The 'miracle' of green hydrogen turns out to be a phantom – can Watt get along with it?

from climaterealism

Guest post by Vijay Jayaraj

The fantasy dream of green hydrogen powering the future has become a reality. The cost of producing the much-hyped fuel will remain high for decades to come, raising hopes for its rapid adoption in the industry.

Green hydrogen startups are shutting down operations, major projects are being shelved, and investors are looking away from what was once seen as the next frontier of “renewable” energy. This should come as no surprise to anyone whose focus on fundamentals isn't diverted by the promoter's extravagant claims.

I spent a year in Aberdeen, Scotland, a city that operates one of the world’s first double-decker bus fleets powered by hydrogen. The cost of a one-way ticket is among the highest in the country. It doesn’t take an economist to tie the high fares to the eye-watering energy costs of producing hydrogen that’s priced for the average commuter. An Aberdeen family of four can take a taxi cheaply while

Welcome to the crazy world of hydrogen.

Not-so-green hydrogen

Governments, corporations and activists paint utopian visions. Entire industries from steelmaking to aviation will be revolutionized by green hydrogen. The EU earmarks billions of dollars in subsidies, while India and Australia announce ambitious plans to become global hubs for green hydrogen.

But that enthusiasm is tempered by unrelenting financial and security obstacles.

So-called green hydrogen is the form favored by environmentalists who promote the gas. What makes it green in the eyes of enthusiasts is the manufacturing process: electrolytic splitting from water using electricity generated by wind or solar energy. Never mind that there's nothing “green” about these expensive, unreliable energy sources.

Green hydrogen prices are likely to remain stubbornly stubborn for decades, new analysis predicts. Achieving production targets of under $2 per kilogram – the threshold for competitiveness with fossil fuels – is far from enough. In most parts of the world, the economics simply don't add up.

The reasons are manifold. One of the fundamental flaws of green hydrogen is its reliance on wind and solar energy, which is expensive, intermittent and unreliable.

The entire green hydrogen cycle is also inherently inefficient.

Electrolysis remains an energy-intensive process. In some cases, generating hydrogen from wind and solar energy and then using the gas to generate electricity for consumers results in a loss of 50 to 80 percent of the energy value. Add in the energy required for compression, storage and transportation, and you have a fuel that requires a lot of expensive electricity to process.

Also, hydrogen is dangerous. As a tiny molecule with low viscosity, hydrogen leaks more easily than natural gas and cannot be detected by human senses. Capable of stimulating a wide range of concentrations in the air – between 4% and 75% – hydrogen is more volatile than currently used gas fuels. “It's confusing that hydrogen gas is present in our homes, businesses, buses, trucks and airports. Indoors, it can quickly turn into an explosion hazard.”

Bloomberg’s recent exposé on green hydrogen reveals the financial toll of misplaced optimism. Startups that once had billion-dollar valuations are now scaling back or shutting down entirely. More than a fifth of Europe's clean hydrogen supply is now stalled or canceled.

In the UK, BP and Orsted abandoned green hydrogen plans and three hydrogen transport companies declared bankruptcy. Barnard predicted a “blood pool” for hydrogen transport this year, saying: “The reality in hydrogen will remain too expensive, fuel cell vehicles will remain unreliable, and actual greenhouse gas emissions are much higher than the hype.”

Investors are losing patience due to promised cost reductions and companies are struggling to deliver commercially viable projects.

The story of green hydrogen falling from grace is evocative and reminiscent of the tech bubbles of the past. We see similar patterns with first-generation biofuels and concentrated solar energy. The lesson is the same every time: We must be wary of solutions that promise to solve all of our energy challenges without confronting the fundamentals of physics and economics.

Originally posted on realclearenergy.org and republished with permission.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Assistant company₂ allianceFairfax, Virginia. he in Environmental Science from the University of East Anglia, and holds a postgraduate BA in Energy Management from Robert Gordon University, UK, and a BA in Engineering from Anna University, India.

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