- AP News echoing similar ideas, indicating Rapid warming in the Arctic has destabilized the jet stream, causing cold air to “spread southward.”
- bbc future Going a step further, calling this phenomenon “climate instability” means that climate change is more likely to lead to extreme cold Destabilize established weather patterns.
- fast company Taking the same approach, arguing that “climate change is making the polar vortex worse” This claim is not only speculative, but directly contradicts other climate research.
A closer look at these claims about the link between polar vortex changes and climate change reveals obvious problems with the logic and science behind these claims.
The polar vortex is a long-standing and well-documented feature of the upper atmosphere — known decades before politicized climate scientists and media pundits began talking about climate change.
The polar vortex was first described in 1853, but After the cold snap hit North America in 2014, the term became popular in the media.
The polar vortex is a large-scale low-pressure system that forms in the stratosphere in the polar regions during winter. Its strength and location are affected by a variety of factors, including natural atmospheric changes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
When the polar vortex weakens, colder air from the Arctic drifts into midlatitudes, causing cold weather and snowstorms.
This weakening is not a new phenomenon related to climate change; This is part of natural change.
Similar cold outbreaks occurred as early as the 1970s, long before carbon dioxide levels became a focus of global policy discussions. Subsequent cold bursts led many climate scientists to begin warning of an approaching ice age. That never happened.
In fact, there is no scientific consensus on the link between Arctic warming and polar vortex behavior.
as Climate at a glance discuss, Empirical data show no consistent trends in the frequency or intensity of polar vortex disturbances over the past few decades. This contradicts the suggestion that polar vortex weakening is becoming more common due to human-induced warming.
If we put aside speculation for a moment and look at actual data, the picture becomes clearer:
- Arctic ice trends: Although Arctic ice has experienced a period of decline, recent measurements suggest the Arctic is not in a “death spiral.” Actually, Winter Arctic sea ice extent has been relatively stable since 2012. As noted, the idea that melting Arctic ice would destabilize the polar vortex simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny when examined against actual sea ice trends. Watted, It cited government data.
- extreme cold background: Historical weather data shows extreme cold events in the United States are neither new nor increasing. Cold outbreaks like the current one have been recorded regularly for at least the past two centuries, including severe winters in the late 19th and mid-20th centuries. Documentary evidence from the 18th and 17th centuries shows that extreme cold weather was common even then. The recent cold snap is noteworthy, but not unprecedented.
- Jet flow rate: Suggestions that the jet stream is becoming “fluctuating” or more unstable due to climate change are also not supported by solid evidence. A 2021 study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters established There has been no statistically significant increase in jet stream waviness or sinuosity in recent decades. Climate Overview: The Polar Vortex shows that the behavior of the jet stream, like the polar vortex itself, is driven and sustained by natural atmospheric patterns.
These media articles also ignore an uncomfortable fact: Climate models hailed as the gold standard in climate science struggle to accurately simulate the behavior of the polar vortex.
If these models cannot reliably predict polar vortex behavior in a warming world, how can we reliably link this year's cold snap to climate change? The fact is Most of these claims are based on post hoc rationalizations rather than solid science.
Take, for example, the so-called “Arctic warm, continental cold” hypothesis often used to explain these events. The theory is that Arctic warming destabilizes the polar vortex, causing more cold air to spill southward.
However, the American Meteorological Society study, titled “Evidence against a physical link between Arctic amplification and midlatitude weather“, Already discovered The connection between Arctic warming and cold outbreaks in midlatitudes is tenuous at best.
Simply put, tThis hypothesis lacks predictive power and is contradicted by many observational studies.
Additionally, another related study is the 2019 paper natural climate changetitled “Stratosphere polar vortex expected to weaken due to rising greenhouse gas emissions“ By Amy Butler and Lorenzo Polvani, it shows While some climate models show changes in polar vortex strength under warming conditions, the actual observed association between Arctic warming and midlatitude weather is inconsistent.
In short, based on existing research and data, There is no clear cause-and-effect relationship showing that climate change is causing changes in the polar vortex, its frequency, intensity, regularity or the pattern of its effects.
It’s worth noting that claims that the record cold is caused by global warming are pure satire. Mainstream media have repeatedly warned of the “end of snow” in recent decades, claiming that due to rising global temperatures, snow will become a thing of the past.
A notable example is an article from 2000 independent claim “Kids just don't know what snow is.” In addition, articles published this new york times There were warnings in 2014 and 2024 that snow would end due to global warming.
Yet here we are, in 2025, witnessing the coldest, snowiest winter in recent memory, and The narrative has conveniently shifted to the present, blaming extreme cold and snow for global warming.
This accusation of paradoxical weather phenomena—No snow/record snowfall, weaker monsoon/stronger monsoon, faster Atlantic current/slower Atlantic current, increasing drought/increased rainfall-Red flags should be raised about the credibility of these claims.
Conclusion: The media is pushing the narrative at the expense of science.
Read more Climate Realism
