Australian heat wave story police have severely criticized-Watt?

Geoff Sherrington

Now, the BOM's Meteorological Bureau has updated many daily temperature observation of many Australian Meteorological Station until the end of 2024.

In 2024, it was announced in the world as “the hottest EVAH!” Therefore, the research on Australia has now been studied. Here, the heat wave is the medium used.

The often accepted verticus is that global, the heat wave is becoming “hotter, longer, more frequent.” The following HEATWAVE Analysis did not support this verticor, which checked 10 Australian meteorological stations with long historical observation. This study produced 160 graphics, which are connected by meteorological stations/cities. This is the main part of this article for readers for inspection.

This is the snapshot of Adelaide. It only uses a 3 -day heat wave example, and there are 4 out of 16 of Adelaide.

Original data

Adjusted data

In short, you can read almost all the answers in these 4 charts, or you can read the entire 160 pictures.

Roger Pielke JR also expressed similar complications in a recent article-

“In his classic papersHow to make environmental disputes worse“Scientific policy scholar Dan Sarewitz said that this situation was” too objective “, and he described it as:

Essence Essence Essence It is not the lack of the opposite scientific knowledge, but a huge knowledge. Its components can be composed and explained in different ways to generate a competitive view that “problems” and how society should react. In short, for environmental disputes based on specific values, a group of scientific and legal facts can usually be compiled. ² ² ² ²

Climate science whip-Roger Pielke Jr.

Australia's BOM published special statements about the waves.

Special climate statement

The latest list on this list involves heat waves (including Perth and Leeuwin) in western Western Australia in November 2023. It contains this information on its 26 pages:

“In November 2023, the heat waves of the southwestern Australia, including Perth, including Perth.

Climate factors that contribute to the heat waves include recording warm global sea temperature. As the El Niini in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean Puppet Extreme and the South Circus Mode.

The heat wave conditions may challenge the disadvantaged groups, including very small children, elderly people, disabled and people with medical conditions. (These words are other places: “Severe and extreme heat waves have taken away any other natural harm to any other natural harm than Australia.”)

Compared with a world without climate change, the possibility of warm spring recorded in 2023 in the 2023 record in Western Australia exceeds 50 times the current climate record. “

Do you see Dr. Pielke's point of view? In 2023, he did not even list the first 40 3 -day heat waves for the following Leeuwin corner; it was not Perth; these two radio stations did not last for 1 day, 5 days or 10 days in the top 40 in the heat waves.

Methodism.

There are two types of observation results reported here, all from the Australian Meteorological Agency (BOM) official. First of all, there is “original” temperature data under the shorthand “CDO” for online climate data.

Online Climate Data-Map Search

Secondly, the adjustment data is used as BOM Estate-SAT, used for Australian climate observation reference network-surface air temperature-

Long-term temperature record: Australian climate observation reference network-surface air temperature

There is also a directory for the 112 options for the erase of rubber -type erase.

Number -style site catalog

The adjustment process is described in the next link. A few detailed articles were mentioned there.

Long-term temperature record: Australian climate observation reference network-surface air temperature

Over time, I have calculated and presented the heat wave map, which is the “top 40” that can be shortened in all available years and the hottest heat wave years. I did not cover 2 or more hot waves of the year. Here are only reporting every year and its hottest heat waves, and you can choose all the records of the record or the hottest 40 Heatwave years.

The heat waves here are four duration. This is a continuous 1, 3, 5 and 10 days. The hottest average level of the station was selected that year.

In a simple stage, we have 8 meteorological stations, all years and the first 40 options. The duration of its original and adjustment is level 4, which can provide 160 combinations with 10 * 2 * 2 * 4, so 160 are 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160, so 160 are of 160. Therefore, 160 are 160. Graphics.

These pictures are in the following links:

https://www.geoffstuff.com/aliceWaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/adelwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/briswaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/darwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/hobwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/longwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/leeuwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/melbwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/sydwaves.xlsx

https://www.geoffstuff.com/perwaves.xlsx

.

