David Archibald
To review, oil peaks should have occurred in 2005. Then, the tight oil boom began and the Civilized Party lasted for another 20 years. The boom began in North Dakota, but reached full flower in the Permian Basin of Texas. Although a Texas county has shown that the party is over. Howard County's production has fallen faster than it has risen:
Figure 1: Howard County Oil and Gas Production
Gas production is converted to energy for oil in the oil barrel at a gas rate of 6,000 cubic feet per barrel of oil. Production peaked 18 months ago in July 2023.
Meanwhile, total oil production in Texas continues to rise:
Figure 2: Total output of the 11 largest oil-producing counties in Texas and Texas
The explanation for Howard County’s out-of-packing is found in the chart below, namely the development of the ratio of gas production to oil production. From a winding upward change to a straight decline in oil production, accompanied by a blowout in the gas-to-oil ratio means a trend decline in the fundamental process that is happening, thus causing this sudden change in the trend:
Figure 3: Howard County Gas/Petroleum Ratio 2010 – 2024
In these tight oil fields, the pressure to drive the oil out of the ground comes from thermal cracking of longer chain hydrocarbons. Due to lack of permeability, the generated oil is trapped in the rocks in rocks with higher than hydrostatic pressures. Some methane will also be produced and in the oil solution. After drilling, fracturing and producing it, the pressure in the reservoir begins to drop, and at some stage, it falls into bubbles, and the gas comes out of the solution and forms bubbles. The tiny bubbles of methane are wetter than oil and therefore pass through the rock faster. This, in turn, means that gas is preferred over oil production and that in a positive feedback loop, the pressure drop in the reservoir accelerates.
It seems that the bubble point in Howard County is reached in July 2023. As this trend breaks down, Howard County’s oil productivity drops by 150,000 barrels per day or 40% per year:
Figure 4: Howard County Daily Oil and Gas Production
Howard County's oil production tended to decline 18 months ago, while gas production went sideways. Natural gas production is also rapidly declining now.
The relationship between howard County’s gas/oil ratio and production trends also applies to some other major Texas counties. Starting from Midland County, this method can also be used as a prediction tool.
Figure 5: Midland County Gas/Petroleum Ratio 2010 – 2024
Midland County’s gas/oil ratio is not as certain as Howard County, but its lower limit breaks its lower limit.
Figure 6: Midland County Oil and Gas Production 2010 – 2024
Midland County has different oil and gas production profiles, while in Howard County production, natural gas production declines sideways.
Figure 7: Midland County Daily Oil Production 2010 – 2024
Howard County's production decline in the past 12 months was 40% or 151,000 barrels per day. In Midland County’s production profile, a 30% annual decline, resulting in a 185,000 barrels per day decline in production over the next 12 months.
Figure 8: Martin County Gas/Petroleum Ratio 2010 – 2024
Martin County is the second largest production county in Texas after Midland. This Martin County gas/oil ratio clearly undermines the uptrend.
Figure 9: Martin County Oil and Gas Production 2010 – 2024
As the overview of Midland County shows, gas production increases due to the high gas/oil ratio due to the decline in oil production.
Figure 10: Martin County Oil Production 2010 – 2024
Now, Martin County’s oil production has gradually decreased and applied an annual decline rate to 30%, with output expected to drop by 190,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.
Summary
President Trump has pledged to increase U.S. oil production by 3 million barrels a day. It was a heroic cause, given that he faced a headwind of a drop of half a million barrels a day in three Texas counties alone.
My advice to the president is to start talking about the production of synthetic fuels by applying the Bergius process to the country's coal reserves. The energy necessary for electrolysis to produce Berg plants will come from the nuclear reactor. Everyone will be happy because there will be nuclear, hydrogen and coal in one solution.
The president is particularly promising for the draft pick of Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who invested in a plutonium breeding reactor startup called Oklo. This shows that he has a complete understanding of what he needs.
David Archibald is the author of the Australian Anti-Cancer Garden.
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