These 10 meteorological stations were selected from the short list of Australian stations with the earliest historical starting date and minimal data. The selected radio stations are 6 states, plus Darwin and Alice Spring, and the latter two provides better geographical coverage for Australian maps, as well as LongReach and LongReach and Cape Leeuwin, with the smallest urban hot island.

The CDO weather station of the eight inspection is:

Adelaide, # 23000 West Terrace started from 1889 until # 23090 Kent Town began in 1979.

Alice Springs, # 15540 regional office starts from 1879 until the airport began in 1942.

Bristan, the # 40214 area office has begun in 1879, and the next # 40223 starts from 1986 until # 40842 airports began in 1995.

Leeuwin angle, # 9518 lighthouse station since 1907 to this day.

Darwin, # 14019 Post Office starting from 1885 until # 04015 airport starting in 1942.

Hobart # 94029, Ellerslie RD has since since 1918, until now.

LONGREACH, # 36030 area office, starting from 1897, until 1967, # 36031 Airport.

Melbourne, the # 86071 area office starts from 1856 until the # 86338 Olympic Park started 2013.

Perth, the # 9034 area has started in 1897 until 1965 # 9021 airport.

Sydney, # 66062 Observatory started in 1859, until # 66214 Xintainea Starting 2018.

Note 1: Many of these radio stations have experienced on -site shifts. Many stations are usually from post office to the airport during the research period. This affects the distribution of these hottest heat waves. There is no reliable way to adjust it by one -step change, because now I don't know the amplitude of such steps.

Note 2: Dr. Bill Johnston, a colleague, checked the temperature results of many Australian meteorological stations (not heat waves) on his Bomwatch blog. By corrected physical rainfall, he inferred that most Australian radio stations basically did not warm up during the entire observation period.Essence It should be concluded that the heat waves did not show increased or decrease.

About-www.bomwatch.com.au

Leeuwin angle in Western Australia- www.bomwatch.com.au

..

The same 10 CDO stations are used for oak-SAT analysis. One of the main differences between the CDO and Acorn_SAT is the start date of the latter, all of which are 1910 or higher versions (Brisbane began in 1950).

..

Here I found one of the EXCEL electronic forms of the radio station (LongReach, a short one) to explain in detail that the method is 24 MB files, please allow the time.

https://www.geoffstuff.com/longheat.xlsx

This is a step description of the method I use to generate these graphics.

https://www.geoffstuff.com/myway.xlsx

Some points:

1. The data lost one day may cause damage to calculation, because this one day will affect the other 9 days in the 10 -day analysis. Therefore, all the missing values ​​are filled with subjective guessing through the surrounding baseball court or the overall average TMAX value of the station. The shortest duration of Brisbane analyzed about 50,400 days, with hundreds of missing values, so the chance of inducing errors is small. They can go back.
2. I make the Excel command as simple as possible. No need to understand macro, programming and even pivot tables. The invitation letter is used to copy your position.
3. I don't have a cherry to choose a meteorological station. These 10 cities/locations have more than 70 % of the Australian population. This is of meaning when planning heat waves, such as where to build a hospital and how much hospitals are manufactured.
4. The selected cities may be distorted by the temperature of the city heat island effect. Hengciosa has been conducted, indicating that in Sydney and Melbourne, UHI sometimes exceeds several extent. Now, I am unlikely to be affected by UHI, LEEUWIN corners and longream.

The use of climate science for the use of urban heat island is sad and misleading-Watt?

5. According to the use of actual data here, using actual data on Australia's far 10 sites, he believes that HEATWAVES becomes “hotter, longer, more frequent” misunderstandings will lack credibility. It is difficult to misunderstand when showing simple charts to those who present such claims. I am analyzing these 160 charts and should accept it.
6. Encourage you to make similar charts for regions in other places. For the heat waves, it is contrary to the official/IPCC type research. They usually start after 1950, and depend on Heatwave's Olympician definition to draw conclusions.

End.

Geoff Sherrington

the scientist,

Melbourne, Australia.

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